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All Journal JPMS (Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Sains) dCartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Gaussian CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Didaktik Matematika Jurnal Karya Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Daya Matematis PYTHAGORAS: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika AKSIOMA HISTOGRAM: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika AL ISHLAH Jurnal Pendidikan JURNAL PENDIDIKAN GLASSER BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jambura Journal of Mathematics Laplace : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Dikmas: Jurnal Pendidikan Masyarakat dan Pengabdian MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) d'Cartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi
Ismail Djakaria
Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

 1 
PENERAPAN METODE EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE PADA PERAMALAN PENGGUNAAN AIR DI PDAM KOTA GORONTALO WA SALMI; ISMAIL DJAKARIA; RESMAWAN RESMAWAN
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 1, No 2 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v1i2.7152

Abstract

Facing the dry season, it is probable that there is a lack of water or excess distribution at one point during distribution to every house that uses PDAM water every day. This will result in community instability in using water and inaccurate users. Therefore, forecasting of the amount of water used in PDAM Kota Gorontalo for the next period. The method used to forecast is the Exponential Moving Average method. Criteria in determining the best method is based on the value of Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. After forecasting each smoothing constant is compared, the best model. in predicting the amount of water use in PDAM Kota Gorontalo is an Exponential Moving Average with a smoothing constant of 0.15 because it has the smallest MAD and MAPE values.
PENDEKATAN MODEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) UNTUK MERAMALKAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI PROVINSI GORONTALO HARIYATI H. USMAN; ISMAIL DJAKARIA; MUHAMMAD REZKY FRIESTA PAYU
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 1, No 1 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v1i1.5408

Abstract

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a simultaneous equation modeling used to construct forecasting systems from interrelated time-series data. This study intends to predict factors that significantly influence inflation in the province of Gorontalo. Moreover, the data used in this study involved inflation data and factors that influence inflation every month in the province in the period of January 2009 - December 2018. The results of inflation forecasting in Gorontalo in 2019 show that at the beginning of 2019, the inflation was considered to be very low at around -0.48% to -0.40%. However, the inflation surged in March with -0.25% (the highest inflation rate). The percentage decreased to -0.30% and -0.33% in April and May. After the decline in April and May, in the middle of the year (June) inflation returned to -0.31% and did not experience a significant change until the end of the year, which was still in the range of -0.32%. The accuracy of the prediction results seen in the MAPE value from out sample data of variables Y1 to Y8 is on the average below 10%, indicating that VAR is a significant forecasting model.
PENERAPAN MODEL SPASIAL DURBIN DENGAN UJI LANJUTAN LOCAL INDICATOR OF SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION UNTUK MELIHAT PENYEBARAN STUNTING DI KABUPATEN BONE BOLANGO LISA SYAHRIA HASIRU; ISMAIL DJAKARIA; ISRAN K HASAN
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 3, No 1 (2022): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i1.13083

Abstract

One of the spatial regression analysis used is the spatial durbin model (SDM). This model can be applied to obtain the relationship between X and Y variables and their spatial effects. This research was continued by testing the local spatial autocorrelation, namely the local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) which aims to provide information on the pattern of spatial relationships of each observation area in Bone Bolango regency. Stunting cases in Gorontalo province, especially in Bone Bolango regency, are in a status that needs to be addressed immediately due to the prevalence rate in Bone Bolango regency in 2019 above 20% based on the WHO standard. The results showed that the factors that significantly affected stunting in 2019 in Bone Bolango regency were exclusive breastfeeding, the  proper sanitation and poverty. Meanwhile, based on the spatial effect, the factors that significantly affected stunting in 2019 in Bone Bolango regency were the percentage of exclusive breastfeeding, the percentage of LBW, the number of children with CBI and poverty. Based on result from the LISA, the observation areas of stunting cases showed that the percentage of exclusive breastfeeding, the number of children with CBI and povertu had a spatial autocorrelation or forming a grouping on the distribution of the stunting cases, the number of children with IDL and poverty, there are sub-districts that have spatial autocorrelation.
PERBANDINGAN METODE LIFE TABLE DAN METODE KAPLAN MEIER PADA ANALISIS SURVIVAL PENDERITA STROKE DI RSUD ALOEI SABOE KOTA GORONTALO PADA AGUSTUS SAMPAI DENGAN DESEMBER 2019 DEWI ZULYANI POMALINGO; ISMAIL DJAKARIA; BOBY RANTOW PAYU
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 3, No 1 (2022): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i1.14178

