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All Journal Jurnal Matematika Media Statistika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Beta: Jurnal Tadris Matematika Jurnal Pengabdian Magister Pendidikan IPA Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL Jurnal Matematika UNAND Jurnal Gema Ngabdi Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Varian Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Sains Indonesia (Indonesian Journal Of Science Community Services) Prosiding Konferensi Nasional PKM-CSR Jurnal Karya Pengabdian Teknik Mesin Jurnal Pepadu International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics-IJCSAM
Mustika Hadijati
Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Library & Information Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Nursing Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Forecasting the Amount of Water Discharge Based on the VARIMA Model Meliyana, Hesti; Hadijati, Mustika; Harsyiah, Lisa
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.3278

Abstract

Water is an absolutely necessary substance for every living thing. Clean water is the main requirement for ensuring human health and the environment PT. Air Minum Giri Menang (Perseroda). The purpose of this study is to determine the model and then predict the water discharge of PT. Air Minum Giri Menang using the obtained model which will be useful for the community and agencies so that the management, distribution, and use of clean water are more optimal. The method used in this study is VARIMA (Vector Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average) which can process data for more than one variable. The data used in this study is water discharge data produced and distributed in the period January 2018 to December 2021. The results show that the best model obtained is VARIMA(0,1,1) with model accuracy for water discharge data that produced and distributed based on the MAPE value of 4% and 5% which states that the forecasting results can be categorized as very good. This means that the VARIMA (0,1,1) model has provided very accurate results in predicting water discharge with very small forecasting errors, thus indicating that the model is very effective. Suggestions for further research are look for the alternative forecasting method that are overcome non-stationarity data other than data transformation.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX MODELING USING A MIXED TRUNCATED SPLINE AND KERNEL SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION APPROACH Hidayati, Lilik; Hadijati, Mustika; Purnamasari, Nur Asmita; Ristiandi, Ristiandi; Kartini, Ni Nyoman Dewi
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp581-594

Abstract

Some semiparametric regression model approaches include spline, kernel, Fourier series, and wavelet. Semiparametric regression modelling can involve more than one independent variable (multivariable), a parametric approach is usually combined with one of the nonparametric approaches, such as combining a parametric approach with a nonparametric kernel. If a consumer price index model can be built based on the variables that influence it, predictions of consumer price percentages can be made, which it is hoped will help the government determine policies to control consumer price inflation, especially in NTB Province. The data used in this research includes the consumer price index and the factors that influence it according to districts/cities in NTB Province from 2022 to April 2024. The data source was obtained from secondary data at BPS NTB Province. This research design uses a mixed semiparametric approach of truncated spline and kernel regression. Based on calculations, the predicted results of the consumer price index in NTB Province show that the predicted data graph is very close to the actual data . Modelling the consumer price index in NTB Province is a model with 2 knot points, where the model efficiency has the smallest GCV value of 0.001507. The model goodness value is 0.99, meaning that the variables used can explain 99% of the model variability.
Penguatan Data Kepariwisataan di Desa Lembar Selatan untuk Mengungkap Potensi Desa menuju Dewi Cantik: Penguatan Data Kepariwisataan di Desa Lembar Selatan untuk Mengungkap Potensi Desa menuju Dewi Cantik Hidayati, Lilik; Mustika Hadijati; Desy Komalasari; Nur Asmita Purnamasari; Adis Tia Juli Agil Asri; Kamal Faisal Hikam
Jurnal Pengabdian Magister Pendidikan IPA Vol 8 No 3 (2025): Juli-September 2025
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jpmpi.v8i3.12876

Abstract

South Lembar Village has very promising tourism potential, both in terms of natural beauty, cultural richness, and unique ecotourism such as Cemare Beach, the Sacred Tomb, and the Mangrove Forest area. However, the utilization of this potential has not been optimal due to low awareness among the community and village officials regarding the importance of data in tourism management and development. Additionally, limited technical capabilities in data collection and analysis also pose an obstacle to creating effective and sustainable tourism promotion and development strategies. Based on this urgency, this service activity aims to increase community and village government awareness and capacity in building a simple, participatory, and sustainable tourism data collection system, thru the DEWI CANTIK or Desa Wisata Cinta Data Statistik concept approach. The methods used include socializing the importance of data, providing technical training for village officials and tourism awareness groups, assisting with the use of simple software for data management, forming village data working groups, and developing standard operating procedures for tourism data management. All stages are carried out collaboratively and adapted to local conditions. The targeted outcomes of this activity include increased data literacy among the community, the formation of a Village Data Working Group as tourism information managers, the development of standard operating procedures for the village tourism data collection system, and the availability of data that can be used for more targeted and evidence-based tourism planning and promotion. With this program, it is hoped that Lembar Selatan Village can become a model for independent, innovative, and sustainable data-based tourism villages.
Pelatihan Pembuatan Media Pembelajaran Matematika Interaktif Berbasis Microsoft Powerpoint di MA Attamimy Lombok Tengah Fitriyani, Nurul; Hadijati, Mustika; Harsyiah, Lisa; Baskara, Zulhan Widya
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Sains Indonesia (Indonesian Journal Of Science Community Services) Vol. 3 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jpmsi.v3i2.147

