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All Journal Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Science and Technology Indonesia BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Math Educa Journal Bakti Cendana: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Logaritma : Jurnal Ilmu-ilmu Pendidikan dan Sains Journal of Science and Technology Mathematics and Applications (MAp) Journal Journal of Social Outreach Maqdis: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi Islam J-ABDIPAMAS (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat
Darvi Mailisa Putri
Universitas Islam Negeri Imam Bonjol Padang
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COMPARISON OF SEASONAL TIME SERIES FORECASTING USING SARIMA AND HOLT WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (CASE STUDY: WEST SUMATRA EXPORT DATA) Hasibuan, Lilis Harianti; Musthofa, Syarto; Putri, Darvi Mailisa; Jannah, Miftahul
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1773-1784

Abstract

Export is the activity of selling goods or services from one country to another. This activity usually occurs in a specific region or country. Export data is a type of data that has a seasonal pattern. This study aims to compare SARIMA and Holt Winter’s methods in forecasting export data. In this study, the SARIMA model ((1,1,1) (0,1,1))12 and Holt Winter's simulation were obtained. The data used is the export data of West Sumatra from 2016 to 2022. The best model is the one with the smallest MAPE or MAD. The SARIMA model yielded a MAPE of 0,437% and MAD of 78,821. Meanwhile, the Holt Winter's method yielded a MAPE of 0,894% and MAD of 163,320 with α=0,2, β=0,5, γ=0,1. Therefore, the SARIMA outperformed the Holt Winter’s method due to its higher accuracy. It can be concluded that the SARIMA is suitable to use as the forecasting model in this case. In this study, forecast have been made for the next 24 periods, from January 2023 to December 2024.
COMPARISON OF DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN IN FORECASTING FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVALS Putri, Darvi Mailisa; Afrimayani, Afrimayani; Hasibuan, Lilis Harianti; Ul Hasanah, Fitri Rahmah; Jannah, Miftahul
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1817-1828

Abstract

Foreign tourist arrivals are one of the factors that make a positive contribution to a country's economy, especially the addition of foreign exchange. This activity is important for the tourism industry and the government to make policies for progress in the tourism sector. This research aims to forecast data on foreign tourist arrivals, especially land routes. This data set, which is a monthly time series covering the period from January 2018 to October 2023, is sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The DES technique is a method that quickly adapts to changes in data patterns and can lessen the impacts of random fluctuations, resulting in more stable estimates. Meanwhile, the FTS-MC approach can handle large data variations by utilizing fuzzy sets. Furthermore, combining fuzzy time series with Markov Chains increases forecast accuracy by taking into account state transitions and probability. The research demonstrates that the DES method produces the MAPE value of 0.108530 or 10% which is obtained from the alpha value of 0.9 and beta 0.2. The MAPE 0.108530 means that the ability of the forecasting model is classified as a good category. In the FTS-MC method, the forecast data is close to the actual data. This is indicated by the MAPE value obtained of 0.086850 or 8%, which means that the ability of the forecasting model is very good. Based on the analysis of the two methods, it is concluded that the FTS-MC method is better applied to data on land-based foreign tourist arrivals.
Co-Authors Afrimayani Afrimayani Afrimayani, Afrimayani AGHSILNI AGHSILNI AGHSILNI, AGHSILNI Amalina Amalina Amalina Amalina, Amalina Annur, Lathifah Asfa'ani, Ezhari Asfa’ani, Ezhari Bagus Pribadi, Bagus Devianto, Dodi Fitri Rahmah Ul Hasanah Friska, Dina Hasibuan, Lilis Harianti LA ODE SABRAN Mahendra, Fikri Rizky Maiyastri, Maiyastri Mardika, Fitria MIFTAHUL JANNAH Miftahul Jannah Miftahul Jannah Miftahul Jannah Miftahul Jannah Mohamad Syafi’i Muhammad Naufan Rizqullah Musthofa, Syarto Novia Lestari Nur, Rizki Amalia Prima Aswirna Rahman, Alfit Rani Kurnia Putri Reihani Jemila Nurbai Rianjaya, Ilham Dangu Salsabila, Unik Hanifah Sepri, Domi Serly Cania Subhan Ajrin Sudirman Syahadah, Nadila Syarto Musthofa Syarto Musthofa Ul Hasanah, Fitri Rahmah Yuharnida, Yuharnida Yurinanda, Sherli