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Analisis Harga Cabai Di Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara Menggukan Metode Path Analys Hazrah, Ardaniah; Rambe, Feby Mayori; Siregar, Mei Sarah; Fransiska, Sintia; Widyasari, Rina
Jurnal IPTEK Bagi Masyarakat Vol 2 No 3 (2023)
Publisher : Ali Institute of Research and Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55537/jibm.v2i3.537

Abstract

While doing practical work at the Central Bureau of Statistics for Sumatra Province, practitioners often help enter agricultural data such as prices, harvested area, and chili production. The price of chili in several provinces of North Sumatra varies, depending on the production and harvested area of chili in that area. The purpose of this study was to determine how much influence the chili harvest area variable had on the production and average price of chili in North Sumatra Province. The data in this study is secondary data obtained from BPS in 22 regencies in North Sumatra in 2021. The form of this research is descriptive analysis using a quantitative approach method by forming a linear regression equation in path analysis and statistical data processing using SPSS 20. There are two modeling In research using path analysis, the first model is harvested area as the independent variable on chili production as the dependent variable, and the second model looks at the effect of the dependent and independent variables on the intervening variable, namely the average price of chili. The results showed that the harvest area variable had a significant effect on chili production. While production and harvested area have no significant effect on the average price of chili.
Model for Working Capital Management of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises in Indonesia by Using Multiple Objective Stochastic Programming Gultom, Parapat; Widyasari, Rina; Suyanto; Marpaung, Jonathan Liviera
Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology Vol. 5 No. 2 (2023): Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology (JoRMTT)
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/jormtt.v5i2.15937

Abstract

Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) have a big influence for the economy in Indonesia. But almost of this company don’t have an optimal working capital management because less knowledge and limitation of financial not only from the owner but also financial credit from bank. Working capital management plays an important role in the success or failure of a company its business activities. To achieve optimal use of working capital management managers the company must accurately control the trade-off between profitability and liquidity. The purpose of this research is to develop a model of working capital management where the sales are under uncertainty and the company has a limit financial. This study was tested using multiple linear regression analysis to see the correlation between profitability and liquidity with x1, x2, x3, x4, and x5 then find optimal solution by stochastic multi objective programming because we consider that sales is in under certainty. The main variables used in the analysis of return on assets to measure profitability, receivable turnover to measure liquidity, inventory turnover, accounts payable days, cash conversion. The results showed that account payable, inventory turnover, and cash turn over have a positive correlation for liquidity but inventory turnover and cash turnover have negative correlation to profitability.
OPTIMASI PENDISTRIBUSIAN BERAS DENGAN PENERAPAN METODE IMPROVED ZERO POINT METHOD PADA PERUM BULOG KANTOR CABANG MEDAN Muhammad Alfi Syahri Harahap; Cipta, Hendra; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3317

Abstract

This study discusses the Implementation of the Improved Zero Point Method in optimizing the distribution of rice at Perum Bulog Medan Branch Office with the goal to be achieved, namely, optimizing or minimizing the cost of distributing rice. In this study, problem solving was solved using the North West Corner Method as the initial solution, and the Improved Zero Point Method as the optimal solution. The results of this study obtained an initial solution, namely, Rp. 11,619,850, then we calculate using the optimal solution we get a reduction in distribution costs of Rp. 8,089,900.
Pemodelan Angka Harapan Hidup Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Regresi Semi parametrik Spline Melati, Melati Puspita Sari Lubis; Widyasari, Rina; Aprilia, Rima
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3350

Abstract

Angka harapan hidup merupakan dugaan hidup rata-rata seseorang atau dengan kata lain umur yang mungkin didapat seseorang yang lahir pada waktu tertentu. Menurut data Badan Pusat Statistik, Sumatera Utara berada pada posisi terendah di pulau Sumatera dengan rata-rata angka harapan hidup dengan angka 67,22 pada laki-laki dan 71,08 pada perempuan. Angka ini juga masih dibawah rata-rata angka harapan hidup nasional. Hal ini menunjukkan program-program kesehatan di Sumatera Utara perlu menjadi prioritas dalam pembangunan manusia di Sumatera Utara. Metode yang digunakan umtuk memodelkan angka harapan hidup Sumatera Utara yaitu Regresi Semiparametrik Spline Truncated. Regresi semi parametrik merupakan perpaduan antara regresi parametrik dan regresi nonparametrik dengan sebagian bentuk pola data yang diketahui dan ada sebagian pola data yang tidak diketahui. Adapun tujuan yang didapatkan untuk mengetahui model terbaik dari hasil pola data hubungan variabel respon dan variabel prediktor. Hasil penelitian ini diperoleh nilai MSE sebesar 7,3893 dan GCV sebesar 1,3169. Dengan persamaan model sebagai berikut: Dengan nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 39,47% yang dapat diartikan kemampuan variabel prediktor dalam menjelaskan variabel responnya sebesar 39,47% dan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor lain.
Penerapan Metode ADL Pengaruh Harga BBM dan Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Inflasi di Kota Medan Sarah, Henny May; Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3412

