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All Journal Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang JMPM: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Desimal: Jurnal Matematika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Dinamisia: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat UNSIQ Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Matematika UNAND Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications ILKOMNIKA: Journal of Computer Science and Applied Informatics InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education Indonesian Journal of Applied Research (IJAR) JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Jurnal Diferensial Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi International Journal of Health, Economics, and Social Sciences (IJHESS) Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Unnes Journal of Mathematics Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA) Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications Hexagon: Jurnal Ilmu dan Pendidikan Matematika Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Salmun K. Nasib
Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
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Journal : Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)

 1 
Determination of Premium Price for Rice Crop Insurance in Gorontalo Province Based on Rainfall Index with Black Scholes Method Nadiyyah, Ana; Rahmi, Emli; Nasib, Salmun K.; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Yahya, Nisky Imansyah; Nashar, La Ode
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp51-62

Abstract

With its complex topography, Gorontalo Province experiences significant rainfall variations that impact the agricultural sector, particularly rice crops. These variations can cause substantial losses for farmers. One way to address uncertain probabilities caused by rainfall is through agricultural insurance. This research aims to calculate the value of agricultural insurance premiums based on the rainfall index. The Black- Scholes method is used to calculate the premiums, while the Burn Analysis method is employed to determine the rainfall index. The research results classify the rainfall index values in Gorontalo Province into 7 (seven) percentiles. The lowest is at the 20th percentile, with 17.37 mm and a premium value of IDR 1,574,190, while the highest is at the 80th percentile, with 17.65 mm and a premium value of IDR 2,154,574. This indicates that the higher the rainfall, the greater the premium to be paid.
Wind Speed Category Characteristics in Bone Bolango Regency: A Markov Chain Approach Using the Beaufort Scale and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm Pomahiya, Saiful; Nurwan, Nurwan; Yahya, Nisky Imansyah; Nasib, Salmun K.; Hasan, Isran K.; Asriadi, Asriadi
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp63-68

Abstract

This study models daily wind speed transitions in the Bone Bolango Regency using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, employing the Beaufort scale for wind speed classification. The research aims to predict the steady-state distribution of wind speeds and evaluate their temporal stability. Daily wind speed data from 2023, provided by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), were categorized into three levels: calm, light breeze, and fresh breeze, based on the Beaufort scale. Transition probabilities were estimated using the Beta distribution, and simulations via the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm yielded the steady-state distribution. Results show a significant tendency for transitions from calm and light breeze categories to fresh breezes, with varying probabilities. Notably, calm conditions exhibit a 69% likelihood of transitioning to a light breeze. This research contributes to improving wind speed prediction models by integrating statistical algorithms with meteorological classifications. The findings have implications for enhancing short-term weather forecasts and developing predictive systems for regions with similar weather patterns.
Co-Authors Abas Kaluku Abdul Wahab Abdullah Adam, Dwi Putri Juniar Afifah Farhanah Akadji Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Ainun Sukmawati Al Idrus Akadji, Afifah Farhanah Al Idrus, Ainun Sukmawati Armayani Arsal Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Biduli, Meiske Cindy Aisa Putri Noor Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Djafar, Fitria Djihad Wungguli Fadilah Istiqomah Pammus Fatmawati, Ainun Firdaus, Novarianti Gani, Friansyah Hamani, Mohamad Taufik Harun, Trieke Nurfadilah Hasan S. Panigoro Hasan, Riyanto Hinelo, Ikrar Prasetyo I Wayan Can Aryasandi Imran, Nurain Indrawati Lihawa Isa, Jefri N. Ismail Djakaria Isran K Hasan Jusuf, Anryan Kasim, Afrianto Pratama Kiayi, Fuji Fauzia La Ode Nashar Lailany Yahya Lakisa, Narti Macmud, Tedy Madonsa, Muhammad Rifai Mahmud, Sri Lestari Mahrifat Ismail Marukai, Nur Amalia Mokodompit, Marcela Muhammad Rifai Katili Nadiyyah, Ana Naue, Siti Nurmeylisya Nikmatisni Arsad Ningsih, Setia NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Pomahiya, Saiful Putri Ayuningtias Mahdang Rahmi, Emli Rakhmat Jaya Lahay Rauf, Dewi Nur Angriani Resmawan Resmawan Sembiring, Rinawati Sigar, Tesya Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Stella Junus Sumarno Ismail Syahrizal Koem Taha, Dennynatalis Tiarawati, Ni Wayan Usman, Rizal Wahab, Nur Dhea wolah, Meitasya Yanuari, Eka Dicky D Zian Bula