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All Journal Jurnal Tematik Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) PENDIPA Journal of Science Education Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Edunesia : jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan BERNAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR) TOFEDU: The Future of Education Journal Konstanta: Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat SAMBARA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Young Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Komputasi : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika
Gayus Simarmata
Universitas HKBP Nommensen Pematangsiantar
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Application of Markov Chains in Predicting the Unemployment Rate in Pematangsiantar for the Years 2026–2030 Nilam Sari; Gayus Simarmata; Yoel Octobe Purba
Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research Vol. 5 No. 6 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : PT FORMOSA CENDEKIA GLOBAL

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55927/ijar.v5i6.16579

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) is one of the key indicators used to describe the labor market conditions in a region. Fluctuations in the OUR over time indicate that labor market dynamics are uncertain and influenced by various economic factors. This study aims to apply the Markov Chain method to analyze and predict trends in the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) of Pematangsiantar City for the period 2026–2030 based on historical data from 2017–2025. The method used in this study is a discrete-time Markov chain with two states: the “Decrease” state and the “Increase” state. The analysis was conducted by constructing a transition probability matrix, predicting probabilities, determining the steady state, performing retention time analysis and sensitivity analysis, and validating the model using backtesting and the R software package. The results show that the transition probability from the “Decreasing” state to the “Decreasing” state is 0.8, while the probability of transitioning from the “Increasing” state to the “Decreasing” state is 1.00.  The prediction results show that the probability of a “Decline” condition during the 2026–2030 period ranges from 80% to 83.328%. Additionally, the steady-state results indicate a probability of 83.3% for a decline in the unemployment rate and 16.7% for an increase. The sensitivity analysis results show that changes in transition probabilities affect the steady-state results; however, the “Decreasing” condition remains the dominant state. Thus, the Markov chain method can be used to describe the probabilistic trends in the open unemployment rate in Pematangsiantar based on historical data transition patterns.
Model Pembelajaran Berbasis Proyek: Peran Kurikulum Merdeka Dalam Meningkatkan Kreativitas Siswa Sekolah Menengah Kejuruan (SMK) Delta Panjaitan; Indah Sagita Siahaan; Shandy Nainggolan; Sabrina Nainggolan; Sasta Olivia Damanik; Gayus Simarmata
Young Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): Young Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities
Publisher : Yayasan Bayt Shufiya Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.66867/yjssh.v2i1.265

Abstract

Amidst the shifting paradigm of the global industry, creativity has mutated from a mere supplementary skill into a primary modality for Vocational High School (SMK) graduates to navigate the uncertainties of the labor market. However, a sociological gap persists between the idealism of industrial demands and the reality of vocational learning, which is often ensnared in rigid skill mechanization. This study aims to analyze the implementation of the Kurikulum Merdeka (Independent Curriculum) through the Project-Based Learning (PjBL) model as an instrument to reconstruct student creativity. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, this study evaluates the interaction dynamics between curricular autonomy, the teacher's role as a facilitator, and student engagement in contextual projects. The findings indicate that although the Kurikulum Merdeka provides extensive space for flexibility, the enhancement of student creativity does not occur automatically; rather, it relies heavily on the ability of educational actors to engage in "creative negotiation" amidst infrastructural constraints and the barriers of a passive learning culture. Theoretically, this study asserts that creativity in vocational schools is a result of the dialectic between open curriculum design and a learning ecosystem that supports risk-taking. These results contribute to the development of vocational learning models that are not merely oriented toward administrative compliance but toward strengthening the transformative inventive power of graduates.
Pelatihan Penyusunan Bahan Ajar Interaktif Berbasis Multimedia dalam Mendukung Implementasi Kurikulum Merdeka: Pengabdian Eva Pratiwi Pane; Vina Merina Br Sianipar; Rio Parsaoran Napitupulu; Sunggul Pasaribu; Gayus Simarmata; Bernard Simanjuntak; Junifer Siregar; Golda Novatrasio Sauduran
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan Volume 4 Nomor 3 (Januari 202
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/jerkin.v4i3.5115

