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KAJIAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES-CHEN DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN DAN TERAPAN PADA PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN Rahmadani, Rahmadani; Mardiningsih, Mardiningsih; Rosmaini, Elly; Nasution, Putri Khairiah
MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol 10, No 1 (2024): Edisi Oktober
Publisher : Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30743/mes.v10i1.9333

Abstract

Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series-Chen dan Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain untuk mengkaji dan menerapkan kedua metode pada peramalan curah hujan di Kota Medan sehingga didapat keakuratan dari masing-masing metode. Fuzzy Time Series merupakan metode peramalan yang berdasarkan prinsip fuzzy. Peramalan pada metode ini yaitu dengan menggunakan pola data sebelumnya, kemudian pola tersebut dapat meramalkan data dimasa mendatang. Metode Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) merupakan pendekatan baru yang menggabungkan variabel linguistik dengan proses analisis sehingga diperoleh hasil kajian dan penerapan Fuzzy Time Series-Chen dan Fuzzy Time Series Markov-Chain untuk memprediksi curah hujan di Kota Medan pada Januari 2018- Oktober 2022 dilihat dari ketetapan nilai MAPE sangat akurat. Nilai MAPE dari hasil peramalan curah hujan di Kota Medan dengan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series-Chen adalah sebesar % dan untuk peramalan satu bulan kedepan sebesar 264 mm di bulan November 2022 sedangkan Fuzzy Time Series Markov-Chain sebesar 1,01% dan prediksi bulan berikutnya sebesar 233 mm pada bulan November 2022. Perbandingan gambar Fuzzy Time Series-Chen memiliki (MAPE) lebih besar dibandingkan Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain dengan pola kesalahan pada tabelnya lebih besar. Berdasarkan kriteria MAPE, untuk Fuzzy Time Series-Chen dan Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain memenuhi akurasi peramalan akurat, karena tingkat MAPE-nya kurang dari 10%.
STUDI TENTANG KESTABILAN MODEL SIRD-T DENGAN KRITERIA ROUTH-HURWITZ PADA PENYEBARAN SUATU PENYAKIT MENULAR Barus, Tania Aldera Hartanta Putri; Nababan, Esther Sorta Mauli; Mardiningsih, Mardiningsih; Syahputra, Muhammad Romi
MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol 10, No 1 (2024): Edisi Oktober
Publisher : Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30743/mes.v10i1.9306

Abstract

Penelitian ini menginterpretasikan gambaran model matematika SIRD-T dalam kasus penyakit campak, bertujuan untuk membentuk titik kesetimbangan (ekuilibrium) yang terdiri dari bebas penyakit dan endemik, menganalisis stabilitas titik ekuilibrium, serta melakukan simulasi numerik melalui parameter yang mempengaruhi penyebaran penyakit campak, sehingga dapat mengurangi penyebarannya. Kriteria Routh-Hurwitz menunjukkan bahwa infeksi tidak meningkat dan sistem akan menjadi stabil asimtotis. Kemudian diperoleh bilangan reproduksi dasar  artinya tidak terjadi penyebaran pada penyakit campak yang menandakan stabilitas jangka panjang. Sebagai hasil dari simulasi Odin, populasi Suspectible akan tetap berada pada populasi karena populasi berada dalam kondisi endemik, dan populasi Infected seiring berjalannya waktu akan stabil lokal.
Analisis Kualitas Pelayanan Sekolah SMAN 1 Berastagi terhadap Kepuasan Siswa dengan Metode Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) Gopinda Surbakti; Asima Manurung; Muhammad Romi Syahputra; Mardiningsih Mardiningsih
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 2 No. 6 (2024): Desember : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v2i6.1325

Abstract

In improving the quality of service to provide satisfaction to students, SMAN 1 Berastagi needs efforts to meet student expectations, so that students get satisfaction with the services provided by SMAN 1 Berastagi. Student satisfaction with the quality of services received can be measured using Importance Performance Analysis (IPA). Physical evidence, dependability, responsiveness, assurance, and care are the five aspects of service quality that make up service quality, which is an important term for service consumers. Of the 20 attributes asked to students, there are 2 attributes that are in the A quadrant important and anticipated. Prioritizing improvements in this dimension needs to be done. Factors included in quadrant A include ease of access to school services and ease of contact for educators.
Penerapan Teori Permainan dalam Menentukan Strategi Pemasaran Optimum pada Produk Mi Instan (Mie Sedaap, Gaga, dan Supermi) di Lingkungan Mahasiswa Matematika Universitas Sumatera Utara Miftah Khairani; Muhammad Romi Syahputra; Parapat Gultom; Mardiningsih Mardiningsih
Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Vol. 2 No. 6 (2024): Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/algoritma.v2i6.271