Abstract

Inflation is a general and continuous tendency to increase the price of goods. Factors causing inflation include increases in fuel prices and money supply. The general impact of inflation is a decrease in domestic investment, an increase in interest rates, encouraging investment through speculation, failure to develop, economic instability, a balance of payments deficit, and lowering the standard of living and welfare of the community.The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of fuel prices and the amount of money in circulation on inflation in the city of Medan. The model used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) Model. If the variables in the ADL model, both the dependent variable and the independent variable have a unit root, usually performed stasionary test. The ADL model as-sumes stationary data even if the dependent and independent variables are nei-ther stationary or cointegrated. The test results indicate that there is no cointe-gration between the variables, and the model produced indicates that the varia-bles affecting the price of fuel and the availability of money have a considerable impact on inflation, with a coefficient of determination of 71,4% and a MAPE value of 15,64%, making it suitable for making predictions.
Penerapan Analisis Lasso dalam Menentukan Penyebab Utama Faktor Kematian Pasien Komorbid yang Terinfeksi Covid-19 Siregar, Agung Lesmana; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3456

Abstract

Tingkat kematian akibat COVID-19 saat ini sangatlah mengkhawatirkan. Pada pasien dengan komorbid (penyakit pembawa) tingkat kematian semakin tinggi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui komorbid apa saja yang berisiko kematian akibat COVID-19 berdasarkan ketepatan datang pengobatan di RSU Haji Kota Medan, dengan menggunakan metode LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator). Keunggulan metode ini adalah mendapatkan hasil koefisien nol atau mendekati nol, yang menyebabkan terseleksinya variabel independen dengan diketahui koefisien dari usia, kadar gula darah, tekanan darah, hemoglobin, kreatinin dan saturasi oksigen. Berdasarkan koefisien hemoglobin memiliki nilai tertinggi dan menjadi variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap kematian akibat COVID-19. Hemoglobin dapat mempengaruhi tingkat oksigen di dalam tubuh karena saturasi oksigen adalah presentase hemoglobin yang mengikat oksigen. Jika tekanan hemoglobin turun menyebabkan sesak nafas sampai meyebabkan sesak nafas sampai menyebabkan kematian. Sehingga hemoglobin menjadi variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap kematian akibat COVID -19.
Peramalan Jumlah Kasus Tuberkulosis di Rumah Sakit Umum Haji Medan dengan Metode Support Vector Regression-Particle Swarm Optimization Hsb, Sumawiyah; Husein, Ismail; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Menjembatani Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika menuju Pemanfaatan Berkelanju
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i2.3668

Abstract

Tuberculosis is an infectious disease that is the leading cause of poor health and one of the major causes of death around the world, in 2021 north Sumatra ran sixth as the province with the highest Tuberculosis rate after Provinsi Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, Jawa timur, DKI Jakarta, and Banten. This may result from an unhealthy environment, an increase in nutrition events, the appearance of HIV/AIDS. Hence, this study aims to create a forecast model by the method of regression support (SVR) with an optimist Particle Swarm Optimazion (PSO). The initial stage of the study involves analyzing the data of those with tuberculosis that begins by calculating the correlation between data with the underlying factors. Then do the preprocessing to initial data value, selecting the number of features and normalization of data. After the analysis stage, regression calculations are made to compare the value of browsing and actual value using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method of Support Vector Regression (SVR) with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) so that a good fortune-giving result is obtained. The results of this study were obtained from an analysis with a value of MAPE = 35.85.
Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) dalam Hasil Usaha Tani Buah Naga Afrina Sinaga, Serly; Cipta, Hendra; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Integrasi Matematika, Teknologi, dan Budaya dalam Pendidikan dan Aplikasi Terap
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v8i1.4332

