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All Journal JURNAL PIJAR Jurnal DIDIKA: Wahana Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar Jurnal Agrotek UMMat JPMI (Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Indonesia) J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Indonesian Physical Review Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Geodika: Jurnal Kajian Ilmu dan Pendidikan Geografi Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS International Journal of Educational Research and Social Sciences (IJERSC) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application TEACHING : Jurnal Inovasi Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan SCIENCE : Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Matematika dan IPA STRATEGY : Jurnal Inovasi Strategi dan Model Pembelajaran Jurnal Pijar MIPA Jurnal Penelitian, Pengembangan Pembelajaran dan Teknologi (JP3T) Journal of applied statistics and data mining
Ristu Haiban Hirzi, Ristu
Universitas Hamzanwadi
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat)

 1 
PERBANDINGAN METODE PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN RANDOM FOREST PADA DATA OUTLIER Lukmanul Hakim; Asep Saefuddin; Ristu Haiban Hirzi; Agustifa Zea Tazliqoh
STATMAT : JURNAL STATISTIKA DAN MATEMATIKA Vol 4, No 2 (2022)
Publisher : Math Program, Math and Science faculty, Pamulang University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32493/sm.v4i2.27349

Abstract

ABSTRACT The progress of a country is seen from various indicators and one of them is the welfare of its population. The most basic welfare of the population in an agrarian country like Indonesia can be seen from the welfare of its farmers. The indicator that is commonly used to measure the welfare of farmers is by using Farmer Exchange Rates (NTP). However, it is known that the exchange rate of farmers during the Covid 19 pandemic has experienced a very drastic decline. This is difficult for the government to make predictions. So a special method is needed in handling it. In this study, two methods were used, namely single exponential smoothing and random forest. From the research results, it was found that the MAPE value in single exponential smoothing was smaller when compared to the random forest. However, the fact is that the exchange rate of farmers every year always increases. Therefore it can be concluded that exponential smoothing is weak against outlier data.Keywords: Exponential ,Smoothing, Random Forest, MAPE, Forecasting  ABSTRAKMaju atau tidaknya suatu negara dilihat dari berbagai indikator dan salah satunya yaitu kesejahteraan penduduknya. Kesejahteraan penduduk yang paling mendasar pada negara agraris seperti Indonesia dapat dilihat dari kesejahteraan petaninya. Indikator yang umum digunakan untuk mengukur kesejahteraaan petani yaitu dengan menggunakan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP). Akan tetapi diketahui bahwa nilai tukar petani selama pandemi covid 19 melangalami penurunan yang sangat drastis. Hal ini sulit pagi pemerintah dalam melakukan prediksi. Sehingga di butuhkan metode khusus dalam penanganannya. Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan dua metode yaitu singgel exponential smoothing dan random forest. Dari hasil penelitian didapatkan hasil bahwa nilai MAPE pada single exponential smoothing lebih kecil jika dibandingkan dengan random forest. Akan tetapi faktanya nilai tukar petani setiap tahunnya selalu mengalami peningkatan. Oleh karena itu dapat disimpulkan bahwa exponential smoothing lemah terhadap data outlier. Kata Kunci: Exponential ,Smoothing, Random Forest, MAPE, Peramalan 
Co-Authors Abdul Rahim Abdullah Abdullah Abdullah Abdullah, Abdullah Agustifa Zea Tazliqoh Amaly, M. Hadiyan Aryani Novianti, Baiq ASEP SAEFUDDIN Astutu, Siti Hariati Atria Ayu Septiani Ayu Septiani, Ayu Basirun, Basirun Bidayah, Nikmatul Chandrawati, Chandrawati Chintyana, Alissa DEDY EKA HASPANI Dinda Ayu Lara Saky EKA OKTAVIANI Fahrurrozi Fahrurrozi Hadian Mandala Putra Hanifa Prahastami Pambayun Hanipar Mahyulis Sastriana Hapipi Hapipi Harista Almiatus Soleha Jatiatul Muhsinah Kertanah Kertanah Kertanah, Kertanah Khaerus Syahidi Lukmanul Hakim M. Hadiyan Amaly Muanah, Muanah Muhammad Gazali Muhammad Malthuf Muhammad Malthuf Nawwarun Uyun Fikriah Nazri, Muhammad NENY ENDRIANA Pratama, Ridho Yudha Putri Septiana Rizky Rahadi, Irwan Ramli, Tri Juliantin Rodi Satriawan Rody Satriawan Sabar Sabar Sapiruddin, Sapiruddin Siti Hariati Hastuti Sri Supiyati, Sri Sripatmi Sripatmi Sripatmi Sripatmi Umam Hidayaturrohman WIBOWO, JANU ARLIN Wiwit Pura Nurmayanti Wiwit Purwa Nurmayanti Zaotul Wardi Zuhut Ramdani