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Mohammad Rofiuddin
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Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Published by Nur Science Institute
ISSN : -     EISSN : 27978141     DOI : https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies [2797-8141] is a scientific journal that contains the results of theoretical research and studies on economics issues. The focus of this journal article is Economics, Economic Entrepreneurship, and start-up, development economics, monetary and fiscal policies, Islamic finance, international and regional economics, institutional economics, and tourism economics, agriculture economics, labor economics, behavioral economics, environmental economics, SMEs financing, feasibility studies, community empowerment, coastal economics, Islamic economics, Cognitive economics, Law and Economics, Social and Economic Statistics, Econophysics, Economics of Entrepreneurship, and Political Economics.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (Lain-Lain)
Articles 134 Documents
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Prediksi harga minyak mentah WTI dengan menggunakan metode Garch dalam ancaman perang dunia III Lestari, Tri; Andriani, Putri; Gunawan, Didik; Cahyadi, Willy
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i1.1778

Abstract

This research aims to forecast fluctuations in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil within the potential threat of World War III by utilizing the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) method. Using daily closing price data of WTI crude oil from January 2022 to March 2025, consisting of 850 observations, this study employs the ARIMA-GARCH model to capture the patterns and volatility of the time series data. Based on the conducted analysis, it is concluded that the ARIMA (2,1,2) and GARCH (1,1) models demonstrate optimal performance, with a MAPE value of 13.71%, indicating a good prediction accuracy level. The forecast for the next two years shows a trend of price increases starting from Q2 2025 through Q4 2027. This research demonstrates how geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern Conflicts, can affect global oil price volatility while highlighting the GARCH model’s effectiveness in capturing heteroskedasticity in highly fluctuating financial data.
Understanding rice price formation in Central Java: Interactions between market forces, food security, and climate anomalies Rachman, M Aulia
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i1.1826

Abstract

This study analyzes the complex factors influencing rice prices in Central Java, Indonesia, during 2018-2024 using panel data analysis. The findings reveal that while cooking oil and sugar prices generally exhibit a positive influence on rice prices via consumption spillovers, the effect of cooking oil became negative in 2021-2024. Domestic rice production significantly depresses prices, whereas food consumption expenditure shows a positive correlation. The Regional Food Security Index (FSI) negatively correlates with rice prices, and the disparity related to the government's Maximum/Highest Retail Price (HET) ratio is positively correlated. Notably, El Niño 3.4 index anomalies consistently drive rice prices upward, highlighting climate vulnerability. Policy implications emphasize integrated interventions encompassing inflation control, production stabilization, food security enhancement, HET evaluation, and climate change mitigation. Additionally, it recommends stronger institutional coordination in rice price and supply chain management.
Analisis masalah yang dihadapi pelaku UMKM di Kabupaten Klaten Basuki, Basuki; Putri, Arie Rachma; Winoto, Agil Bayu; Oktavia, Amanda
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1835

Abstract

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a crucial role in the economic development and growth of communities. This study aims to analyze the primary challenges faced by business operators in Klaten Regency across the aspects of production, marketing, and financing. The research employs a quantitative descriptive method, utilizing primary data collected from 30 business operators through questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions, and observations. The majority of business operators are women, with an average age of 43 years, and they operate primarily in the culinary sector. The research findings indicate that the main challenges faced include limited marketing opportunities, restricted access to capital, and difficulties in obtaining adequate raw materials and production facilities. The implementation of digital marketing strategies remains minimal, hindering market expansion, and access to business financing is also limited. To address these issues, it is recommended to provide digital marketing training, ease access to microfinance, provide shared production facilities, and ensure the availability of raw materials. These efforts are expected to enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of SMEs in the face of the digital economy’s development and promote local economic growth.
Analisis Keterbukaan Ekonomi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di 6 Negara ASEAN Fatmawati, Anisa; Purnomo, Sodik Dwi; Jati, Damar; Setiawan, Gawik
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i1.1837

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of economic openness, inflation, FDI, and government spending on economic growth in six ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines, from 2009 to 2021. The analysis method used in this study uses panel data analysis using a random effect model (REM) approach. This research shows that economic openness has a significant positive effect, inflation and government spending do not significantly affect economic growth, and FDI has a significant adverse effect on economic growth in six ASEAN countries. This research implies that the government must improve the domestic economy’s performance (producers) through import substitution policies and improved export governance with accommodative policies such as reducing export duties and VAT rates of 0 percent for producers who have just entered export activities. The government needs to improve the availability of market facilities and infrastructure and reduce barriers in exchanges between countries; this is so that there are more market choices for domestic producers to export and market choices for imports at competitive prices and lower costs due to good infrastructure. The limitations of this study are that it only examines the problems of the influence of economic openness, inflation, FDI, and government spending.
Dampak upah minimum, IPM, dan partisipasi angkatan kerja terhadap pengangguran: Analisis data panel lima kabupaten Jawa Tengah Salsabila , ‘Ainun Hanum; Rahmatillah, Agisva Elvatikha; Arwansa, Damai; Mukharohmah, Maulia Siti; Septiani, Yustirania
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i1.1864

Abstract

This study examines the factors influencing the open unemployment rate in five regencies—Brebes, Cilacap, Tegal, Pemalang, and Banyumas—during 2017–2023. These regions were selected due to their consistently higher unemployment rates than the national average. The variables analyzed include the Regency Minimum Wage, Human Development Index (HDI), and Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The Random Effects Model (REM) conducted a panel data regression analysis. The results show that the minimum wage significantly affects the open unemployment rate, while HDI and LFPR have significant adverse effects. These variables explain a substantial portion of unemployment variation across the selected regencies. The findings suggest that policymakers should balance wage regulations, increase investment in education and health, and promote industrial development to support job creation. The results provide empirical insights to assist local governments, labor agencies, and other stakeholders in formulating evidence-based employment policies.
Hubungan indeks pembangunan manusia dan pengangguran dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah di Provinsi Lampung Kurniadi, Danang; Syamsiyah, Nur; Yunarti, Yuyun
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1867