Abstract

Kegiatan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (PkM) ini dilatarbelakangi oleh hasil studi awal bahwa banyak guru SMK Swasta Surya Pematangsiantar belum mengetahui konsep pembelajaran terdiferensiasi kurikulum merdeka dan belum pernah mendapatkan pelatihan mengenai multimedia pembelajaran. Selain itu, guru belum memahami konsep dan implementasi pembelajaran terdiferensiasi, guru masih menggunakan pendekatan, media, dan metode mengajar konvensionaltanpa melibatkan atau menggunakan multimedia pembelajaran. Dan yang terakhir, guru belum pernah mengikuti pelatihan pembuatan dan pengembangan multimedia pembelajaran interaktif, apalagi berbasis teknologi. Tujuan PkM ini adalah memberikan pelatihan pembuatan multimedia interaktif berbasis teknologi untuk memfasilitasi pembelajaran terdiferensiasi kurikulum merdeka yang terbagi atas empat kegiatan utama. Metode kegiatan PkM ini meliputi tahap persiapan program yang meliputi analisis situasi, kebutahan dan persiapan kebutuhan pelatihan. Selanjutnya, tahap pelaksanaan meliputi kegiatan pemberian materi pelatihan. Dan yang terakhir adalah tahap monitoring dan evaluasi serta keberlanjutan program yang meliputi pengumpulan data hasil pelatihan dan tindaklanjutnya. Terdapat empat hasil dari kegiatan PkM ini, pertama, Telah terselenggaranya pelatihan berupa pemberian materi pelatihan mengenai kurikulum merdeka, pembelajaran terdiferensiasi dan multimedia pembelajaran interaktif. Kedua, telahterselenggara pelatihan peningkatan keahlian guru dalam membuat materi pembelajaran terdiferensiasi yang sesuai dengan kurikulum merdeka. Ketiga, telah terselenggara workshop pembuatan multimediapembelajaran interaktif berbasis teknologi. Keempat, telah terselenggara pendampingan pembuatan multimediapembelajaran interaktif bagi mitra. Kesimpulan dari PkM adalah ada peningkatan pengetahuan dan keterampilan mitra PkM dalam hal ini guru SMK Swasta Surya Pematangsiantar mengenai kurikulum merdeka, pembelajaran terdiferensisi, multimedia interaktif dan perangkat ajar kurikulum merdeka
Application of CPM and PERT Methods in Residential Construction Project Scheduling: A Case Study Rajainal Saragih; Hengki Mangiring Parulian Simarmata; July Antasari Br Sinaga; Gayus Simarmata; Andi Manalu
Komputasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika Vol. 23 No. 2 (2026): Komputasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika
Publisher : Program Studi Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Pakuan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33751/komputasi.v23i2.101

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and optimize the scheduling of a residential construction project using the CPM, crashing techniques, and the PERT. A quantitative approach is employed by utilizing data obtained from observations and interviews conducted on a housing construction project in Bandar District, Simalungun Regency. CPM analysis is used to identify the critical path and determine the project duration, while crashing techniques are applied to obtain acceleration alternatives by considering additional costs. Furthermore, the PERT method is used to analyze uncertainty in project duration and to calculate the probability of project completion. The results show that the project duration under normal conditions is 59 days, with the critical path identified as A–B–D–E–G–H–J–O–P. After applying crashing, the project duration is reduced to 55 days with an additional cost of IDR 212,500. The PERT analysis indicates that the expected project duration is 44 days, with a completion probability of approximately 99% for a target duration of 49 days. These findings demonstrate that the combination of CPM, crashing, and PERT methods is effective in improving time and cost efficiency, while also providing a more reliable basis for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.
Peramalan Produksi Padi Di Kabupaten Simalungun Mengunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Dalam Mendukung Ketahanan Pangan Patricia Roma Some Manik; gayus simarmata; juli antasari sinaga
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 5, No 6 (2026): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v5i6.42694