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi fungsi survival pasien penderita stroke di RSUD Aloei Saboe kota Gorontalo bulan Agustus sampai dengan Desember 2019 menggunakan metode life table dan Kaplan Meier. Hasil estimasi keduanya dibandingkan dengan estimasi terbaik adalah yang menghasilkan nilai standar error terkecil. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan probabilitas survival pasien menggunakan estimasi life table adalah sebesar 0,8591 dan Kaplan Meier sebesar 0,8628. Berdasarkan perbandingan nilai standar error, dapat disimpulkan bahwa pada awal waktu survival, estimasi life table dan Kaplan Meier sama baiknya untuk menganalisis survival pasien. Namun untuk waktu survival yang semakin besar, estimasi Kaplan Meier menghasilkan nilai standar error yang lebih kecil dibandingkan estimasi life table.
Implementasi Regresi Logistik Biner Stratifikasi Pada Pemodelan Stunting Untuk Anak Balita Di Kabupaten Gorontalo Setia Ningsih; Muhammad Rifai Madonsa; Sri Lestari Mahmud; Ismail Djakaria; Salmun K Nasib
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 5, No 1 (2024): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v5i1.19793

Abstract

Stunting is a condition where toddlers fail to grow due to chronic malnutrition in the first 1000 days of life (HPK). Therefore, stunting cases in Gorontalo Province, especially in Gorontalo Regency, are among the cases that need to be addressed as soon as possible. The data used is secondary data from each Puskesmas in Gorontalo Regency, to see the factors that have a significant effect on the incidence of stunting in Gorontalo Regency in urban and rural areas using the stratified binary logistic regression method. In this study, the independent variables used were Gender, Birth Weight, Birth Height, Toddler Age and Nutritional Status. The test results using the stratified binary logistic regression method show that for urban strata there are 3 significant variables, namely Birth Weight, Age of Toddlers and Nutritional Status, then for rural strata there are 2 significant variables, namely Age of Toddlers and Nutritional Status. Wald test results show that there are differences between urban and rural areas.
Co-Authors Agustina, Melisa Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Alamri, Fahima Amalia Tatu Armayani Arsal Armin Haluti Arwildayanto, Arwildayanto Asriadi Asriadi Boby Rantow Payu Caicy Magelo Demas Novaleda Abdul Karim Dewi Rahmawati Isa Dewi Rahmawaty Isa DEWI ZULYANI POMALINGO Djibran, Fahrudin Djihad Wungguli Evi Hulukati Fenly B Mohamad Fitra Reza Dj Wares Franky Alfrits Oroh Gaib, Muhammad Bachtiar Hamza B Uno HARIYATI H. USMAN Harun, Trieke Nurfadilah Haryati Octaviani Bempah Hasan, Irsan K. Hasan, Riyanto Hasan, Salmiaty Hendra Andrianto Yusuf Herlina Jusuf Isran K Hasan Iyohu, Lisa Rianti Jenny Patricia Ayu Kai K. Hasan, Isran Karmila Mokoginta Kartin Usman Kasim, Miranti H. La Ode Nashar Ladjali, Sri Indriani Lailany Yahya LISA SYAHRIA HASIRU Mahajani, Roy Mahmud, Sri Lestari Majid Majid Majid, Majid Mentari Rizki Sawitri Pilomonu Modeong, Fakhira Mohamad Rivaldi Moha Muhammad Rezky F. Payu Muhammad Rifai Madonsa Ningsih, Setia Ningsih, Setia NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Nosva Adam Yunus Novianty Djapri Nurhayati Abbas Nurjana Namko Ladjali Nursiya Bito Pakaya, Debyyansa Paputungan, Arsiullahnur R. Perry Zakaria Rahmi Moh. Amin Resmawan Resmawan Safrudin Ismail Salmun K. Nasib Silvani Yunus siswanto, Navira Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sri Endang Saleh Sri Haryatmi Kartiko Sri Lestari Mahmud Suhardiman Darson Tamu Sumarno Ismail suryo Guritno Swasti Maharani Syafrudin Katili Syamsu Qomar Badu Ukhti Nurfajriah Sasmita Ijonu Ulopo, Asrul S WA SALMI WD Rifqah Amalliah Ndangi Yamin Ismail Yusuf, Hendra Andrianto Zulkifli Alamtaha