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Peramalan Tingkat Golput Pada Pilpres Indonesia Th 2024 dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing dan Moving Average Hariadi, Wigid; Sulantari, Sulantari; Sulisawati, Dwi Noviani; Anas, Aswar; Putra, Eric Dwi
ESTIMATOR : Journal of Applied Statistics, Mathematics, and Data Science Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Universitas PGRI Argopuro Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31537/estimator.v1i2.1525

Abstract

Indonesia akan melaksanakan pemilu pilpres pada tahu 2024 mendatang. Dimana pada tahun tersbebut masyarakat Indonesia akan menggunakan hak pilihnya dalam memilih Presiden dan Wakil Presiden secara langsung. Namun, ada kekhawatiran yang dialami oleh Pemerintah maupun KPU, yakni tingkat golput yang cukup tinggi. Golput adalah sikap untuk tidak mengunakan hak pilih dalam pemilu. Oleh karena itu, penting untuk melakukan peramalan data tingkat golput masyarakat. Hal ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui prediksi tingkat golput pada pemilu pilpres tahun 2024. Dengan harapan, bagi pihak terkait agar dapat menentukan kebijakan yang terbaik dalam mengatasi angka golput yang cukup tinggi, yakni mencapai 30% pada tahun 2014, dan 18.03% pada tahun 2019. Dalam peramalan data ini, akan digunakan 2 metode, yakni metode exponential smoothing dan metode moving average. Dari kedua metode tersebut, diperoleh hasil bahwa metode exponential smoothing lebih baik dibandingkan metode moving average dalam meramalkan tingkat golput pada pemilu pilpres tahun 2024 mendatang. Dimana model yang diperoleh adalah model single exponential smoothing (? = 0.9). Model ini memberikan nilai MSE sebesar 34.24, MAE sebesar 3.92, dan MAPE sebesar 35.76. Dengan peramalan tingkat golput pada pemilu pilpres tahun 2024 adalah sebesar 19.20%.
Pengaruh Layanan Bimbingan Kelompok dengan Teknik Self Management Terhadap Peningkatan Kedisiplinan Siswa Kelas IX SMPN Sukorambi Jember Al Adawiyah, Roviqoh; Anas, Aswar; Ulwiyah, Imaratul; Kurniawan, Moh. Usman
PANDALUNGAN : Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan, Bimbingan, Konseling dan Multikultural Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): Terbitan ke 3
Publisher : Prodi Bimbingan dan Konseling, FKIP, UNIPAR JEMBER

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31537/pandalungan.v2i1.1634

Abstract

Penelitian ini membahas tentang pengaruh layanan bimbingan kelompok dengan teknik self management terhadap peningkatan kedisiplinan siswa kelas IX SMPN 01 Sukorambi Jember. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif. Populasi adalah seluruh siswa kelas IX di SMPN 01 Sukorambi Jember dengan sampel sebanyak 8 siswa. Metode pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah wawancara, observasi dan kuesioner. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalah Uji Wilcoxon Match Pairs Test. Desain yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah one group pr-etset post-test. Hasil penelitian adalah: Terdapat pengaruh layanan bimbingan kelompok dengan teknik self management terhadap peningkatan kedisilinan siswa kelas IX SMPN 01 Sukorambi Jember. Hal ini dibuktikan setelah pemberian treatment dengan teknik self management terdapat hasil perhitungan skor rata-rata pada saat pre-test dan post-test mengalami peningkatan terhadap kedisiplinan siswa. Pada pre-test diperoleh skor rata-rata 46,2 % dan pada post-test diperoleh skor rata-rata 63 % sehingga didapatkan selisih antara skor pre-test dan post-test sebesar 57,5 %. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian uji wilcoxon diperoleh nilai Z sebesar - 2,527 dengan simpotik signifikansi untuk uji dua arah sebesar 0,012. Dari hasil pengujian di atas, diketahui nilai Asymp. Sig (2-tailed) sebesar 0,012, nilai tersebut lebih kecil dari 0,25 maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa Ha diterima yang artinya ada perbedaan skor antara rata-rata skor angket pre-test dan post-test. Jadi bimbingan kelompok dengan teknik self management berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan kedisiplinan siswa kelas IX SMPN Sukorambi Jember.
Pengaruh Teknik Self Instruction terhadap Kejenuhan Belajar Siswa di Smpit Al-Ghozali Jember Munna, Nova Nailal; Anas, Aswar; Ulwiyah, Imaratul
PANDALUNGAN : Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan, Bimbingan, Konseling dan Multikultural Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): Terbitan ke - 4
Publisher : Prodi Bimbingan dan Konseling, FKIP, UNIPAR JEMBER

