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Journal : Jurnal ULTIMATICS

Application Of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt’s Method For Poverty Line Forecasting (Study Case: East Kalimantan Province) Ariantika Putri Maharani; Akhmad Irsyad; Muhammad Rivani Ibrahim
ULTIMATICS Vol 17 No 2 (2025): Ultimatics : Jurnal Teknik Informatika
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, Universitas Multimedia Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31937/ti.v17i2.4349

Abstract

Poverty is a multidimensional problem that remains a challenge in Indonesia. The poverty line is used as an indicator to determine whether someone is poor based on the average expenditure per capita per month. In East Kalimantan Province, the poverty line has increased from Rp796,193 in 2023 to Rp853,997 in 2024. This study aims to forecast the poverty line for the next ten periods using Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method. This method was chosen because the historical data shows an increasing trend from 2011 to 2024. The forecasting results show that this method is effective with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 4.56%, and optimal parameters α = 0.98 and β = 0.01. The findings are expected to serve as a reference in decision-making regarding poverty alleviation policies in the future.
Co-Authors -, Irvan Apdila Agnestia Agus Soepriyadi Ahmad Yunus Allo, Adriati Manuk Alviana, Kurnia Andi Yolanda Sagita Anton Prafanto Aprilia, Trisna Ariantika Putri Maharani Arif, Afdinal Aris Puji Widodo Avivah, Nur Awang, Kevin Aditya Agusto Azahra Zardan, Ririn Yuliani Azizah, Nur Shafa Bambang Nur Basuki Basuki, Nur Bambang Bernikusti Mentik, Sulpisius Deddy Kurniawan Dedy Mirwansyah Dengen , Helen Amalia Dengen, Helen Amalia Dyna Marisa Khairina Efrata Madao, O’neal Enjellita, Rissa Erniati Erniati Fajar, Rasyid Maulana Fariz Aisyar Dafin, Ahmad Ferryza Nurwahyu Ginting, Stephanie Elfriede Gunawan, Suwardi Hadianto , Mohammed Noeno Hario, Jati Setiyadi Hatta, Heliza Rahmania Haviluddin Haviluddin Holis Ridwanto Irsyad, Akhmad Islamiyah Islamiyah, Islamiyah Jundillah , Muhammad Labib Jundillah, Muhammad Labib Karinda , Siti Solikah Yosi Kurniawan, Deddy Kusworo Adi Linda Nuryanti Lumbantobing, Lisweni Marisa Khairina, Dyna Masa, Amin Padmo Azam Maurit Sipayung Mifthahuddin, Mifthahuddin Mohammad Ibnu, Praditya Muhammad Bambang Muhammad Dwi Refansyah Muhammad Ibadurrahman Arrasyid, Supriyanto Muhammad Labib Jundillah Muhammad, Zulfariansyah Mustafid Mustafid Nuritha, Ifrina Nurul Indriani Prasetyo, Afrila Zahra Putut Pamilih Widagdo Putut Pamilih Widagdo, Putut Pamilih Ramadhan , Riendra Zanneti Rapiq, Rayhan Abdilah Rayhan Abdilah Rapiq Refansyah, Muhammad Dwi Rika Ismayanti Rinto Rinto Rizawanti, Riftika Ruswantomo, Ruswantomo Saputra, Fachi Aditia Saragi , Bertha Joy Rodo Septya Maharani, Septya Setyadi, Hario Jati Shafa Nur Alifia Sherina Aulia Miranda Sidabutar, Erni Veronica Soepriyadi, Agus Sogen, Valentina Febrizah Peni Supriyanto, Muhammad Ibadurrahman Arrasyid Surachkaryadi, Angelina Sutikno Sutikno Syahria Syilla Arviani P Widagdo , Putut Pamilih Wulansari, Tina Tri Yahya, Fiqri Khaidar Yeva Bintan Yodisya, Raihan Zainal Arifin Zulfariansyah, Muhammad Zulqiyah, Aqiyah