Abstract

Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi data deret waktu lebih dari satu variabel yang menggunakan variabel eksogen dalam sistem persamaannya. Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah dengan menggunakan dua variabel endogen dan satu variabel eksogen. Penelitian ini menggunakan data primer dan sekunder. Data primer yaitu data bulanan deret waktu hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil dari tahun 2021 sampai dengan tahun 2022 di Desa Pulo Pitu Marihat Kecamatan Ujung Padang Kabupaten Simalungun serta Data sekunder yaitu curah hujan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memprediksikan hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil di Desa Pulo Pitu Marihat Kecamatan Ujung Padang Kabupaten Simalungun dari januari 2023 sampai dengan Desember 2024. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) yang dapat diterapkan terhadap data hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil adalah Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX (1,1)). Nilai MAPE untuk model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX (1,1)) pada variabel buah naga besar yaitu -22% dan buah naga kecil yaitu -27,6% sehingga ketepatan hasil prediksi model dapat dikatakan baik digunakan.
Application of the Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) Method in Analysing Variables That Influence Drug Abuse in Province North Sumatera Yuda, Muhammad Wira; Widyasari, Rina; Aprilia, Rima
Journal of Technology and Computer Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): February 2025 - Journal of Technology and Computer
Publisher : PT. Technology Laboratories Indonesia (TechnoLabs)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The aim of this research is to classify transmission variables in North Sumatera Province using the Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) method. This method is used to determine which factors are the most dominant that cause people in North Sumatra Province to use drugs. This research began with collecting data on drug users in North Sumatra Province taken from BNN PROVSU. After the data was collected, it was processed again using MS Excel and divided into the 6 most dominant factors in the data that trigger drugs. Then, using the SPSS application, calculate which factors are the most dominant that cause people in North Sumatra to use drugs. Based on research conducted by the author on drug abuse in North Sumatra Province using the CHAID method, conclusions can be drawn as follows: The most dominant factor causing people in North Sumatra Province to use drugs is the educational factor. Of the total values that have been examined using the chi-square method, they are X3 (educational factor) with a value = χ² count (13,018) > χ² Table (9,488). Education Factors of Drug Abuse in North Sumatra Province Associated with the Ratio of Narcotics Users.
Pemodelan Stokhastik dalam Dinamika Perubahan Ukuran Populasi Tanaman yang Terkena Jamur Nurul Qomariyah; Widyasari, Rina; Rakhmawati, Fibri
Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 5 No. 02 (2025): Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika - Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas San Pedro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59632/leibniz.v5i02.527

Abstract

Pertumbuhan populasi tanaman dapat terganggu oleh infeksi jamur yang menyebar secara stokastik, terutama pada tanaman semangka dan melon yang rentan dalam kondisi iklim tidak stabil. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan pendekatan matematis yang mempertimbangkan unsur ketidakpastian untuk memahami dinamika penyebaran penyakit. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan perubahan ukuran populasi tanaman yang terinfeksi jamur menggunakan pendekatan stokastik berbasis model epidemiologi SIR dan SITR. Metode yang digunakan adalah pemodelan stokastik berbasis proses Markov waktu kontinu dengan data primer yang dikumpulkan dari observasi langsung di Desa Paya Itik, Deli Serdang. Model ini memetakan populasi tanaman ke dalam kelompok rentan, terinfeksi, dalam perawatan, dan sembuh, serta menghitung laju infeksi, kesembuhan, dan kematian untuk menentukan stabilitas sistem. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa baik pada tanaman semangka maupun melon, model stokastik menunjukkan kestabilan dengan nilai rasio reproduksi dasar (R?) < 1. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa satu tanaman terinfeksi tidak cukup untuk menyebabkan penyebaran penyakit lebih lanjut, sehingga epidemi tidak terjadi. Penyemprotan disinfektan terbukti menurunkan infeksi dan meningkatkan kesembuhan. Dengan demikian, pemodelan stokastik memberikan gambaran realistis terhadap dinamika populasi tanaman yang terinfeksi jamur dan dapat digunakan sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan dalam pengendalian penyakit tanaman.