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The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on External Debt in G7 Countries Sakti, Ayung Bintari; Suseno, Deky Aji
Journal of Research in Social Science and Humanities Vol 5, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Utan Kayu Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47679/jrssh.v5i2.368

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to use panel data regression analysis and path analysis with the Sobel test mode to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on foreign debt in G7 nations for the 2019–2023 timeframe.  The findings of the research indicate that while interest rates and the money supply have a negative impact on saves, taxes and GDP have a favorable impact.  Foreign debt is negatively impacted by the variables of taxes, money supply, interest rates, and savings.  Meanwhile, foreign debt is positively impacted by GDP.  In addition, interest rates and money supply have a positive impact on foreign debt through savings, whereas GDP and taxes have a negative impact.
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TINDAK KRIMINALITAS DAN PDRB DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN PENDEKATAN SEM-PLS Habibah, Yuliana Ainur; Suseno, Deky Aji
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo Vol 11, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbitan dan Publikasi Ilmiah (LPPI) Universitas Muhammadiyah Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35906/jep.v11i1.2443

Abstract

ABSTRAKFenomena meningkatnya kriminalitas di tengah pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi perhatian serius dalam pembangunan daerah, khususnya di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Pertumbuhan PDRB yang meningkat setiap tahun belum sepenuhnya mencerminkan tercapainya kesejahteraan sosial masyarakat, terbukti dari tingginya angka kriminalitas di wilayah tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh tingkat kemiskinan, pendidikan, kepadatan penduduk, dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap tindak kriminalitas dan (PDRB) Produk Domestik Regional Bruto per kapita. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode Structural Equation Modeling – Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) terhadap data sekunder dari 29 kabupaten dan sembilan kota di Jawa Timur selama tahun 2017–2023. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa variabel tingkat kemiskinan memiliki dampak positif dan berpengaruh terhadap kriminalitas, tingkat kemiskinan memiliki dampak negatif terhadap PDRB per kapita, variabel tingkat pendidikan berpengaruh positif terhadap tindak kriminalitas dan PDRB per kapita, variabel kepadatan penduduk memiliki dampak positif terhadap tindak kriminalitas dan PDRB per kapita, tingkat pengangguran memiliki dampak negatif terhadap tindak kriminalitas namun memiliki dampak positif terhadap PDRB per kapita. PDRB per kapita juga berpengaruh terhadap tindak kriminalitas. Hasil ini mengindikasikan perlunya kebijakan pembangunan ekonomi yang tidak hanya berfokus pada angka makroekonomi, tetapi juga mencermati distribusi sosial dan pemerataan manfaat pertumbuhan. ABSTRACTThe phenomenon of rising crime rates amid economic growth has become a serious concern in regional development, particularly in East Java Province. Although the (GRDP) Gross Regional Domestic Product has increased annually, this growth does not fully reflect the achievement of social welfare among the community, as evidenced by the high crime rates in the region. This study aims to analyze the influence of poverty level, education, population density, and unemployment rate on criminal activity and (GRDP) per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product. The research employs a quantitative approach using Structural Equation Modeling – Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) on secondary data from 29 regencies and nine cities in East Java during 2017–2023. The analysis results show that the poverty level variable has a positive impact on crime, while poverty negatively affects per capita GRDP. The education level variable positively influences both criminal activity and per capita GRDP. Population density has a positive effect on both crime and per capita GRDP, while unemployment rate has a negative impact on crime but a positive effect on per capita GRDP. Additionally, per capita GRDP influences criminal activity. These findings indicate the need for economic development policies that do not focus solely on macroeconomic figures but also pay attention to social distribution and equitable benefits of growth
Estimating the Impact of Cash Transfer on Spending Behaviour: Utilizing IFLS Bintang Satrio Wibowo; Ahmad Syahrul Fauzi; Deky Aji Suseno; Shanty Oktavilia
EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi Vol. 4 No. 5: Juli 2025
Publisher : CV. Ulil Albab Corp

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56799/ekoma.v4i5.9365

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Government cash transfer programs aim to assist individuals or households in escaping poverty. However, concerns have arisen regarding the misuse of such assistance for tertiary expenditures, such as tobacco and alcohol. This study aims to evaluate the impact of government assistance on household consumption patterns in Indonesia. Utilizing data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we apply Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Instrumental Variable Regression approaches to analyze this impact. The results indicate that an increase in cash transfer amounts contributes to an overall increase in household expenditures, including tertiary consumption. A significant positive relationship between cash transfers and tertiary consumption expenditures suggests the potential for moral hazard issues among certain households in Indonesia
Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah terhadap Investasi dan PDRB di Indonesia Firdaus, Mayisa Azahra; Suseno, Deky Aji
EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi Vol. 4 No. 4: Mei 2025
Publisher : CV. Ulil Albab Corp

