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Asri Nugrahanti, Asri
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Determining The Dynamics of The Petroleum Buffer Reserve of Indonesia Prima, Andry; Moengin, Parwadi; Astuti, Pudji; Sari, Emelia; Nugrahanti, Asri; Jawaid Butt, Osama
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas Vol 49 No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29017/scog.v49i1.1987

Abstract

This study develops an integrated system dynamics and probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate Indonesia’s Petroleum Buffer Reserve (PBR) strategy in alignment with Perpres 96/2024 and the nation’s broader energy security agenda. Monte Carlo simulation results reveal that only the scenario characterized by full import availability is capable of achieving the mandated 10.17-million-barrel reserve target, while all other scenarios consistently fail to accumulate sufficient stock under uncertainty. The probabilistic analysis further shows that this scenario yields a probability exceeding 98% of meeting or surpassing the target, in contrast to the near-zero success rates observed under restricted import conditions. Days-of-cover optimization highlights an additional strategic vulnerability: the current PBR target corresponds to only about 12 days of crude import protection. Building on the system’s dynamic behavior, this study recommends a minimum reserve target of 30 days as an immediately achievable benchmark. A 60-day reserve is identified as a feasible medium-term objective, provided that replenishment rates and storage capacity are enhanced. Achieving a 90-day reserve, consistent with international strategic stockpiling standards, would require substantial investment and diversification of supply sources. These findings underscore Indonesia’s structural dependence on imported crude oil and emphasize the need for assertive replenishment policies to strengthen national energy resilience
Co-Authors Andry Prima Arkaan, Muhammad Dzaki Aryanto, Reza Bayu Satiyawira Bayu Satyawira, Bayu Cahaya Rosyidan Djunaedi Agus Wibowo Dwi Nuryana, Suherman Emelia Sari FADLIANSACH, FARHAN fira, Safira Azzahra Harin Widiyatni Havidh Pramadika Husla, Ridha Jasmine, Gabriella Jawaid Butt, Osama Kadarusman, Sunarto Kartini, Rachmi Kashah, Muhammad Refli Lestari Lukas Pearlo, Kevin Maman Djumantara, Maman Mardiana, Dwi Atty Maulani, Mustamina Michael, David Mohammad Apriniyadi Mulia Ginting, Mulia Nugraheni, Rosmalia Dita Nurfajrin, Zakiah Darajat Octavia, Dione Jessica Parwadi Moengin Pauhesti, Pauhesti Pramadika, Havid PUDJI ASTUTI Putra, Rakha Handika Ristawati, Arinda Riswati, Arinda Samura, Lisa Sigit Rahmawan Soumokil, Reynaldo Roberth Steven Suherman Dwi Nuryana Suryo Prakoso, Suryo Syamsul Irham, Syamsul Utama, Yeriandi Widia Yanti, Widia Wiharjo, Lukas wiwik dahani, wiwik Young, Henry David