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31537/pandalungan.v2i2.1850

Abstract

Penelitian ini membahas tentang pengaruh teknik self instruction terhadap kejenuhan belajar siswa di SMPIT Al-Ghozali Jember. Pendekatan ini adalah pendekatan kuantitatif dengan jenis true-experimental design dengan tipe pretest-posttest control groub design. Populasi adalah siswa kelas VIII di SMPIT Al-Ghozali Jember berjumlah 49 siswa. Metodologi memperoleh data melalui wawancara, kuesioner, dan observasi. Sebelum disebarkan angket diuji validasi dan reliabilitas. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalah Uji Wilcoxon Match Pairs Test. Hasil penelitian adalah terdapat pengaruh teknik self instruction terhadap kejenuhan belajar siswa di SMPIT Al-Ghozali Jember. Hal ini dibuktikan hasil pretest dan posttest bahwa setelah pemberian treatment dengan teknik self instruction, siswa mengalami penurunan kejenuhan belajar. Hasil pretest kelompok eksperimen menunjukkan rata-rata skor 188,7 sedangkan hasil skor posttest menunjukkan rata-rata skor 144,8 dengan selisih 42,4. Perubahan tersebut menunjukkan kejenuhan belajar yang awalnya tinggi menjadi sedang setelah diberikannya treatment dengan teknik self instruction. Adapun besaran Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) ialah 0,018 < 0,025. Artinya terdapat perbedaan secara signifikan pada tingkat kejenuhan belajar diantara pretest dan posttest, sehingga hipotesis diterima, Kesimpulannya bahwa penggunaan teknik self instruction ada pengaruh terhadap kejenuhan belajar di SMPIT Al-Ghozali Jember.
Analysis Of Student Learning Difficulties In Digital Literacy-Based Learning On Social Arithmetic Material Utari, Yuli Putri; Panglipur, Indah Rahayu; Anas, Aswar
Journal of Education and Learning Mathematics Research (JELMaR) Vol 4 No 2 (2023): November 2023
Publisher : Department of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Wisnuwardhana University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37303/jelmar.v4i2.122

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and find out the Analysis of Student Learning Difficulties in Digital Literacy-Based Learning on Social Arithmetic Material. The problems in this study are how student learning difficulties in digital literacy-based learning in Social Arithmetic material and what factors influence student learning difficulties in digital literacy-based learning in Social Arithmetic material. The research method used is descriptive qualitative. Data collection techniques in this study through observation, interviews, tests and documentation. The level of student learning difficulties in digital literacy-based learning on social arithmetic material at SMP Negeri 2 Sukowono is in the high category, namely 27 students with a percentage of 50%.
Exploring Ethnomathematics on The Batik Patterns of Jember In Mathematics Concept Rizqoh, Zidna; Anas, Aswar; Putra, Eric Dwi
Journal of Education and Learning Mathematics Research (JELMaR) Vol 5 No 1 (2024): Mei 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Wisnuwardhana University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37303/jelmar.v5i1.137

Abstract

This study aims to identify and describe mathematical concepts and describe the results of ethnomathematics exploration contained in Jember batik motifs. The type of research used in this study is qualitative research with an ethnographic approach. The research instruments used were observation, tests, and interviews with batik artisans. The results of this study indicate that the combination of coffee bean and tobacco leaf motifs has applied mathematical concepts of geometry. In the motif of coffee beans and tobacco leaves from the Nhora Pangetu hand-written batik production house, there are mathematical concepts of curves, points, circles, and the concept of dilation. The motif of coffee beans and tobacco leaves from the Gangsar Ngaidin batik production house contains mathematical concepts of reflection (mirroring), congruence, and flat shapes of circles, triangles, and rhombuses.
Analysis of Students' Creativity In Solving Numeracy Literacy Problems on Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) Material On Lines And Angles Yana, Siti Ida; Panglipur, Indah Rahayu; Anas, Aswar
Journal of Education and Learning Mathematics Research (JELMaR) Vol 5 No 2 (2024): November 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Wisnuwardhana University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37303/jelmar.v5i2.156

