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All Journal Science and Technology Indonesia BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Journal of Applied Data Sciences Jurnal Ilmiah Kampus Mengajar Jurnal Keilmuan dan Keislaman UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
YAN ADITYA PRADANA
Fakultas Ilmu Formal Dan Ilmu Terapan, Universitas Muhammadiyah Madiun
Religion Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation

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Forecast Accuracy Comparison Between Holt’s Method and the Box-Jenkins Approach: The Case of Madiun City Labor Force Participation Rate Shobri, Muhammad Qolbi; Yan Aditya Pradana; Putri Balqis Al-Kubro; Nayla Desviona; Nila Destia Nasra
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/413

Abstract

Pacitan district recorded the highest Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in Eastern Java Province. Meanwhile, Madiun city which is one of the largest cities in East Java Province, is ranked only 34 out of 39 cities in 2023. This condition raises concern for the local government, perticularly the Department of Manpower,in ensuring that the productive-age population can be optimally absorbed into the labor market. The LFPR is categorized as time series data, thus forecasting method are required to estimate its future trends.This Study compares the performance of the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt (DESH) method and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins approach in forecasting the LFPR of Madiun City. The empirical result show that the ARIMA (1,0,1) model provides better accuracy compared to DESH. The forecasting result  indiacte that the LFPR of Madiun City is project to reach 67,19% in 2024, 67,20% in 2025, and 67,21% in 2026, with  Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 14,48; Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3,80 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4,75%. These finding are expected to serve as reference for future research and practical input for policymakers in formulating strategies to improve labor LFPR in Madiun City.
Co-Authors AA Sudharmawan, AA Aji, Alfian Chrisna Aji, Angelia Sukma Ningrum Afrida Yono Putri Andiyani, Rhavida Anniza Azka, Dea Alvionita Daniel Happy Putra Dian Artha Kusumaningtyas Efri Roziaty Efri Roziaty Erma Widyastuti Fadilatin, Nuha Syaj’in Flora Ramona Sigit Prakoeswa Ida Untari Ihwan Susila Imam Mukhlash Irfan Miftahul Fauzi Isnaeni Umi Machromah Iswari, Dian Ardhifa Kurniaji, Ganno Tri Buana Lenny Puspita Dewi MOH. MUDZAKKIR Mohammad Isa Irawan Muhammad Qolbi Shobri Muhammad Syahriandi Adhantoro Mujiono, Edo Priyo Utomo Putro Muthiah, Suci Muzakar Isa Naufal Ishartono Nayla Desviona Nila Destia Nasra Nova Tri Romadloni Nuha Syaj’in Fadilatin Pramudito, Wysnu Putri Balqis Al-Kubro Putri, Angelia Sukma Ningrum Afrida Yono Putri, Endah R.M. Putri, Endah Rokhmati Merdika Rahmah, Maulida Atsaniatu Santosa Pradana Putra Setya Negara Setyawati, Yayuk Trisakti Handayani Wijanarko, Ardi