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<![CDATA[ANALYSIS OF THE VISIT RATE AT THE IRIAN MARELAN SUPERMARKET DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ]]>
<![CDATA[Kartika , Dinda]]>;
<![CDATA[Lubis, Riri Syafitri]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.44
<![CDATA[Currently our country is experiencing a disaster due to a very dangerous virus that has claimed many lives or commonly referred to as COVID-19. The government had limited the operating hours of public places to prevent the spread of the virus. This has resulted in disruption of economic activities, one of which is the Irian Supermarket & Dept Store. This research was conducted to determine how the level of visits to Irian with the Spearman Rank Correlation method. From the results of the Spearman Rank correlation analysis carried out, the calculated value is 0.307 with a positive sign which indicates a low level of relationship and it is concluded that the level of visits is not influenced by the application of health protocols but is influenced by facilities and sales techniques, This can also be seen in the results of the t-test. The result of count obtained is 3.20 shows that the variable level of visits has a significant correlation with purchasing decisions.]]>
<![CDATA[M/G/1 QUEUE WITH SINGLE WORKING VACATION AND VACATION INTERRUPTION TO THE EXPECTED VALUE OF MANY CUSTOMERSAT BANK MUAMALAT SUKARAMAI SUB-BRANCH OFFICE ]]>
<![CDATA[Susilowati, Rahmi]]>;
<![CDATA[Lubis, Riri Syafitri]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.46
<![CDATA[Queuing occurs because the number of customers who arrive exceeds the service capacity, so customers have to queue to be served. A working vacation is a server serving at a slower speed. The server can return to a busy period with a (vacation interruption) opportunity or continue a vacation with a opportunity, with the single working vacation and vacation interruption method. The objective of this study is to obtain the effect of service rate and the expected value of the number of customers in the system after the departure of one customer and minimize operating costs during the vacation period (pause). The M / G / 1 queue study with Single Working Vacation and Vacation Interruption found that the average arrival rate (?) was 0.069 and the average service rate was 1.5 with the average vacation time (?) was 0, 41 and the average value of the expected number of customers in the system is 0,19 and for operating costs it can also be drunk to -16,38. This means that the queuing system is not efficient, due to the low level of server activity and the expected value of the number of customers in the system is 0 or there are no customers waiting in the system.]]>
<![CDATA[POPULATION PROJECTION AND FACTOR ANALYSIS AFFECTING POPULATION GROWTH IN THE CITY MEDAN USING NON LINEAR TRENDS POLYNOMIC METHOD ]]>
<![CDATA[Pertiwi, Fina Nur]]>;
<![CDATA[Lubis, Riri Syafitri]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.47
<![CDATA[Non-linear trend is a measure of trend that has a model with quadratic equations, cubic and so on. The purpose of this research is to determine the population projection in Medan using a non-linear trend of the polynomial method (parabolic trend / quadratic trend) and to determine the factors that influence population growth in the city of Medan. From the results of data processing using the non-linear trend of the polynomial method, it is obtained that the projected number of population in 2029 will be 2645501 people, with The total male population is 1314713 and the female population is 1330788. When compared with the population in previous years, it can be seen that until 2029 the population in Medan will increase. Based on the research results from the factor analysis, it is known that the factors that are formed from the factor analysis process can be concluded that all the factors formed affect the population growth rate of Medan. The factors formed are birth (fertility), death (mortality) and migration.]]>
<![CDATA[FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF COVID-19 SUFFERERS IN NORTH SUMATRA USING THE AUTOMATIC CLUSTERING FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN METHOD ]]>
<![CDATA[Siregar, Anggi Ramadany]]>;
<![CDATA[Sari, Rina Filia]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.48