Abstract

The goal of this study is to examine the relationship between the HDI and unemployment rates, and the GDP growth rate in Lampung Province from 2020 to 2024. This quantitative study integrates cross-sectional data from 15 cities and districts in Lampung Province with time-series data spanning five years. The CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics) was consulted for the data retrieval. The Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was chosen as the best estimating model after the Chow and Hausman tests proved its appropriateness. The results indicate that the Human Development Index has a positive impact on regional economic growth. In contrast, unemployment has little bearing on Lampung Province's economic growth. The findings suggest that healthcare and education reforms have the potential to increase productivity and drive regional economic growth. Additionally, although it is not the primary factor, the combined effect of the Human Development Index and unemployment rates has a significant influence on the economic growth of Lampung Province.
Evaluasi proyek pengembangan start-up wedding organizer berbasis kemitraan dan kebijakan ekonomi kreatif model countenance stake Josua, Dian Pertiwi; Siregar, Jenny Sista; Nuridayanti, Nuridayanti; Sutisna, Anan; Suseno, Muchlas; Karlina, Elin
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1742

Abstract

The limited systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of partnership-based projects in supporting creative economy policies poses a challenge in developing sustainable entrepreneurship models. This study aims to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of partnership-based Wedding Organizer start-up development projects in supporting national creative economy policies. The evaluation was conducted using Stake's Countenance Model, which includes three main components: antecedents, transactions, and outcomes. The research instrument was developed based on three layers of theory: Grand Theory, Middle Range Theory, and Applied Theory. It was then validated using Aiken's V approach and tested for reliability using Cronbach's Alpha. The study's results indicate that the program has a positive impact on increasing the entrepreneurial capacity of participants, enhancing the effectiveness of partnership-based training, and promoting business sustainability. The program also successfully established a broad business network, directly contributing to local economic growth. These findings provide new insights into the effectiveness of evaluating partnership models within the creative economy ecosystem. This evaluation model can be replicated and adapted for similar programs in other creative sectors to support community-based development policies.
Analisis Indeks Pasar Saham Global terhadap ISSI: Studi pada DJIA, Nikkei 225, dan SSEC dengan Pendekatan Error Correction Model Ermawati, Saffitri; Nurhadi, Bayu
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1808

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nikkei 225, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) indices on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in both the long and short term, spanning the period from January 2015 to December 2024. This study utilizes secondary data and employs a quantitative approach, utilizing the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The results indicate that, in the long term, the DJIA and SSEC have a significant negative impact on the ISSI. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 has a significant positive impact on the ISSI. In the short term, the DJIA has a significant positive impact on the ISSI, while the Nikkei 225 and SSEC have no significant impact on the ISSI. The results of this study indicate that the Nikkei 225 index influences the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in the long term and the DJIA index in the short term. These findings underscore the importance of considering global market dynamics, particularly in Japan and the United States, as a reference for making Sharia investment decisions in Indonesia to anticipate fluctuations and capitalize on market growth opportunities.
Keterkaitan jumlah wisatawan mancanegara, tingkat hunian hotel, PDRB, dan pendapatan asli daerah: Bukti dari Provinsi Kalimantan Barat Kue, Renata; Kartika, Metasari
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1868

Abstract

Tourism is a rapidly developing industry in many countries. Tourism is a sector with the potential to drive the development of the national and regional economy, and it is also one of the key sectors contributing to the increase in PAD. West Kalimantan Province has tourism potential that needs to be explored, enabling the regional economy to develop rapidly. Using quantitative descriptive methods, analyzed with panel data regression. The results of this study indicate that the variables of the number of foreign tourists and hotel occupancy rates have a positive, yet insignificant, effect on regional original income. In contrast, the variable of gross regional domestic product has a positive and significant effect on regional original income. Simultaneously, the variables of the number of foreign tourists, hotel occupancy rates, and gross regional domestic product have a positive and significant effect on regional original income in West Kalimantan Province from 2014 to 2023. These findings can be used to support the formulation of regional economic policies related to the important role of the tourism sector in efforts to increase local revenue (PAD).
Pemetaan konseptual peran agroforestri dalam pertanian berkelanjutan dan ekonomi sirkular Cahyani, Sukma
Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Publisher : Nur Science Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53088/jerps.v5i2.1897

Abstract

Global challenges related to food security, environmental degradation, and resource constraints drive the need for innovation in agricultural systems. Conventional agricultural models often overlook ecological balance and resource efficiency, resulting in long-term negative impacts. This study aims to map the conceptual role of agroforestry in supporting sustainable agriculture and the circular economy. This study employs a qualitative approach, utilising a systematic literature review method. The results of the study indicate that agroforestry functions as a key link that integrates ecological, social, and economic aspects in agricultural systems. Agroforestry enhances soil health and fertility by increasing organic matter content, promoting nitrogen fixation, and reducing soil erosion, while optimising resource use through circular economy principles, such as the utilisation of organic waste and closed production cycles. The synergy between agroforestry, sustainable agriculture, and circular economy produces an environmentally friendly, productive, and socially and economically sustainable production model. Thus, agroforestry is a key strategy for addressing the challenges of future agricultural development, supporting food security, environmental conservation, and enhancing community welfare holistically.

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