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Determining Tomato Crop Agricultural Insurance Premium for COVID-19 Pandemic Setyawan, Binar Aulia; Purnaba, I Gusti Putu; Budiarti, Retno
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 8, No 2 (2023): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v8i2.22782

Abstract

One type of insurance known as parametric insurance has an agreement for predetermined events made at the beginning of the contract between the insurer (insurance firm) and the insured (farmer). When the causative event occurs, the provision applies that insurer must pay insured with some amount of money (damage compensation). Ozaki has formulated parametric method of premium rates for agricultural insurance build upon yields in specific area. Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture uses this method to ensure that farmers can re-plant crops in following planting season if a crop failure occurs. However, the COVID-19 pandemic's losses were not covered by this method. Given this, we would like to develop agricultural insurance models for tomato crops which figure out COVID-19 pandemic. For make it easier to see the price of tomato commodity due to impact of COVID-19 pandemic, in this research we will take a case study on agriculture managed by PT Mitra Tani Parahyangan. This company is engaged in the horeca business, so it has been greatly affected by the quarantine policy. The results of this study are suggestions for policy makers in anticipation if a pandemic occurs again, it help farmers and Indonesia’s food availability will be maintained.
Bias Correction of Lake Toba Rainfall Data Using Quantile Delta Mapping Rafhida, Syukri Arif; Nurdiati, Sri; Budiarti, Retno; Najib, Mohamad Khoirun
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 9, No 2 (2024): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v9i2.29124

Abstract

Lake Toba, located in North Sumatra, is the largest tectonic and volcanic lake in Indonesia. Lake Toba has an equatorial climate characterized by abundant rainfall throughout the year. High rainfall, coupled with annual increases due to climate change, results in a vulnerability to the unpredictable extreme weather, causing harm to the surrounding communities. Consequently, a rainfall prediction model is needed to anticipate the impacts of such extreme rainfall. One of the rainfall prediction models used is ERA5-Land. However, this prediction model has biases that can be avoided. A method that can be used is the statistical bias correction using the quantile delta mappings (QDM) by correcting ERA5-Land model data against BMKG observation data. The QDM method used in this study employs two types of methods: monthly and full distribution. The results shows that both methods can improve biases at Silaen, Laguboti, and Doloksanggul stations, as well as improve the model during the equatorial dry seasons in May, June, July, and August. However, the first method improves the model distribution more in Silaen and Laguboti, while the second method improves the model distribution more in Doloksanggul.
Parametric Survival Model on IPB University’s Graduation Data Nashiruddin, Muhammad Abdurrasyid; Sumarno, Hadi; Budiarti, Retno
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 7, No 2 (2023): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v7i2.12681

Abstract

Graduation is one of the assessment criteria in the college accreditation process. Students who graduate on time will assist in the assessment of college accreditation. This study aims to determine the distribution that best fits student graduation data and determine the best model to analyze the factors that determine student graduation from IPB University. This study presents some parametric models in survival analysis, specifically, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model and the proportional hazard (PH) model. The objective of this research is to compare the performance of PH model and the AFT models in analyzing the significant factors affecting the student graduation at the IPB University. Based on the study's results, the distribution according to student graduation data is the Burr XII distribution, and the best model using the AIC criteria is the PH Burr XII model. The factors that influence the graduation of IPB University students are gender, faculty, GPA, regional origin, and school status. 
Effects of grey mangrove leaf extract (Avicennia marina) on the growth of Staphylococcus aureus Priambodo, Bima; Budiarti, Retno; Rahadianto, Rahadianto; Nefertiti, Eva
JURNAL BIOSAINS Vol. 10 No. 2 (2024): JBIO : JURNAL BIOSAINS (THE JOURNAL OF BIOSCIENCES)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/jbio.v10i2.43222