Abstract

Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Attamimy adalah yang berada di bawah naungan Yayasan Pondok Pesantren Attamimy. MA Attamimy ini memiliki visi dan misi untuk melahirkan manusia-manusia yang berimtaq, berakhlak mulia, serta mampu bersaing menghadapi tantangan zaman global. Pada dasarnya, MA Attamimy ini telah memilki fasilitas komputer beserta akses internet yang cukup memadai, namun penggunaannya belum digunakan secara maksimal. Masalah lain yang juga terjadi adalah munculnya istilah mathematics phobia di kalangan siswa di MA Attamimy. Beberapa kesan negatif mengenai ilmu sains dan matematika ini mengharuskan penyampaian materi dan proses pembelajaran di kelas harus dikemas semenarik mungkin. Tujuan dilakukannya kegiatan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat ini adalah dalam rangka pemanfaatan internet dan Microsoft PowerPoint dalam membuat media pembelajaran yang interaktif. Berdasarkan kegiatan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat yang dilakukan di MA Attamimy, perlu untuk dilakukan kegiatan lanjutan sebagai bentuk kesinambungan kegiatan. Microsoft PowerPoint sendiri telah dimanfaatkan dalam membuat media pembelajaran interaktif oleh peserta kegiatan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat, hanya saja perlu ditingkatkan pemanfaatan fitur-fitur, salah satunya fitur hyperlink, sehingga dapat meningkatkan kualitas pembelajaran.
Estimasi Parameter Model Moving Average Orde 1 Menggunakan Metode Momen dan Maximum Likelihood Nirwana, Nirwana; Hadijati, Mustika; Fitriyani, Nurul
Eigen Mathematics Journal Vol 1 No 1: Vol 1 No 1 Juni 2018
Publisher : University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (352.181 KB) | DOI: 10.29303/emj.v1i1.8

Abstract

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average is a model that commonly used to model time series data. One model that can be modeled is Moving Average (MA). In this study, the estimation of parameters was performed to produce the model estimator parameter, where if the order component of the MA model is known, then the methods that can be used are the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method, Moment method, and Maximum Likelihood method. But in fact, there are often assumption deviations when using the OLS method, one of which occurs heteroscedasticity (variant is not constant) which is produce a poor estimator. This study used both Moment and Maximum Likelihood method in estimating the parameter of the 1st Moving Average model, denoted by MA (1). The result showed that MA (1) parameter model using Moment method gave better result than Maximum Likelihood method. This can be seen from the value of Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) of both Moment and Maximum Likelihood method parameter estimator with magnified amount of data and various parameters values generated.
Hybrid ARIMA Modeling with Stochastic Volatility for Forecasting the Value of Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia Evatia Suryatin; Mustika Hadijati; Zulhan Widya Baskara
(IJCSAM) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics Vol. 10 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Export activities consist of oil and gas exports and non-oil and gas exports. Non-oil and gas exports are one of the sectors that provide the largest foreign exchange contribution to Indonesia, and the movement of non-oil and gas export values has an impact on economic growth. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to create a model used to predict future non-oil and gas export values. One mathematical model that can be to predict Indonesia’s non-oil and gas export values is the combination of the ARIMA model and the stochastic volatility model, also known as Hybrid ARIMA with stochastic volatility. The Hybrid ARIMA with stochastic volatility modeling has advantages in creating models for data with high volatility and is capable of combining linear patterned data and nonlinear patterned data. In this study, the best ARIMA (1,1,1) model was obtained with a MAPE value of 13.2082%. From the residuals of the ARIMA (1,1,1) model, there were signs of heteroscedasticity, so the GARCH model with the best GARCH (0,1) model was used. In the GARCH (0,1) model, it was found that there was an asymmetric influence, so the EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models were used. The comparison of EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models was carried out to address the asymmetric residual data pattern. Based on the research results, the best model used for prediction is the hybrid ARIMA (1,1,1) with EGARCH (1,1) model, with a MAPE value of 9.35158%.
Metaheuristic Search in Mixed Kernel and Spline Truncated Non-parametric Regression Hadijati, Mustika; Irwansyah, Irwansyah; Fitriyani, Nurul; Sauri, Muhammad Sopian
(IJCSAM) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics Vol. 11 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.ijcsam.v11i2.8841

Abstract

Non-parametric regressions are widely used in data analysis because of their flexibility. Apart from their applicability, it is not easy to find the optimal parameters of the corresponding non-parametric models. This situation is caused by the nonexistence of a closed formula of the optimal parameters. In this paper, we propose a metaheuristic approach for optimal parameter search in mixed kernel and truncated spline and kernel regression. Moreover, we provide examples on how to implement the proposed algorithm to both real and simulated datasets. The results indicate that the algorithm yields highly accurate predictions for mixed truncated spline and kernel regression models.
Co-Authors Adis Tia Juli Agil Asri Aditya Setyawan R Agus Kurnia Attina Ulansari Baskara, Zulhan Bidayani Bidayani Dara Puspita Anggraeni Desy Komalasari Desy Komalasari Dina Eka Putri Evatia Suryatin Fara Fid Graha, Syifa Salsabila Satya Hafizah Ilma Hairunnisa Hairunnisa Harsyiah, Lisa Helmina Andriani Irwansyah - Irwansyah Irwansyah Irwansyah Irwansyah Irwansyah Irwansyah Jihan Melani Jurnal Pepadu Jusmawati Jusmawati Kamal Faisal Hikam Kartini, Ni Nyoman Dewi Lilik Hidayati, Lilik Luh Putu Ratna Sundari M. Naoval Husni M. Syahrul Mamika Ujianita Romdhini Marwan Marwan Meliyana, Hesti Muhammad Sopian Sauri Ni Wayan Switrayni Nirwana, Nirwana Nur Asmita Purnamasari Nurasiah Amini Nurul - Insan Nurul Fitriyani Nurul Fitriyani PURNAMASARI, NUR ASMITA Qomaria Sinta Sari Qudsi, Jihadil Qurratul Aini Rifdah Fadhilah Ristiandi, Ristiandi Saputra, Dede Sauri, Muhammad Sopian Sri Wati Agustini Ulfa Destiarina Usman, Siti Dwi Khairun Rahmatin Widiya Tri Astuti Wirajaya Kusuma Yuliana Lestari Zulhan Widya Baskara