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Journal : Jurnal Informatika Progres

PREDIKSI PEMAKAIAN AIR BULANAN DI PDAM KECAMATAN TAMALATE MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) Syarifuddin, Nur Annisa; Wahyuni, Titin; Faisal, Muhammad; Syafaat, Muhammad; Syamsuri, Andi Makbul; AM Hayat, Muhyiddin; Anas, Andi Lukman
PROGRESS Vol 17 No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : P3M STMIK Profesional Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56708/progres.v17i2.471

Abstract

Water consumption forecasting is a crucial aspect of efficient water resource management, particularly in urban areas with increasing demand. This study aims to predict the monthly water usage volume at the PDAM of Tamalate District using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The dataset consists of historical water usage data from January 2022 to December 2024, totaling 36 monthly observations. The analysis process includes stationarity testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, model parameter identification through ACF and PACF plots, and performance evaluation using MAE, RMSE, and MAPE metrics. The results show that the best-performing model is ARIMA, which demonstrates high prediction accuracy, with a MAE of 26,049.80 m³, RMSE of 37,459.00 m³, and MAPE of 4.12%. This model is capable of generating predictions close to actual values and can be relied upon as a basis for PDAM’s water distribution planning. It is expected that this research will contribute to data-driven decision-making and support digital transformation in the public service sector.
Co-Authors A.MUHAMMAD SYAFAR Adi Malik Muhammad Mutsuhito Adrianingsih, Rizka Agustiawal Agustiawal Agustin Dwi Syalfina Ahmad Faisal Ahmad Risal Aiman , Ailul Alfina Aisatus Saadah Amir Ali Anang Sulistyo Anas, Andi Lukman Anas, Lukman ANDI AGUNG DWI ARYA BULU Andi Yusri ardi24, ardiansyah_01 Arvianda Asep Indra Syahyadi Aswad, Muh. Akhwan Adam Baba, Haedir Bakti, Riski Yusliana Bakti, Rizki Yusliana Bambang Nudji Cantika Aprilia Santi Chatarina Umbul Wahyuni Cholifah . Cholifah, Cholifah Christine Christine Dewi, Syamrilla Djalil, Sony Achmad Fachrim Irhamma Rahman Fachrim Irhamna Rachman Fachrim Irhamnah Rachman Fahrim Irhamna Rahman Firman Firman Haidul, Haidul Halisah Duli, St Nur Haruna, Hanjas Hayat, Muhyiddin A M Indriani, Lis Irhamna Rahman, Fachrim Kamal, Safutri Kazman Riyadi khairat, arikal Krisnita Dwi Jayanti La Ode Taufik Ismail Lukman LUKMAN ANAS Lukman Anas Lukman Lukman Masyfufah, Lilis Maulia, Rizky Maylina Surya Wirawati Pribadi Muh. Akhwan Adam Aswad Muhadi, Muhadi Muhammad Faisal Muhammad Faisal Muhyiddin AM Hayat Mujadilah, Siti Muslimah, Nurul Aulia Nadhila Listiawan Nandy Rizaldy Najib Natsir, Fitra M. Nisha, Khairun Nova Mellania Novianti, Siti Nur Alam Rachman, Fachrim Irhamnah Rahman, Fahrim Irhamna RAHMANIA Rahmania Ramadhan S, Fahmi Reski Awalia Retnowati Prihandini Ridwang Ridwang Ridwang Ridwang Ridwang, Ridwang Rinaldy, Muh S. Kuba, Muhammad Syafa'at Salsabila, Damai Arsila Shafira Trisnanda Fatimatus Zahra Sri Hastati SULASTRI Sutha, Diah Wijayanti Syamsuri, Andi Makbul Syarifuddin, Nur Annisa TANTRI INDRABULAN Uddin , Ardiansyah Umi Khoirun Nisak Wahyuni, Titin Wibawa. Ar, Arya xss, aa xx