Abstract

The emergence and spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in recent decades complicates the antibiotic therapy. The grey mangrove (Avicennia marina) has flavonoid, terpenoid, saponin, phenolic, tannin, and alkaloid chemical compounds that have antimicrobial activity, thus potentially inhibiting Staphylococcus aureus. This study aims to examine the effects of the grey mangrove (Avicennia marina) leaf extracts on the growth of Staphylococcus aureus. This research uses laboratory experimental design with disc diffusion method to test the inhibition of Staphylococcus aureus bacteria growth in Mueller-Hinton medium. There were 6 treatment groups, namely negative control of 0.2% DMSO,  positive control of amoxicillin 30 µg, Avicennia marina leaf extract at concentration of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. The results of this research showed that Avicennia marina leaf extract produces inhibition zone of 7.06 mm, 8.51 mm, 10.07 mm, 13.29 mm at concentration of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. Meanwhile, positive control produces inhibiton zone of 23.65 mm, and negative control has no inhibition zone. The statistical tests using one-way ANOVA resulted in a significance value of less than 0.05 (p<α). The conclusion of this study showed that the grey mangrove (Avicennia marina) leaf extract at 100% concentration is the most effective treatment group in inhibiting the growth of Staphylococcus aureus, although the inhibition was not much better when compared to the inhibition of the positive control group.
Pengaruh Inflasi terhadap Strategi Optimal Investasi dan Konsumsi dengan Model Stokastik Dara Irsalina; Retno Budiarti; I Gusti Putu Purnaba
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 19 Nomor 1 Edisi Me
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate an optimal investment-consumption strategy under inflation rate with interest rate is described by Cox-Ingersol-Ross (CIR) model and volatility of the stock price is defined by Heston’s volatility model. A dynamic programming principle is used to obtain a Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation for the value function and choose a power utility function as utility function. The explicit solution of optimal investment and consumption are acquired with using separate variable and approach variable technique. The parameter’s values are approached by Euler-Maruyama method and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. Assumed that the portfolio of the investor contains a risk-free asset and a risk asset. Monthly historical data of TLK stock is used as risk asset and monthly historical data of BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate (BI7DRR) is used as risk-free asset, we obtain that the proportion of investment in stock is directly proportional to return of stock and the inflation rate does not have an impact on proportion investment in the stock. Meanwhile the optimal consumption of wealth is directly proportional to investor’s wealth and inversely proportional with inflation rate, which is the investor should consume less money of his wealth when the inflation rate increases.
Dependency of The Exchange Rate with The Volume of Indonesian Aluminum Exports Using Copula Kurniadi Rizki; Retno Budiarti; I Gusti Putu Purnaba
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.32517

Abstract

The downstreaming of bauxite, which is one of the raw materials for aluminum, indicates that the Indonesian government is serious about managing these mining resources. As one of the leading commodities, aluminum export activities not only affect investment but also strengthen the IDR-USD exchange rate. The increasing circulation of the rupiah has a positive impact on Indonesia in the international trade market. This study models the dependence between the IDR-USD exchange rate and Indonesia's aluminum export volume using copula. Copula doesn’t require the assumption of data normality, so it is very good for measuring the dependence of economic data that is often not normally distributed. The results of the study concluded that there is a positive correlation between the two variables, although it is not significant and is very small. This positive correlation indicates that the rupiah will strengthen along with the increasing volume of Indonesia's aluminum exports.
Evaluation of Best-Fit Probability Distribution Models for Monthly Rainfall in the Lake Toba Region Syukri Arif Rafhida; Sri Nurdiati; Retno Budiarti; Mohamad Khoirun Najib
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 9, No 2 (2025): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v9i2.25688

Abstract

Understanding rainfall's statistical distribution is crucial for effective water resource management, disaster mitigation, and climate adaptation in tropical regions. This study identifies the best-fit probability distributions for monthly rainfall in the Lake Toba region, Indonesia, based on long-term data from 34 rain gauge stations. Ten commonly used probability distributions were evaluated, with parameters estimated via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test was applied to assess model goodness-of-fit at each station and month. Results indicate that the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gamma, and Weibull distributions consistently provide the best fit for most stations and regencies, while Exponential and Inverse Gaussian distributions perform poorly. Spatial analysis reveals notable variation in best-fit models among regencies, emphasizing the influence of local topography and microclimate. These results highlight the need to select flexible probability models for hydrological planning and climate risk assessment in complex tropical regions. The findings provide valuable references for rainfall modeling and bias correction elsewhere.
Mathematical Model of Joint Life Term Insurance Premiums under Inflation, Interest Rate, and Dependent Mortality Ine Febrianti Habel; I Gusti Putu Purnaba; Retno Budiarti
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 2 (2026): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i2.35690

Abstract

Multilife insurance refers to a contract that covers two or more lives simultaneously, with joint life insurance representing a key form in which the benefit is paid upon the first death among the insured individuals. The lifetimes of insured individuals are typically not independent, as they may be influenced by shared environmental, health, or behavioral factors, leading to mortality dependence. Inflation and interest rates also play critical roles in determining the present value of benefits and premiums. However, most previous studies have examined either mortality dependence or macroeconomic effects in isolation. This study aims to develop a comprehensive mathematical model for determining joint life term insurance premiums that simultaneously incorporates mortality dependence through the Gumbel copula and interest rate and inflation through the Fisher equation. The model integrates demographic and economic risk components within a unified actuarial valuation framework, providing a more realistic representation of premium dynamics under varying financial conditions. Simulation results indicate that premiums incorporating inflation are consistently higher than those without inflation, whereas higher nominal interest rates result in lower premium levels. These findings reflect the theoretical relationship between inflation, real interest rates, and the time value of money. The study further introduces an elasticity-based analysis that quantifies the sensitivity of premiums to changes in inflation and interest rates, demonstrating nonlinear yet economically meaningful responses across different age structures of insured spouses. The results highlight the importance of jointly modeling mortality dependence and economic variables to enhance pricing accuracy and fairness in life insurance. The proposed model offers practical relevance for actuaries in premium determination, assists insurers in risk management and product design, and supports the development of resilient pricing strategies under inflationary and interest.