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Hozairi
Universitas Islam Madura
Humanities Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : JEECS (Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences)

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Forecasting Number of Legal Violations in Indonesian Sea Using the Fuzzy Double Exponential Smoothing Method Hozairi; Syariful Alim; Marcus Tukan
JEECS (Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2020): JEECS (Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik Universitas Bhayangkara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (426.725 KB) | DOI: 10.54732/jeecs.v5i2.97

Abstract

Maritime security in Indonesia is an indicator of the success of the Government in managing the sovereignty of the State because two-thirds of Indonesia is sea, so Indonesia is called a maritime country. This study aims to predict the number of law violations in Indonesian seas. Predicting events is a strategic step to set the next security operation strategy. The method used to predict violations of law at sea in Indonesia is Fuzzy Double Exponential Smoothing, the Fuzzy method is used to normalize violation data and the Double Exponential Smoothing method is used to predict future events, a combination of fuzzy and double exponential smoothing methods was developed to improve some previous research which only use exponential smoothing only in making predictions. The data processed is data on violations of law at sea in Indonesia from 1996 to 2019 from the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency. The results obtained from this study are the data smoothing constant value (α = 0.81), the trend smoothing value (γ = 0.08), the mean absolute percentage error value (MAPE = 21.78%) and the root mean value average error (RMSE = 60.72). The results of this study predict that the number of violations of law at sea in Indonesia in 2020 will decrease to 98 cases, this is due to several factors, including the focus of the Government on carrying out security operations in Indonesian seas in an integrated manner involving many institutions. The research contribution can be considered by Indonesian Maritime Security Agency to improve Indonesia's maritime security by involving institutions that have legal authority in Indonesian seas
Co-Authors A. F. Santosa AA. Masroeri Aang Kisnu Darmawan Abd Kuddus Abd. Munip Abd. Wafi Abdul Gafur Ach. Nurul Qomar Ach. Ramadhani Akhmad Arif Kurdianto Alim, Syariful Alim, Syarigul Amelia Muizatul Masfufah Aminatus Sa'diyah Anwari Anwari Anwari, Anwari Arfianto, Afif Zuhri Arya Yudhi Wijaya Bakir Bakir Bakir Bakir Bakir, Bakir Baskoro, Fajar Billy Jhones Camerling Budhi Hascaryo Iskandar Buhari Buhari Buhari Camerling, Billy Jhones Defilia Fatikasari Dian Afriyani Wulandar Efenie, Yuri Finanatun Halimiyah Fitra, Anis Hakamal Fikry Hakiem, Luqmanul Hanafi Heru Lumaksono Heru Lumaksono Heru Lumaksono Heru Lumaksono Hoiriyah, . Hoiriyah, Hoiriyah Husnul Khatimah Husnul Khatimah I Putu Sindhu Asmara Imamah Isvan Arifuddin John Haluan Juhairiyah Juhairiyah Juhairiyah Ketut Buda Artana Khoirur Rohman Lizami, Makinul Lumaksono, Heru Lumaksono, Heru M. Ali Fikri M. D. Artanti M. Zainul Hasan Madukil Makruf Maisyaroh, Rohimatul Marcus Tukan Marcus Tukan Masdukil Makruf, Masdukil Maulidanitamyizi, Moh Fahmi mochamad zainul Asrori Moh Syamsul Arifin Moh Wakid Moh. Badri Tamam Moh.Wildan Mauldy Mohammad Isa Irawan Mohammad Thezar Afifudin Mohammad Thezar Afifudin Mohammad Yofa Arifin Muhammad Agus Muljanto Muhsi, Muhsi Munadi Munadi Muzammil Nur Azizah Nurul Badriyah Nurul Hidayat Putri, Dewi Amiliana Rofiudin Roland Koswara Salman Alfarisi Syariful Alim Syariful Alim Syariful Alim Syariful Alim Taufiqurrohman Taufiqurrohman Tukan, Markus Ulifaturrisqoh wahyudi, furqon Wahyudi, Moh. Rafiqi Walid, Miftahul Yaser Krisnafi Yaser Krisnafi, Yaser Yoga Septian Dwi Pratama Yuri Efenie Zaifuddin, Zaifuddin