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All Journal The Journal of Experimental Life Sciences (JELS) Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Mahasiswa Statistik Journal of Innovation and Applied Technology Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN PERFORMA : Media Ilmiah Teknik Industri BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Proceeding Simposium Nasional Kelautan dan Perikanan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Jurnal Pertanian Agros Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Jurnal ABDINUS : Jurnal Pengabdian Nusantara Inferensi MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics ABDI UNISAP: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Community Empowerment International Journal of Informatics Engineering and Computing
Atiek Iriany
Universitas Brawijaya
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Automotive Engineering Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications

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Comparison of Adaptive Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing and Recurrent Neural Network Model for Forecasting Rainfall in Malang City Novi Nur Aini; Atiek Iriany; Waego Hadi Nugroho; Faddli Lindra Wibowo
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol. 13 No. 2 (2022): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v13i2.7570

Abstract

Rainfall forecast is necessary for many aspects of regional management. Prediction of rainfall is useful for reducing negative impacts caused by the intensity of rainfall, such as landslides, floods, and storms. Hence, a rainfall forecast with good accuracy is needed. Many rainfall forecasting models have been developed, including the adaptive Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) method. The research aimed to compare the result of forecasting between the Holt-Winters adaptive exponential smoothing method and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) method. The data were monthly rainfall data in Malang City from January 1983 to December 2019 obtained from a website. Then, the data were divided into training data and testing data. Training data consisted of rainfall data in Malang City from January 1983 to December 2017. Meanwhile, the testing data were rainfall data in Malang City from January 2018 to December 2019. The comparison result was assessed based on the values of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The result reveals that the RNN method has better RMSE and MAPE values, namely RMSE values of 0,377 and MAPE values of 1,596, than the Holt-Winter Adaptive Exponential Smoothing method with RMSE values of 0,500 and MAPE values of 0,620. It can be concluded that the non-linear model has better forecasting than the linear model. Therefore, the RNN model can be used in modeling and forecasting trend and seasonal time series.
Co-Authors A. Fahmi Indrayani Achmad Efendi Agung Sugeng Widodo Agus Dwi Sulistyono, Agus Dwi Alim, Viky Iqbal Azizul Amanda, Devi Veda Ani Budi Astuti Aniek Iriany Arditama Putra Rochmanullah Arianto, Danang Arifin Noor Sugiharto Aris Subagiyo Asaliontin, Lisa Ayu Aisyah Ashari Ayunda Sovia, Nabila Bambang Dwi Argo Bestari Archita Safitri Budi Astuti, Ani Cecep Kusmana Chairunissa, Abela Danang Ariyanto Darmanto Darmanto David Forgenie Dewi, Anggi Seftia Dhanny Septimawan Sutopo Elok Waziiroh Eni Sumarminingsih Faddli Lindra Wibowo Fernandes, Adji Fernandes, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Firdaus, Cahyani Jannah Fudianita, Citra Hamdan, Rosita Haneinanda Junianto, Fachira Hartawati, Hartawati Henny Pramoedyo Henny Pramoedyo Hidayat, Kamelia Hidayat, Kamelia Hidayatulloh, Moh. Zhafran Hidayatulloh, Moh. Zhafran Iwan Setiawan Junianto, Fachira Haneinanda Khoiril Anam, Khoiril Kusdarwati, Heni Maghfiro, Maulidya Maghfiro, Maulidya Maisaroh, Ulfah Marhen Andan Prasetyo Mellysa Isnaini Muhamad Firdaus Muhamad Ridwan Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani NI WAYAN SURYA WARDHANI Nikmatul Khoiriyah Novi Nur Aini Novi Nur Aini, Novi Nur Nugroho, Arief Budi Nugroho, Salma Fitri Nur Silviyah Rahmi Oktavia , Nur Sofi Sely Ola, Petrus Kanisius Pramaningrum, Dea Saraswati Prayudi Lestantyo Putra, Arditama Putri, Henida Ratna Ayu Rahma Fitriani Ridlo, Mahmuddin Rinaldo Fernandes, Adji Achmad Riza, Sativandi Rosyida, Diana Rudiat Sekarsari, Cindy Sepriadi, Hanifa Solimun Solimun Solimun Solimun, Solimun Suci Astutik Sugiarto S Sukamto, Ika Sumiyarsi Suryawardhani, Ni Wayan Sutopo, Dhanny Septimawan Ullah, Mohammad Ohid Utomo, Candra Rezzining Wulat Sariro Weni Waego Hadi Nugroho Wardhani, Ni Wayan Surya Wigbertus Ngabu Yuliana, Mila