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56799/ekoma.v4i4.9537

Abstract

Pembangunan ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2018-2023 menghadapi tantangan di aspek keuangan pemerintah, investasi, sosial ekonomi, ketimpangan ekonomi wilayah. Ketimpangan PDRB antara wilayah barat dan timur, efektivitas pengeluaran pemerintah, keterbatasan infrastruktur di daerah terpencil, serta ketergantungan pada investasi menjadi isu utama. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu untuk menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah, PMA, PMDN terhadap PDRB, pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap PMA dan PMDN, pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap PDRB melalui PMA, pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap PDRB melalui PMDN. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik dari tahun 2018-2023 dan menggunakan alat analisis Structural Equation Modelling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS). Hasil penelitian ini adalah pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB, pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PMA, pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PMDN, PMA berpengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap PDRB, PMDN berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB, PMA tidak memediasi antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan PDRB, PMDN memediasi antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan PDRB. Hasil ini menekankan pentingnya optimalisasi pengeluaran pemerintah dan penguatan investasi domestik sebagai strategi untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan dan adil.
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS OF MSME CREDIT GROWTH IN INDONESIA : A MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH Nailir Rohmah; Deky Aji Suseno
Jurnal REP (Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan) Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025): April 2025
Publisher : Universitas Tidar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31002/rep.v10i1.2585

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MSME Credit Growth in Indonesia experienced a downward and upward trend during the period 2017 - 2024. This study aims to determine the effect of internal factors Non Performing Loan (NPL), Return on Asset (ROA), and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) as well as external factors BI Rate, Inflation, and Exchange Rate on MSME credit growth in Indonesia. This study uses the Markov Switching approach to capture changes in the dynamics of MSME credit growth in various credit growth conditions. The results of this study indicate that in high credit growth conditions, MSME credit is positively influenced by BI Rate, Exchange Rate, and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and is negatively influenced by Inflation, Non Performing Loan (NPL), and Return on Asset (ROA) to MSME credit growth in Indonesia. However, in conditions of declining credit growth, MSME credit is only positively influenced by inflation and ROA to MSME credit growth in Indonesia. This study illustrates that the factors that influence MSME credit growth in various conditions are different. These findings can be used as a basis in formulating policies in various conditions of credit growth.
Peran BUMDes terhadap Kesejahteraan Masyarakat (Studi Kasus BUMDes Sari Mulyo Desa Karangsari Kecamatan Brati Kabupaten Grobongan) Shafila, Desma; Suseno, Deky Aji
WELFARE Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 5, No 2 (2024): November
Publisher : Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan, Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Siliwangi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37058/wlfr.v5i2.13041

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This research aims to analyze the role of BUMDes in improving the welfare of the people of Karangsari Village. This research uses a qualitative analysis method with the help of the Nvivo 12 analysis tool to analyze the role of BUMDes according to the business units they run, namely pumping, village markets and geopark tourism. The data collection method is by interviewing Village officials, BUMDes administrators and the Karangsari Village community. The results of this research show that the role of BUMDes in improving community welfare is seen from the contribution to PADes each year that has played a role in the community through the business units they run. Judging from the role in creating jobs, each BUMDes business unit has played a role in absorbing the workforce. Then, in increasing community income, BUMDes also play a role by increasing rice production through pumping business units and revitalizing MSMEs through village market business units and also geopark tourism. The social benefits of the existence of this BUMDes can also be felt by the people of Karangsari Village.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran BUMDes dalam peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat Desa Karangsari. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis kualitatif dengan bantuan alat analisis Nvivo 12 menganalisis peran BUMDes sesuai dengan unit usaha yang dijalankan yaitu pompanisasi, pasar desa, dan wisata geopark. Metode pengumpulan data yaitu dengan wawancara kepada perangkat Desa, pengurus BUMDes serta masyarakat Desa Karangsari. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa peran BUMDes terhadap peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat dilihat dari kontribusi terhadap PADes setiap tahunnya telah berperan kepada masyarakat melalui unit usaha yang dijalankan. Ditinjau dari peran dalam menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan sudah berperan dalam setiap unit usaha BUMDes telah menyerap tenaga kerja. Kemudian dalam peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat BUMDes juga berperan melalui peningkatan produksi padi melalui unit usaha pompanisasi serta menghidupkan UMKM melalui unit usaha pasar desa dan juga wisata geopark. Manfaat Sosial dari adanya BUMDes ini juga dapat dirasakan oleh masyarakat Desa Karangsari.
Dampak Kebijakan Moneter AS terhadap Investasi dan Perekonomian Daerah di Pulau Jawa: Pendekatan Seemingly Unrelated Regression Pramudita, Alfina; Deky Aji Suseno
Paradoks : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025): May - July
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Muslim Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57178/paradoks.v8i3.1384

