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All Journal SOCA: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian CEMARA AGRISE Habitat Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (Indonesian Journal of Community Engagement) Mimbar Agribisnis: Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) CARADDE: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat PengabdianMu: Jurnal Ilmiah Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Agriecobis : Journal of Agricultural Socioeconomics and Business Jurnal Dinamika Sosial Ekonomi Jurnal Pengabdian dan Peningkatan Mutu Masyarakat (JANAYU) Jurnal Pepadu paradigma agribisnis Jurnal Agribest paradigma agribisnis
Nur Ocvanny Amir
Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Pemilihan Model Peramalan Volume Pengiriman Ekspor Ubi Cilembu Ke Singapura: Studi Kasus PT. XYZ Monica Sarwono; Nur Ocvanny Amir
Mimbar Agribisnis : Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis Vol 12, No 2 (2026): Juli 2026
Publisher : Universitas Galuh

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25157/ma.v12i2.22988

Abstract

Cilembu sweet potato exports have strong potential in international markets; however, this opportunity may lead to problems if it is not accompanied by the company’s readiness to plan shipment volumes accurately. Therefore, forecasting is needed to help the company develop more measurable estimates of shipment volumes in line with demand dynamics. This study aims to This study aims to (1) identify and analyze the historical pattern of PT XYZ’s cilembu sweet potato export shipment volumes to Singapore; (2) analyze shipment-volume cilembu sweet potato forecasting using the Moving Average (MA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), and Exponential Smoothing (ES) methods; and (3) select the best model to support shipment-volume planning for Cilembu sweet potatoes. This study uses secondary data on shipment volumes and applies simple time-series forecasting methods, namely MA, WMA, and ES. Forecasting analysis is conducted by determining parameters through testing several alternatives and then evaluating accuracy using MAD, MSE, and MAPE. The results show that (1) the historical shipment-volume pattern tends to fluctuate and is influenced more by short-term changes than by a strong trend; (2) the selected parameters are MA(3), WMA (1–2–3), and ES with α = 0.3 because they produce the smallest error values and provide the best accuracy for forecasting the next-period shipment volume of Cilembu sweet potatoes; and (3) Exponential Smoothing (ES) is identified as the best method, yielding a forecast of 564.103 kg as the shipment volume for the next period.
Co-Authors Afif Muhammad Heidar Amanda, Boyke Putra Aminah Roisatul Kubro Anas Tain Anis Zubaidah Ary Bakhtiar Asror, Zubdatul Dewi Mustikawati, Dewi Dio Bagus Setiawan Djoko Koestiono Dwi Suprapti, Putri Sabrina Erfan Dani Septia Erlin Widya Fatmawati Ernawati Ernawati Fardha Noor Laiyinah Firsandy, Robby Aulia Fithri Fithri Mufriantie Ganjar Adhywirawan Sutarjo Gumoyo Mumpuni Gumoyo Mumpuni Ningsih Harpowo Ibrahim MS, Jabal Tarik Jabal Tarik Ibrahim Khairunnisa Khairunnisa Kubro, Aminah Roisatul Livia Windiana Mamlu Atul Hasanah Monica Sarwono Prayoga, Rico Dayu Dwi Purwaningrum, Novita Putri Sabrina Dwi Suprapti Putri, Indah Septi Yunita Rahayu Relawati Rahmad Pulung Sudibyo Rahmad Pulung Sudibyo Rahmad Pulung Sudibyo Rahmad Pulung Sudibyo Rahmad Pulung Sudibyo, Rahmad Pulung Ridho Firmandhaka Riska Putri Wahyuni Syafrial Syafrial Vifi Nurul Choirina Yohana Agustina Zubdatul Asror