Abstract

The aim of this research is to determine students' creativity in solving numeracy literacy problems on Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) questions on lines and angles. The type of research used is descriptive research. The approach used in this research is a qualitative approach because the research was carried out on systems thinking, namely in the form of an analysis of creativity in solving student problems on Higher Order Thinking Skill (HOTS) questions which will then be processed in depth according to facts obtained in the field or research location. Researchers focus on creativity, ability to solve problems on Higher Order Thinking Skill (HOTS) questions in accordance with student creativity. This research uses various data collection methods, including tests, interviews, and documentation. These three methods are used to collect data and information that helps solve research difficulties by supporting and complementing each other. Students with high mathematical abilities can fulfill all indicators of problem-solving creativity, students with moderate mathematical abilities have one indicator of problem-solving creativity that is not met, students with low abilities cannot fulfill several indicators of problem-solving creativity. So it can be concluded that mathematical abilities can influence students' creativity in solving problems
Problem Solving Abilities in Social Arithmetic of 8th Grade Students Reviewed From Cognitive Styles Fuadi, Ukas Alif; Sujiwo, Dimas Andhita Cahyo; Anas, Aswar
Journal of Education and Learning Mathematics Research (JELMaR) Vol 5 No 2 (2024): November 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Wisnuwardhana University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37303/jelmar.v5i2.159

Abstract

Quality education in the SDGs aims to improve high-level thinking and problem-solving capabilities at all levels of education. Nevertheless at SMP Baitul Arqom, students has difficulties in solving mathematical problems, especially in social arithmetic. The aim of this research is to determine the ability of 8th grade students at SMP Baitul Arqom in solving social arithmetic problems in terms of impulsive and reflective cognitive styles. This research approach is descriptive, which describes the level of students' problem solving abilities based on impulsive and reflective cognitive styles. Then this research is a qualitative type, because the findings that will be explored in this research do not require procedural statistical analysis. This research was carried out at SMP Baitul Arqom Balung. Data sources include arithmetic test questions, MFFT, and interviews. The research subjects were class VIII students at SMP Baitul Arqom. Based on the results of the MFFT test and social arithmetic problem solving for 8th grade students at SMP Baitul Arqom, it shows that there were 9 impulsive students, 11 reflective students, and 4 students who were neither categorized as impulsive nor reflective. There is a clear difference between impulsive and reflective students. Impulsive students, IS1 and IS2, tended to be quick in responding but often inaccurate, indicating the need for practice in slowing down the decision-making process to increase accuracy. Meanwhile, reflective students, RS1 and RS2, were very accurate but slow, indicating the need for practice in speeding up the thinking process without sacrificing quality
The Effect of the Problem-Based Learning Model Based on Ethnomathematics on Students' Learning Outcomes as Seen in the Face of Learning Styles M. Ramadhan Evendi; Aswar Anas; Dimas Anditha Cahyo Sujiwo
Electronic Journal of Education, Social Economics and Technology Vol 6, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : SAINTIS Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33122/ejeset.v6i2.969

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of the ethnomathematics-based Problem Based Learning (PBL) learning model on students' mathematics learning outcomes in terms of learning styles. The study used a quantitative approach with a quasi-experimental design. The subjects were 60 seventh-grade students of MTs Negeri 10 Jember who were divided into two groups, namely the experimental class and the control class. The experimental class received learning using the ethnomathematics-based PBL model, while the control class received conventional learning. The research instruments included a learning outcome test and a learning style questionnaire. Data analysis was carried out using a t-test (independent sample t-test) to determine differences in learning outcomes between the two groups. The results of the normality test showed that the data were normally distributed (p 0.05), and the homogeneity test showed that the data variance was homogeneous (p 0.05). The results of the t-test showed that there was a significant difference between the experimental class and the control class (p = 0.000 0.05). The average learning outcomes of students in the experimental class were higher. It can be concluded that the ethnomathematics-based PBL model is effective in improving mathematics learning outcomes, especially for students with a visual learning style.