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Nurchim Nurchim
Universitas Duta Bangsa Surakarta
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From Zero Sales to Survival: Forecast-triggered Decision-making in Ecotourism MSMEs Singgih Purnomo; Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari; Nurchim Nurchim; Novemy Triyandari Nugroho
Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Mas Said Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22515/shirkah.v11i1.1108

Abstract

Ecotourism micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) often face highly volatile demand characterized by frequent zero-sales days, strong seasonality, and exposure to external shocks. In such conditions, sustainability depends less on forecast accuracy and more on timely, low-cost operational decisions. This study examines how forecast-triggered decision-making supports short-run viability under intermittent, zero-heavy demand. Using manually recorded daily sales data from ecotourism MSMEs in Tawangmangu, Indonesia, a two-stage approach is applied that separates sale occurrence from sales magnitude. First, a logistic model estimates the probability of a sale to generate early-warning signals. Second, conditional sales magnitude is predicted to indicate readiness levels rather than precise revenue targets. Instead of focusing on accuracy alone, the analysis evaluates decision usefulness through time-ordered backtesting, emphasizing avoidable operating days and early-warning lead time. The results show that sale-occurrence signals effectively guide daily operating decisions, while magnitude forecasts support proportional readiness. The framework identifies a substantial share of avoidable operating days and provides several days of advance warning before prolonged zero-sales periods. This enables earlier cost control and capacity adjustment. The study contributes by offering a practical, human-in-the-loop decision framework that links demand uncertainty with adaptive actions using simple, manually recorded data.
Co-Authors Abdullah Abdullah Syaifudin Achmad Sholichin Afu Ichsan Pradana Agus Riyanto Agustina Srirahayu Ahmad Qashid Husaini Ahmad Setiawan Al Mustofa, Muhammad Hafizh Andrean, Fauzi Andy Ariyanto Ardi Lestari, Sofiana Ardianto Pambudi Arif Wicahyanto Assidiq, Abdul Hafid Atina, Vihi Atmojo, Fattah Satrio Atmojo, Fernando Winantya Aulia, Sherina Revita Awang Long, Zalizah Bagus Muhammad Latif Bondan Wahyu Pamekas Bondan Wahyu Pamekas Carolina Wibowo, Anita Cipto Utomo, Bangun Prajadi Dwi Hartanti Dwi Hartanti Dwi Kurniawan Saputro Edy Kurniawan Eko Purwanto Eko Purwanto Faiq Muhammad, Nibras Feri Setiyono Gabriel Ardana Hasanah, Herliyani Herliyani Hasanah Ibnu Bagus Setiawan Ichsan Pradana, Afu immaculata yolia dewi Widayanti Indah Nofikasari Indriyas Kukuh Wijayanti Irawan, Etwin Hendri Joni Maulindar Krisna Joko Purjianto Kurniawan, Daniel Ade Mahendra Abdul Rahman, Rizqy Maskhul Ryan Ibrahim Maulindar, Joni Muhammad Nibras Faiq Muhammad Rais Ramadhani Mumu, Raul Galvin Rudolf Munaiseche, Christian Imanuel Muttaqi, Bagas Ningsih, Pipin Widya Novemy Triyandari Nugroho Novianto, Novianto Nugroho, Mohammad Yusuf Nurhayati Nurhayati Nurlita, Catarina Ivanda Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari Oktaviani, Intan Pamekas, Bondan Wahyu Permatasari, Hanifah Pipit Vidianti Pradana, Afu Ichsan Pramono Pramono Pramono Prasetya, Ian Putra Prastyo, Okik Dwi Pratama, Wahyu Adi Purwanto, Eko Putra Prasetya, Ian Putra Prasetya Putra Pratama, Dita Putra, Wihan Perkasa Nugraha Ragil Saputro, Abdullah Rahadian, Dwiki Rasya Rudi Susanto Rukmini, Siti Santoso, Tri Djoko Saputra, Muchammad Yoga Sari, Nur Avia Adenta Setrayana, Abiyyu Sholeh, Ilham Singgih Purnomo Sopingi Sulistyo Wahyu S Sumarlinda, Sri Suryadi, Agung Suryani, Fajar Suryani, Fajar Suryani Taufik Hidayat Tejo Arum, Dinenda Tri Djoko Santosa Untoro, Fendi Uvi Firgianingsih Uvi Firgianingsih Widayanti, immaculata yolia dewi Wijayanti, Indriyas Kukuh Wijiyanto Wijiyanto Wijiyanto Wijiyanto, Wijiyanto Yommy Adhiwira Yudha Yunita Wisda Tumarta Arif Zalizah Awang Long Zalizah Awang Long