<![CDATA[Corona virus is a virus that is currently endemic throughout the world, including in Indonesia, one of which is in North Sumatra Province, because this virus has claimed many victims. North Sumatra Province in positive cases of Covid-19 is ranked 13th out of 34 provinces in Indonesia. The government's anticipation in handling Covid-19 cases is by forecasting the number of positive Covid-19 cases. One of the methods used to forecast Covid-19 sufferers is the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method. The Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is used to resolve the deviation value from a forecasted value, while Automatic Clustering is used to determine the length of the interval by grouping numerical data. Then the error calculation will be carried out using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to determine the level of accuracy of the forecasting model that has been made. The parameter used in this study is the number of Covid-19 sufferers. The results of this study from data on the number of Covid-19 sufferers have a MAPE value of 4.53%. The MAPE value which is less than 10% means that the forecasting of this study has very good criteria. So the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is very good to be applied in forecasting the number of Covid-19 sufferers in North Sumatra Province.]]>
<![CDATA[PREDICT THE PRICE OF CURLY RED CHILI IN NORTH SUMATRA USING THE HOLT WINTERS ADDITIVE METHOD ]]>
<![CDATA[Nurainun, Umi Sarah]]>;
<![CDATA[Dur, Sajaratud]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.49
<![CDATA[Curly red chilies are one of the vegetable commodities that have an effect on national economic growth. North Sumatra is one of the largest red chilli have a problem with price fluctuations which will result in inflanation. Erratic chili prices will have an impact on society and the country. The right policy to avoid negative impact on price fluctuations of North Sumatra’s curly red chilies is to predict it in the future. The purpose of this study was to obtain the result of the prediction of the price of North Sumatra curly red chilies. The results of this analysis can be used in determining the right policy. The method used in this study is the Holt Winters Additive Method, because the Holt Winters Additive Method is a method that can be used for forecasting data that has elements of trend and seasonality. The data used in this study is the average price of North Sumatra curly red chilies per week from January 2020 to February 2021 which is obtained from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center. After testing the price of curly red chilies in North Sumatra, a forecast data plot is obtained which tends to follow the actual data. Then the error rate is measured using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The MAPE results obtained were 10.15% with the best parameters ? = 0.84, ? = 0.09 and ? = 0.83. this means that the Holt Winters Additive method has a good level of accuracy used to predict the price of curly red chilies in North Sumatra Province.]]>
<![CDATA[APPLICATION OF LEAN SIX-SIGMA METHOD AND DEMERIT CHART TO MINIMIZE DEFECTIVE PRODUCT ]]>
<![CDATA[Novia, Ayu]]>;
<![CDATA[Sari, Rina Filia]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.51
<![CDATA[uality control is a form of inspection using certain techniques or methods in decision-making to get the quality standards that have been determined. One type of quality control is using the method of Lean Six Sigma to identify and eliminate waste in activities that are not worth the added value through a continuous increase to reach the level of Six Sigma, then use the demerit control chart as a monitor of the production process. The purpose of the study was to find out how to minimize defects in the 220ml Aqua cup mineral water packaging with the method of Lean Six Sigma and Demerit control chart. With the analysis that has been done, it is known that in the 220ml Aqua Cup product the DPMO value for defects in the 220ml AQUA Cup production process is 22912.83, which is the level of sigma is 3.43 and the process capabilities value is 0.77087 which mean that it still needs a process control for minimizing the product defects.]]>
<![CDATA[IMPLEMENTATION OF SUGENO'S FUZZY LOGIC IN ANALYZING RICE AVAILABILITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AT PERUM BULOG NORTH SUMATRA ]]>
<![CDATA[Pratiwi, Ria Widiya]]>;
<![CDATA[Sari, Rina Filia]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i2.54
<![CDATA[During the Covid-19 Pandemic economic activities in North Sumatra experienced problems because many people had been laid off and lost their jobs which made them worried about reaching the staple of rice. So that the government feels the need to provide rice assistance which is directly channeled through BULOG. With this direct social assistance to the community, it could lead to instability in the rice supply and expenditure stocks until at least February 2021. So it is necessary to analyze the availability of rice at Perum BULOG so that the rice stock supply at Perum BULOG remains stable during the Covid-19 Pandemic. With fuzzy logic, Sugeno will present uncertainty, uncertainty, inaccuracy which will then produce a model of a system that is able to estimate the amount of rice supplies during the Covid-19 pandemic. In January, in the calculation of realization from North Sumatra BULOG, the ending inventory was 42,941 tonnes, while the yield from the Sugeno fuzzy method was 34,833.06 tonnes. This shows that there is a mismatch between the amount of income and expenditure of rice.]]>