Abstract

Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh pentingnya Kabupaten Simalungun sebagai lumbung pangan yang menyumbang 18% produksi di Sumatera Utara, namun menghadapi fluktuasi luas panen dan produksi. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk memodelkan dan meramalkan produksi padi menggunakan metode Box--Jenkins ARIMA guna mendukung kebijakan ketahanan pangan. Data yang digunakan adalah deret waktu produksi padi tahun 2016--2025 dari BPS Kabupaten Simalungun. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan IBM SPSS Statistics 27 melalui tahap identifikasi, estimasi parameter, dan uji diagnostik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model yang paling sesuai berdasarkan evaluasi untuk padi ladang adalah ARIMA (1,0,1). Untuk padi sawah, model yang paling sesuai berdasarkan evaluasi adalah ARIMA (0,0,1). Hasil penelitian ini memberikan estimasi awal mengenai produksi padi di Kabupaten Simalungun yang dapat digunakan sebagai informasi pendukung dalam proses perencanaan sektor pertanian.
Analysis of Students' Creative Thinking in Solving Pythagorean Theorem Problems Surya Bakti Pandiangan; Firman Pangaribuan; Gayus Simarmata
The Future of Education Journal Vol 3 No 5 (2024)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbitan dan Publikasi Ilmiah Yayasan Pendidikan Tumpuan Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61445/tofedu.v3i5.200

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the Creative Thinking Ability at UPTD SMP Negeri 12 Pematangsiantar Academic Year 2023/2024 located at Jl. Sibolga No. 12, Karo, Kec. South Siantar, Pematangsiantar City, North Sumatra Province. The subjects in this study were students who could be a source of information regarding the problems to be studied, so that the research subjects in the study entitled Analysis of Students' Creative Thinking in Solving Pythagorean Theorem Problems were 30 students in grades IX-7. Based on the results and discussions that the researcher has presented, the researcher can draw the following conclusions: 1. In Fluency Thinking, students with high, medium and low Creative Thinking abilities can gather information to form ideas. Subjects with high, medium, and low Creative Thinking abilities gain knowledge from learning experiences in the classroom. 2. At the Flexible Thinking stage, students who have high, medium, and low Creative Thinking abilities look for formulas according to the known questions. The higher the level of student creativity, the more diverse the answer solutions that emerge. While students who have low Creative Thinking skills cannot come up with diverse answers. 3. At the Originality stage, students who have high and moderate Creative Thinking skills are productive in producing unique answers, while subjects with low Creative Thinking skills are not productive in providing answers. Students who have low Creative Thinking skills give random answers because they do not have other alternative ways. 4. At the elaboration skill stage, students who have high and moderate Creative Thinking skills are able to develop detailed ideas often with innovative solutions while subjects with low Creative Thinking skills tend to provide a limited idea development process, with ideas that are less in-depth and less detailed in developing solutions.
Co-Authors Andi Manalu Anita Debora Simangunsong Benjamin A Simamora Bernard Simanjuntak Christa Voni R Sinaga Delta Panjaitan Firman Pangaribuan Golda Novatrasio Sauduran Hengki Mangiring Parulian Simarmata Hosea Togatorop Hutagalung, S.Lamriana Hutagalung, Sampe Roly Hutahaean, David Togi Indah Sagita Siahaan juli antasari sinaga July Antasari Br Sinaga Junifer Siregar Lubis, Nenni Faridah Nilam Sari Pane, Eva Pratiwi Pasaribu, Eva Pasaribu, Sunggul Patricia Roma Some Manik Purba, Christian Neni Purba, Nancy Angelia Rajainal Saragih Rina Devi Romauli Siahaan Rio Parsaoran Napitupulu Sabar Dumayanti Sihombing Sabrina Nainggolan Saragih, Reagan Surbakti Sasta Olivia Damanik Sauduran, Golda Novatrasio Shandy Nainggolan Siahaan, Theresia Monika Sidabutar, Ropinus Sinaga, Christa Voni Roulina Sitio, Hetdy Sitorus P, Lampola Situmorang, Eduward Surya Bakti Pandiangan Vina Merina Br Sianipar Vina Merina Br Sianipar Vita Riahni Saragih Yoel Octobe Purba