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Journal : International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Rainfall Forecasting Soebroto, Arief Andy; Limantara, Lily Montarcih; Mahmudy, Wayan Firdaus; Sholichin, Moh.; Hidayat, Nurul; Kharisma, Agi Putra
International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology Vol 5, No 4 (2025)
Publisher : Malikussaleh University, Aceh, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52088/ijesty.v5i4.1179

Abstract

Climate change is a significant challenge for both humans and the environment, with its impacts increasingly felt across various regions of the world. The most evident consequence is the alteration of extreme weather patterns, which often lead to destructive and life-threatening natural disasters. Among these, extreme rainfall was the most damaging factor, frequently triggering floods. However, the increasing occurrence of related events outlined the urgent need for developing more accurate rainfall forecasting systems as a strategic measure for disaster risk reduction. This research adopted daily rainfall data from Samarinda City, collected between 2004 and 2012, to conduct prediction using both machine and deep learning methods. The implementation of machine learning methods, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), enabled the model to learn from historical data and uncover complex patterns, resulting in accurate forecasts and improved adaptability to climate variability. Meanwhile, deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), enhanced prediction performance by capturing more intricate and abstract data relationships. Performance evaluations conducted using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) showed that deep learning outperformed machine learning in accuracy. The LSTM model achieved the best performance, with loss values of 0.0482 and 0.0527 for MSE and MAE, respectively. The advantage of deep learning lies in its ability to build more complex models for handling non-linear problems and to learn data representations at various levels of abstraction, which has led to more accurate results. Furthermore, LSTM surpassed RNN by effectively overcoming the vanishing gradient issue, allowing for more stable and efficient training that led to superior predictive performance.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Achmad Hariyadi Adiputra, Dhimas Satibi Agi Putra Kharisma, Agi Putra Agung Rahmadi Agus Priombodo Agustina Pagatiku Alamsyah, Muhammad Bayu Ambarwati, Arum Nurwidya Aniek Masrevaniah Arfiyanti, Anandini Fatma Arief Andy Soebroto Arif Rahmad Darmawan Ariston Samosir Azhari, Zeinnia Alya Azwar Annas Kunaifi Chandrasasi, Dian Damayanti, Alvine Cinta Dian Chandrasasi Dian Sisinggih Diando, Azamulail Djunaedi Djunaedi Donny Harisuseno Dwi Priyantoro Edison Hukom Eka Agus Subiyantoro Emma Yuliani Endang Purwati RN Ery Suhartanto Ery Suhartanto Ery Suhartanto Fandianto, Erno Fathia, Ayasha Fauziyah, Fauziyah Februanto, Aaron Jeremy Ferina, Marisa Ayu Hana Arum Rossy Tamaya Haris Djafar, Haris Harisuseno, Donny Harri Pranowo Ikrar Hanggara, Ikrar Ilham, Rendy Khoirul Indra Kusuma Sari Islamiyanto, Yudho Putra itojo Tri Juwono Iwan Nursyriwan Jadfan Sidqi Fidari Jamhari Jamhari Juma'a, Muhammad Walidi Juni, Riska Wulan Kharistanto, Robertus Tegar Kurnia Lalu Sigar Canggih Ranesa, Lalu Sigar Canggih Lenny Febriana Ideawati, Lenny Febriana Linda Prasetyorini Lucky Dyah Ekorini M. Bisri Mahendra, Hardiman Maulida Hayati Megantara, Anggit Gilang Mochammad Ibrahim Moh. Sholichin Moh. Sholichin Mohammad Bisri Mokhamad Rusdha Maulana Muhamad Rodhita Muhammad Bisri Muhammad Ilham nalurita, sari Nuf'a, Hilma Nugrahanto, Bagus Aji Nurdiyanto Nurdiyanto, Nurdiyanto nurfitriani, Alvina nurfitriani, Alvina Nurul Hidayat Pitojo Tri Juwono Pramasela, Pramasela Putra, Whima Regianto Qomarul Huda, Qomarul Rachma, Siti Talitha Rahmah Dara Lufira Ramadian, Bagas ramdhani, fitroh Respatiningrum, Amalia Wara Rini Wahyu Sayekti Rini, Firda Agustiya Rispiningtati Rispiningtati Riwin Andono Riyanto Haribowo Rony Rudson Rossy Tamaya, Hana Arum Runi Asmaranto Safira Anisah Haromain Safira Anisah Haromain Salimah, Ghaida Nurul Salsabila, Nadia Semuel J. Ch. Ahab, Semuel J. Ch. Shihab, Muhammad Qurais Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuni Suhardjono Suhardjono Sulianto Sulianto Suwanto Marsudi Tae Lake, Geovani Valerian Maria Tri Budi Prayogo Tri Budi Prayogo, Tri Budi Triwidianto, Heru Tyas Daru, Tyas Ussy Andawayanti Very Dermawan Wahyuni, Sri Wahyuni, Sri Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy Whima Regianto Putra Widandi Soetopo Yanuar Wicaksono, R. Fajar Yudha Mediawan Yumna Atika