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Mundell-Fleming mempunyai asumsi mobilitas modal sempurna. Negara Indonesia merupakan wilayah heterogen yang menyebabkan mobilitas modalnya tidak sempurna, sehingga melalui suku bunga AS terhadap perekonomian daerah, maka tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh suku bunga Amerika Serikat yang direpresentasikan dengan Fed Funds Rate (FFR) terhadap perekonomian daerah di Pulau Jawa. Data pada penelitian ini merupakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Kementerian Investasi/BKPM, BPS, dan World Bank. Data yang diambil merupakan data provinsi di Pulau Jawa dan suku bunga amerika The Fed dari tahun 2015 hingga 2023 secara triwulan sehingga menghasilkan sampel 216 data pada tiap variabel. Pengujian data dilakukan menggunakan metode Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) yang diolah menggunakan Stata17. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada model pertama, Fed Funds Rate dan Penanaman Modal Asing di Pulau Jawa berpengaruh terhadap PDRB di Pulau Jawa. Pada model kedua, Fed Funds Rate dan Inflasi berpengaruh terhadap Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) di Pulau Jawa. Pada model ketiga, Fed Funds Rate berpengaruh terhadap Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) di Pulau Jawa.
ANALISIS PENGARUH PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH TERHADAP STUNTING Destianti, Anisha; Aji Suseno, Deky
SIBATIK JOURNAL: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Sosial, Ekonomi, Budaya, Teknologi, Dan Pendidikan Vol. 4 No. 6 (2025)
Publisher : Penerbit Lafadz Jaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/sibatik.v4i6.2794

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Reducing stunting rates is one of the national development priorities outlined in the 2020–2024 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) as part of efforts to develop high-quality human resources. This study aims to analyze the effect of government spending on stunting prevalence across 34 provinces in Indonesia during the 2021–2023 period. The independent variables analyzed include the Physical Special Allocation Fund for Stunting (DAK Fisik Stunting), the Non-Physical Special Allocation Fund for Stunting (DAK Non Fisik Stunting), and Village Funds. The intervening variables consist of access to proper sanitation and access to basic health facilities (AFKD), while the dependent variable is stunting prevalence. The method used is Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), with the aid of the WarpPLS 8.0 software. The results show that the Physical DAK for Stunting has a significant negative effect on sanitation (β = -0.46; p < 0.01) and indirectly reduces stunting prevalence. The Non-Physical DAK has a positive effect on sanitation (β = 0.17; p < 0.04) and a direct negative effect on stunting (β = -0.31; p < 0.01). Village Funds significantly affect AFKD (β = -0.53; p < 0.01), which in turn has a significant impact on reducing stunting (β = -0.21; p < 0.02). This model is able to explain 69% of the variation in stunting prevalence (R² = 0.69). These findings provide important implications for results-based budgeting policies aimed at accelerating stunting reduction efforts.
Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia: Penerapan Model SEM-PLS Dian Nur Kholis; Deky Aji Suseno
El-Mal: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi & Bisnis Islam Vol. 6 No. 6 (2025): El-Mal: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi & Bisnis Islam
Publisher : Intitut Agama Islam Nasional Laa Roiba Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47467/elmal.v6i6.7956

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Palm oil is one of Indonesia's leading export commodities (GPKI, 2023). The superiority of palm oil commodities is the basis of the research, supported by the Heckser-Ohlin theory of comparative advantage of commodities. This study aims to structurally analyze the influence of world average GDP, exchange rates, production and inflation on Indonesian palm oil exports. Data testing uses the SEM-PLS (Structural Equation Modeling - Partial Least Square) method using WarpPLS 8.0. The data in this study uses secondary data obtained from world average GDP data, exchange rates, production and inflation sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the Worldbank in the form of monthly data for 2018-2023. The results of the study show that world average GDP, production and inflation have a positive effect while the exchange rate has a negative effect on Indonesian palm oil exports. Furthermore, world average GDP and exchange rates have a positive effect while production has a negative effect on Indonesian inflation.
Toward a Digitalized Economy: The Impact of Digital Index Performance on The Economic Growth in Indonesia Rahmayani, Dwi; Abdulah, Rusli; Suseno, Deky Aji
Eko-Regional: Jurnal Pembangunan Ekonomi Wilayah Vol 20 No 1 (2025): March 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32424/er.v20i1.13650

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Nowadays, the world relies heavily on digitalization. This study aims to analyze the effect of digitalization on economic growth in Indonesia. This study used panel data from 32 provinces in Indonesia, ranging from year 2017 to 2023. This study employed fixed and dynamic panel models with economic growth as the dependent variable and stock of capital and labor digitalization as independent variables. Digitalization is proxied by the access and infrastructure sub-index, the usage sub-index, and the skills sub-index. The estimation result shows that variables of stock of capital, labor, and digital economic development in Indonesia positively affect economic growth, and we also find that heterogeneity effects exist between different provinces. However, there is no significant effect on the dynamic panel models on generalized method moment. The results draw three implications: increasing investment in physical capital stock, improving human capital quality, and promoting Information and Communication Technology (ICT) readiness.