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All Journal ILMU USHULUDDIN Empirisma; Jurnal Pemikiran dan Kebudayaan Islam UNIVERSUM Religious: Jurnal Studi Agama-Agama dan Lintas Budaya PRASASTI: Journal of Linguistics NUANSA: Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Sosial dan Keagamaan Islam Jurnal Pertahanan : Media Informasi tentang Kajian dan Strategi Pertahanan yang Mengedepankan Identity, Nasionalism dan Integrity Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi Negara (JUAN) ASKETIK: Jurnal Agama dan Perubahan Sosial Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bumi Raflesia Publica: Jurnal Pemikiran Administrasi Negara Journal Ilmiah Rinjani : Media Informasi Ilmiah Universitas Gunung Rinjani Ushuluna: Jurnal Ilmu Ushuluddin IQ (Ilmu Al-qur'an): Jurnal Pendidikan Islam Jurnal Abdimas Sangkabira Bima Abdi: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Emphaty Cons : Journal of Guidance and Counseling Riset, Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan Perpajakan (REKAN) Jurnal Abdimas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Ushuluddin Jurnal Abdimas Musi Charitas Asketik: Jurnal Agama dan Perubahan Sosial Tadabbur: Jurnal Integrasi Keilmuan Jurnal Aplikasi Perpajakan Social Sciences Insights Journal Al-Karim: International Journal of Quranic and Islamic Studies Darma Diksani: Jurnal Pengabdian Ilmu Pendidikan, Sosial, dan Humaniora Jurnal Abdimas Independen Al-Insaf - Jurnal Ahwal Al Syakhshiyyah Al-HIbru: Jurnal Ilmu Bahasa Arab dan Pembelajarannya
Khaerul Umam, Khaerul
Jurusan Ushuluddin Sekolah Tinggi Agama Islam Negeri (STAIN) Kediri Jl. Sunan Ampel No.07Ngronggo Kota Kediri 64127 Jawa Timur, Indonesia. E-mail: Khaerulumam1704@gmail.com
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National Cyber Defense: Analysis of Incident Severity Factors Using a Decision Tree Fakhreja, Reyhan; Umam, Khaerul; Zahra, Kamila; Nurjiah, Imat Siti
Jurnal Pertahanan: Media Informasi tentang Kajian dan Strategi Pertahanan yang Mengedepankan Identity, Nasionalism dan Integrity Vol 11, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : The Republic of Indonesia Defense University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33172/jp.v11i1.19798

Abstract

Cybersecurity became Indonesia’s national defense priority after the April 2024 ransomware attack on critical infrastructure exposed systemic vulnerabilities. Despite BSSN’s establishment, inter-agency coordination remains fragmented, and response delays persist. This study aims to identify the key determinants of cyber-incident severity and propose data-driven policy recommendations. A descriptive quantitative approach was applied to all 77 incidents recorded by BSSN from January to September 2024 a period chosen because it follows new regulatory measures introduced at the start of 2024 and includes multiple high-profile events. BSSN data were cross-referenced with Kominfo and Id-SIRTII logs (revealing an 8 percent discrepancy) to enhance validity. Preprocessing involved removing non-contributory fields, grouping by attack type, sector, and severity, converting categorical variables (Incident Type, Sector, Origin, Mitigation Measures, Response Time, Status) into factors, and stratified splitting into 80 percent training and 20 percent testing subsets. A decision tree model in RStudio (pruned with cp = 0.05) yielded 93.75 percent accuracy, validated by 10-fold cross-validation (mean accuracy 92.5 percent, SD 2.1 percent). Results show Incident Type as the strongest predictor of severity, followed by Mitigation Measures and Response Time. Attacks responded to within 24 hours seldom exceed medium severity, whereas delays over 48 hours, especially for exploits, Trojans, and malware, almost always result in critical outcomes. Additionally, incidents from the United States and Singapore disproportionately target underdeveloped infrastructure and governance sectors, increasing severity. To bolster Indonesia’s cybersecurity resilience, recommendations include: expanding secure, evenly distributed digital infrastructure; establishing and reinforcing provincial CSIRTs; enforcing uniform audit and certification standards; and integrating digital literacy into education. Ultimately, deepening ASEAN CERT integration through synchronized incident classification and real-time threat attribution will bridge national and regional defense gaps, thereby enhancing cross-border response capabilities
Co-Authors Akram, Akram Al Hamid, Islam Alfian Sayuti Amalia, Nida Afifah Amisa, Elia Andika Noviawan, Lalu Andriansyah, Tommy Animah Animah Ayunin, Prudence Queisha Qurrota Baiq Yuni Wahyuningsih Bustomi, Muhammad Yazid Diana Sulianti K Tobing Fadila, Yendri Iqbal Fakhreja, Reyhan Fathonah, Silvia Ferdaus, Nadia Nuril Feryansyah Feryansyah, Feryansyah Firdausy, Hilmy Ghazali, Abdul Muiz Husna, Fina Fatihatul Indarwati, YM Jayadi, M. Irwan Jayawarsa, A.A. Ketut Khotmi, Herawati Kurniawan Syahputra, M. Maolani, Dedeng Maria, Haniam Maswani Maswani, Maswani Maulana, Agung Maulina, Rina Maysarah, May May Muhamad Azhari Muhammad, Hafizh Yusuf Mujahidi, Khairul Nadjib, Ala'i Nafisah, Aqila Zakiya Navalino, R Djoko Andreas Nila Rahayu Noviawan, Andika Nurjiah, Imat Siti Paradisa Sukma Pratama, Angga Eka Putri, Dina Amalya Rahman, Widi Maulana Rahmaniya, Diana Resty Yusnirmala Dewi Rispawati, Dewi Romadoniah Sakhila, Yana santosa, Sandi Solina, Eva Sri Redjeki Suparlan . Supriyadi, Asep Adang Ubaid Ridlo Wahidah, Andiena Asnal Wahyu, Fitri Pebriani Wahyudin, Muhamad Nur Wardiningsih, Reny Yusnirmala Dewi, Resty Zahra, Kamila Zakiar, Zakiar Zulaihah, Evy