<![CDATA[OPTIMIZATION OF SYAHFIRA BAKERY PRODUCTION USING THE TAGUCHI-PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS (PCA) METHOD ]]>
<![CDATA[Dongoran, Rodiani]]>;
<![CDATA[Dur, Sajaratud]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022) ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v3i2.73
<![CDATA[The bread-making business is part of the finished food industry which uses wheat flour as the main raw material for its production process. Bread production has quality characteristics, namely bread surface roughness (Smaller is better) and material processing rate (Larger is better). The combination of the Taguchi-Principal Component Analysis method is used to optimize bread products. The experimental design used is the L9 orthogonal matrix. These quality characteristics are influenced by factors such as the length of time for mixing and kneading, yeast fermentation, roasting time and the dose of water with 3 levels each. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to eliminate correlated correlated responses to an uncorrelated quality index. The results showed that this method can improve the quality of bread production in influencing the surface roughness of the bread and the significant speed of processing the ingredients is the dough time, yeast fermentation, and baking time.]]>
<![CDATA[CLUSTER ANALYSIS TO CLASSIFY THE LEVEL OF SOCIAL WELFARE OF THE COMMUNITY IN DELI SERDANG REGENCY USING FUZZY C-MEAN CLUSTERING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ]]>
<![CDATA[Salasa Riana, Dwi]]>;
<![CDATA[Rakhmawati, Fibri]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pena Cendekia Insani ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v3i2.77
<![CDATA[The Covid-19 pandemic has greatly affected the social welfare of the affected communities in each region. Based on data sources that there are many people who have lost their jobs and lack of income, the government provides a number of assistances to help people affected by covid-19. This study uses data on the number of reciptients of cash social assistance (BST) in Deli Serdang Regency in 2020 which aims to look at the problems of assistance received by the community towards the social welfare of the community. This study uses fuzzy c-mean clustering method because social welfare groupings can be grouped appropriately. Based on the results of fuzzy c-mean clustering analysis will produce three clusters that have different characteristics. The sub-district included in cluster 1, namely Hamparan Perak, Percut Sei Tuan, Sunggal, Tanjung Morawa are sub-districs that have a low level of welfare during the covid-19 pandemic because in these sub-districs the population is more than other sub-districs. Located in Deli Serdang regency.]]>
<![CDATA[APPLICATION OF THE MONTE CARLO METHOD IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF BUDGET PROPOSALS ACCEPTED IN NORTH SUMATRA PROVINCIAL HEALTH OFFICE ]]>
<![CDATA[Harahap, Riska]]>;
<![CDATA[Siahaan, Maharani Putri Adam]]>;
<![CDATA[Widyasari, Rina]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 5 No. 1 (2024) ]]>
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DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v4i1.873
<![CDATA[A budget is a planning tool regarding future expenditure and revenues, generally prepared for one year. The prediction simulation for approved budget proposals is an estimate of the calculation of the approval rate for approved proposals in the following year. This research uses the Monte Carlo method in solving problems. This method can be used in problems with nonlinear boundary conditions, namely prediction limits.the author uses a quantitative descriptive method, which is a form of research that focuses on the facts and characteristics of the research object by combining related variables. This research uses the Monte Carlo method uses random numbers and probability statistics to solve problems.The data used to predict the approved proposal budget is the budget proposal data that is approved each year. The following is one of the approved proposal data, namely the approved budget proposal data from 2021, 2022 and 2023 budget proposals received using the Monte Carlo Method which has been implemented at the North Sumatra Provincial Health Service with the simulation namely with an average percentage in 2022 of 84% and in 2023 by 76%. So with the successful application of the Monte Carlo Method to predict the number of budget proposals received at the North Sumatra Provincial Health Service for 2024 it will provide convenience for the North Sumatra Provincial Health Service to find out what the predicted number of budget .]]>
