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All Journal Information Technology and Telematics Dinamik Jupiter Publikasi Eksternal Jurnal Buana Informatika Pixel : Jurnal Ilmiah Komputer Grafis JUITA : Jurnal Informatika Proceeding SENDI_U Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) JURNAL ILMIAH INFORMATIKA JURNAL TEKNIK INFORMATIKA DAN SISTEM INFORMASI Jurnal Teknik Informatika UNIKA Santo Thomas INTECOMS: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science Building of Informatics, Technology and Science Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Terapan (J-TIT) Jurnal Manajemen Informatika dan Sistem Informasi Jurnal JTIK (Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi) Jurnal Teknik Elektro dan Komputasi (ELKOM) JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika) Aiti: Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Dinamika Informatika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) Jurnal Teknik Informatika Unika Santo Thomas (JTIUST) Jurnal Teknoif Teknik Informatika Institut Teknologi Padang Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) Maritime Park: Journal Of Maritime Technology and Socienty Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Intimas (Jurnal INTIMAS): Inovasi Teknologi Informasi Dan Komputer Untuk Masyarakat Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Seminar Nasional Teknologi dan Multidisiplin Ilmu Kesatria : Jurnal Penerapan Sistem Informasi (Komputer dan Manajemen) INOVTEK Polbeng - Seri Informatika
Eri Zuliarso
Universitas Stikubank
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Library & Information Science Mechanical Engineering Neuroscience Social Sciences

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Journal : Building of Informatics, Technology and Science

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Perbandingan Kinerja LSTM, Bi-LSTM, dan Prophet untuk Prediksi Kekeringan berdasarkan SPEI (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) Amalina, Hana; Zuliarso, Eri
Building of Informatics, Technology and Science (BITS) Vol 7 No 2 (2025): September 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/bits.v7i2.7971

Abstract

Drought is a natural disaster with widespread impacts on agriculture and water availability, particularly in the Gajah Mungkur Reservoir area of Wonogiri Regency, Indonesia. Rainfall instability driven by global climate change and local climate variability is the primary cause of this disaster. Accurate drought prediction is essential for formulating sustainable mitigation strategies. This study aims to analyze drought characteristics in the Gajah Mungkur Reservoir, Wonogiri Regency, using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and to compare the performance of three prediction models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), and Prophet in predicting SPEI. The dataset includes monthly rainfall and air temperature data from 1995 to 2024. The analysis reveals that longer SPEI time scales tend to show more temporally concentrated drought patterns. At the 6-month SPEI scale, which represents long-term drought, a total of 55 drought months were detected between 1995 and 2024, with major drought episodes occurring in 1996–1997, 2000–2007, 2019, and 2023–2024. Model performance evaluation shows a numerical trend in which Bi-LSTM outperforms others for 1-month SPEI prediction, while LSTM performs better at the 3- and 6-month scales. However, statistical significance testing indicates that the performance differences among the three models are not significant (p > 0,05), suggesting that other factors such as computational efficiency may be important considerations in practical applications.
Co-Authors . Sulastri . Suwarsito Aditya Bobby Rizki Allaam, Ekananda Naufal Amalina, Hana Anefia Mutiara Atha ariadi, hastomo Arief Jananto Ariyani, Dewi Ayu Arya Sena Setyanegara Astuti, Vivi Rizki Indri Bambang Wiranto, Joko Cahyono Purbomartono Dewi Handayani Untari Ningsih Dian Kristiawan Nugroho Dwi Agus Diartono Dwi Budi Santoso Edy Winarno Fathoni, Aliffatul Majid Februarianti, Herny Fidiniari, Fathia Gunadi, Ilham Hastomo Ariadi Herny Februariyanti Herny Februariyanti Hersatoto Listiyono Hindayati Mustafidah Indah Widhi Prastika Indriani, Cheryllista Isworo Nugroho Khabib Mustofa Kogoya, Erminus Kusuma Satria, Hafiyan Nafan Mardi Siswo Utomo Munna, Aliyatul Nur Rohim Nurmakhlufi, Alfin Hilmy Putra Alva, Ilyasa Garuda Putri, Indah Lissiana R. Soelistijadi Radyanto, Mohammad Riza Rara Sri Artati Redjeki Ratmoko, Hari Rezal Arminto, Edo Rina Candra NS Rizky Abdul Malik Rosyida, Elviana Ruslana, Zauyik Nana S Sunardi Safra, Icha Adellia Safra, Kyla Kaneshia Sariyun Naja Anwar Sri Eniyati Sri Hartati Sudiantoro, Adhi Viky Sugiyamto Sugiyamto, Sugiyamto Sulastri Sulastri Sulastri Sulastri Sulatri sulis, Sulistiyowati Sunardi Sunardi Velamentosa, Desvio Wahyu Prasetyo Wibowo, Sayogo Wismarini, Th Dwiati Yassin Achmad Nur Aziz Yohanes Suhari Yunus Anis Yunus Anis, Yunus Yuwan, Ridho Pangestu Zulfa Febriana Dewi Mellinia