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All Journal Journal of Saintech Transfer To Maega: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vokasi Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Terapan
Th. Candra Wasis Agung Sutignya
Politeknik Negeri Pontianak
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Other

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Implementasi Simple dan Weighted Moving Average dalam Peramalan Produksi Keripik Labu Kuning pada UMKM X di Pontianak: Implementation of Simple and Weighted Moving Average in Forecasting the Production of Yellow Pumpkin Chips at MSME X in Pontianak Sariati; Borneo Satria Pratama; Yesrol Elia Sanak; Alfred Pandapotan Saragih; Erinkha Miftah Urrahmah; Elsa Windiastuti; Th. Candra Wasis Agung Sutignya; Holpu Ronal Ambarita; Rianta Chen Yohana Manik; Triva Maria Manik
Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Terapan Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Agustus
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25047/jtpt.v3i1.6291

Abstract

UMKM (Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah) X merupakan produsen keripik labu kuning di Pontianak yang mengalami fluktuasi produksi akibat belum adanya perencanaan berbasis data historis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menerapkan metode Simple Moving Average (SMA) dan Weighted Moving Average (WMA) dalam peramalan jumlah produksi serta membandingkan tingkat akurasi keduanya menggunakan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Data produksi keripik labu dikumpulkan selama periode Desember 2023 hingga November 2024. Peramalan dilakukan untuk bulan Desember 2024 dengan dua rentang waktu (n = 3 dan n = 6). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa SMA dengan n = 6 memberikan hasil ramalan sebesar 16,67 kg dengan nilai MAD terendah sebesar 1,74. Sementara itu, WMA dengan n = 6 menghasilkan ramalan sebesar 16,24 kg dengan nilai MAD sebesar 2,09. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, metode SMA dengan periode 6 bulan memberikan akurasi peramalan terbaik. Oleh karena itu, pendekatan ini direkomendasikan untuk digunakan UMKM X sebagai dasar dalam perencanaan produksi dan operasional yang lebih efisien.
Rancang Bangun Sistem Informasi Penjualan Sarana Produksi Berbasis VBA Macro Excel di KUD Samas Laksito, Anggit; Patappa, Adi Marjani; Sutignya, Th. Candra Wasis Agung
Vokasi: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Vol. 20 No. 2 (2025): Vokasi: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Pontianak

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Abstract

A sales information system is a series of activities that are related to each other and work together to achieve a common goal, namely increasing sales. Agricultural production facilities are a set of tools that support the cultivation process and have the potential to increase the results of agricultural production. The information system for sales of production facilities at KUD SAMAS still uses a manual system with books. So there is often a loss of stock of goods in the warehouse due to poor record keeping and also damaged goods not being recorded, causing losses in KUD SAMAS sales. Therefore, a production facilities sales information system was designed using the waterfall method. This method was chosen because the waterfall method presents an option for developing the system in stages. So this can save costs incurred to build the system. In its design, this sales information system is based on the VBA Macro Excel programming language. Using VBA Macro Excel can make things easier for users because the input entered is adjusted to the user's needs. The system created also does not use an internet network, making it easier to access.
Implementation of Simple and Weighted Moving Average for Forecasting Tela-Tela Production in MSME X Sariati, Sariati; Pratama, Borneo Satria; Albar, Ferdy; Sitio, Dea Yolanda Putri; Riandry, Dimas Dwika; Antonio, Marcho; Januarti, Sri; Aliansyah, Bayu Rimba; Sutignya, Th. Candra Wasis Agung; Solfianti, Maidia; Erwan, Erwan; Sembiring, Loko Jeremia
RIGGS: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Vol. 4 No. 4 (2026): November - January
Publisher : Prodi Bisnis Digital Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/riggs.v4i4.5205

Abstract

Accurate production forecasting is essential for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to support effective production planning, inventory control, and decision-making. This study evaluates the performance of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Weighted Moving Average (WMA) methods in forecasting tela-tela production demand at MSME X using different historical period lengths. Production data from November 2023 to October 2024 were analyzed, and forecasting accuracy was assessed using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that forecasting accuracy varies depending on both the length of the moving average period and the weighting scheme applied. The WMA model with a 4-period window (n = 4) achieved the highest accuracy, producing the lowest MAPE value of 8.36%, which is classified as highly accurate. The SMA model with n = 4 also demonstrated good performance, with a MAPE value of 14.40%. Meanwhile, models employing longer historical periods (n = 8) yielded MAPE values of 16.20% for WMA and 19.82% for SMA, both falling within the good forecasting performance category but exhibiting lower responsiveness to recent demand changes. These findings highlight that shorter historical periods, when combined with appropriate weighting, can more effectively capture recent demand patterns in dynamic production environments. Accordingly, the WMA method with a 4-period window is recommended for MSME X as a reliable and accurate approach to support production planning, optimize resource allocation, and reduce the risk of overproduction or stock shortages.  
Co-Authors Adi Marjani Patappa Albar, Ferdy Alfred Pandapotan Saragih Aliansyah, Bayu Rimba Antonio, Marcho Anwar, Misbahul Borneo Satria Pratama Brigita Ratna Harsanti Cici, Cici Elsa Windiastuti Erinkha Miftah Urrahmah Erwan Erwan, Erwan Fadly, Dzul Febtysiana, Nur Fajar Hillary, Janne Holpu Ronal Ambarita Ichsan Ichsan Janne Hillary Januarti, Sri Laksito, Anggit Nur Fajar Febtysiana Oke Anandika Lestari Pratama, Borneo Satria Revi Sesario Riandry, Dimas Dwika Rianta Chen Yohana Manik Sariati Sariati Sariati, Sariati Sembiring, Loko Jeremia Sesario, Revi Sitio, Dea Yolanda Putri Solfianti, Maidia Sutiye, Sutiye Syamsi, Wisi Wilanda Triva Maria Manik Widadi Padmarsari Soetignya Winda Rahmalia Yesrol Elia Sanak Yohana Sutiknyawati Kusuma Dewi