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Journal : journal of applied informatics and computing

Stock Price Modelling of Ciputra Development Tbk. (CTRA) Using Fourier Series Ika Purnamasari; Toha Saifudin; Sri Wahyuningsih; M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 10 No. 3 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v10i3.13093

Abstract

Stock price data generally show fluctuating and dynamic patterns, making the forecasting process challenging in time series analysis. In addition, stock forecasting is also related to economic activity and investment development that support economic growth. This study applies the Fourier series model to predict daily stock prices of Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA) during January-December 2025 by considering the Fourier parameter (K). The Fourier series estimator consists of two models, namely a model with trend component and a model without trend component. The data were divided into training and testing sets using an 85:15 ratio. Model selection was performed using Generalized Cross validation (GCV), while model performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that the Fourier series model with a trend component outperformed the model without trend component. The optimal model was obtained at K=20 with a minimum GCV value of 357.7702. The model produced a training MAPE of 1.2804% and RMSE of 14.9427, while the testing MAPE and RMSE were 5.0640% and 53.6083, respectively, indicating good predictive accuracy and generalization performance.
Co-Authors Abdul Aziz Aditya Syarifudin Akbar Aflaha, Nabila Shafa Aini Divayanti Arrofah Aisharezka, Mutiara Aisyah, Arlisya Shafwan Al Hasri, Ilham Maulana Alfi Nur Nitasari Alfredi Yoani Alpandi, Gaos Tipki Ameliatul 'Iffah Ana, Elly Andini Putri Mediani Andreas, Christopher Angga Kusuma Bayu Viargo Angga Kusuma Bayu Viargo Aniq Atiqi Any Tsalasatul Fitriyah Ardi Kurniawan Ardi Kurniawan Ariani, Fildzah Tri Januar Aulia, Niswa Faizah Auliyah, Nina Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Azis, Aurelia Islami Azizah, Khansa Belindha Ayu Ardhani Bryan Given Christiano Ginzel Chaerobby Fakhri Fauzaan Purwoko Dewanti, Maria Setya Dewanty, Sanda Insania Diah Puspita Ningrum Dita Amelia Dita Amelia Dita Amelia, Dita Doni Muhammad Fauzi Dwika Maya Harsanti Easyfa Wieldyanisa, Ezha Elly Pusporani Erfiana Erfiana Fachriza Yosa Pratama Faiza, Atikah Fajrina, Sofia Falasifah, Sabrina Fatmawati Fatmawati Fauziah, Nathania Fa’iqotus Zuqna Dwi Syauqie Felix Reba Fina Insyiroh Firmansyah, Mochamad FIRMANSYAH, MOCHAMMAD Fitriana Nur Afifa Fitriani, Mubadi'ul Fortunata, Regina Gaos Tipki Alpandi Gaos Tipki Alpandi Hardiansyah, Fernanda Rizky Hasyim, Maylita Herdianto, Muhammad Hendra Ika Purnamasari Ilma Amira Rahmayanti Indrasta, Irma Ayu Insania Dewanty, Sanda Isryad Yoga Adyatma Johanna Tania Victory Jovansha Ariyawan Khairian, Farhan Aldan Kholidiyah, Azizatul Leni Sartika Panjaitan Lensa Rosdiana Safitri M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Maelcardino Christopher Justin Mahadesyawardani, Arinda Maharani, Prima Makhbubah, Karina Rubita Marisa Rifada Marpaung, Josua Ronaldo Davico Marshanda Aprilia Marwanda, Nadia Dwi Mediani, Andini Putri Mia Khoirunnisa Mochamad Firmansyah Mochamad Rasyid Aditya Putra Mohammad Noufal Ubadah Muhammad Rosyid Ridho Az Zuhro Mutiara Aisharezka Nabila Nurdin Nahar, Muhammad Hafidzuddin Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siregar Naura, Sheila Sevira Asteriska Novianti, Dita Aris Nugraha, Galuh Cahya Nur Chamidah Nur Chamidah Nur chamnidah Nur Rahmah Miftakhul Jannah Nurrohmah, Zidni 'Ilmatun Panjaitan, Leni Sartika Puspasari, Laili Raaulia Gita Nafsi Rahayu, Rizky Dwi Kurnia Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhanty, Devira Thania Ramadhina, Fidela Sahda Ilona Recylia, Rien Rimuljo Hendradi Risky Wahyuningsih Sa'idah, Andini Sabrina Salsa Oktavia Safitri, Lensa Rosdiana Salma Bethari Andjani Sumarto Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia Sa’idah Zahrotul Jannah Sediono, Sediono Sentosa, Martha Ayu Setyawan, Muhammad Daffa Bintang Shalwa Oktavrilia Kusuma Siagian, Kimberly Maserati Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Sri Wahyuningsih Sugha Faiz Al Maula Suliyanto Suliyanto Suliyanto Syaugi Sungkar, Salman Teguh Susanto Teguh Susanto Tiani Wahyu Utami Titania Faisha Purnama Trisa, Nadya Lovita Hana Valida, Hanny Verina Tita Nabila Victory, Johanna Tania VITA FIBRIYANI Wahyuli, Diana Widyawati, Ayu Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa Wulandari, Indana Zulfa Yan Dwi