Abstract

Instant noodle consumption in Indonesia has continued to increase in the last few years, which indicates that there are more business opportunities for instant noodle products in Indonesia. Proved by the number of instant noodle brands scattered on the market. This has led to increased competition among companies in order to be the best in the eyes of consumers. Marketing strategies are needed to win competition as well as increase sales, ranging from taste innovations, prices, product quality, promotions, and so on. In this study, game theory is used to investigate the competition between Mie Sedaap, Gaga, and Supermi. Using pure strategy is obtained game value that shows that the optimal strategy for Mie Sedaap is ease of purchase, the optimum strategy for Gaga is packaging strategy, and the optimum strategy for Supermi is price strategy.
Penerapan Analisis Faktor dalam Menentukan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Keputusan Belanja Online Melalui Aplikasi Shopee (Studi Kasus: Mahasiswa Universitas Sumatera Utara) Bunga Sakinah; Elly Rosmaini; Muhammad Romi Syahputra; Mardiningsih Mardiningsih
Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Vol. 2 No. 6 (2024): Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/algoritma.v2i6.275

Abstract

Factor analysis is a statistical method aimed at exploring correlations or relationships among variables studied, which are then grouped into fewer new factors. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a statistical technique used to reduce the dimensions of data with the goal of identifying hidden patterns or significant structures within the data. The research results indicate the presence of 5 factors influencing the decision-making process in online shopping among students of the University of North Sumatra via Shopee, namely the Funding Application Factor (28.141%), Information Reputation Factor (13.983%), Communication Satisfaction Factor (7.452%), Types and Compensation Factor (6.683%), and Guarantees and Prices Factor (5.794%). These five factors obtained a cumulative variance of 62.051%, indicating that they influence online shopping decisions through Shopee among University of North Sumatra students by 62.051%.
Kajian Metode Analisis Spektral Pada Peramalan Curah Hujan Zega, Putri May Sari; Mardiningsih, Mardiningsih
Journal of Information System Research (JOSH) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): April 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/josh.v6i3.6694

Abstract

Rainfall is an important element in climate research, and its analysis requires appropriate approaches to reveal seasonal patterns and periodicity. This research aims to explore the application of the spectral analysis method in rainfall forecasting using monthly rainfall data from Serdang Bedagai Regency for 10 years (January 2014 – December 2023) totaling 120 data. The method used is harmonic analysis, a Fourier approach to extracting frequency information from time series data. This research began with data visualization, stationarity testing using the Phillips-Perron test, to spectral analysis involving calculations of Fourier coefficients and periodograms to detect dominant frequencies. The results show that the data has a periodic component with the highest frequency at 0.524, which is equivalent to a 12 month period. These results indicate the existence of seasonal patterns in rainfall data, which is relevant to support more accurate climate forecasting models. The implications of this research include the use of spectral analysis as a reliable method for identifying periodicity and building seasonal pattern-based forecasting models, which can be applied in various studies related to climate change and its mitigation.
A Multi-Objective Decomposition Model for Integrated Urban Transit Line Planning and Passenger Routing Hasibuan, Shubuhan Syukri; Suwilo, Saib; Mardiningsih, Mardiningsih
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Research Articles April 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v9i2.14803

Abstract

: Urban public transport networks must balance traveler convenience with tight budgetary and capacity constraints. This study develops a comprehensive multi-objective integer programming framework that unifies line selection, frequency setting, and passenger routing to minimize door-to-door travel time and operating cost while respecting vehicle capacities and limiting transfers. The model is solved using a Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition approach with linear-programming relaxation, which enables tractable solutions on realistically scaled networks. To reflect real-world commuting behavior, three increasingly sophisticated formulations are proposed: a Basic Line Planning Model, a Direct Connection Capacity Model, and a Change-and-Go Model that embeds walking and waiting penalties. On a six-edge, four-node network with 6,000 passenger trips, the Change-and-Go Model emerges as the most effective, reducing average travel time by 47%, halving transfers, and increasing cost by only 11% compared to the incumbent plan. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model remains robust under varying demand levels and cost–time priorities. The proposed framework thus offers a scalable and passenger-friendly decision-support tool that significantly improves public transport efficiency with moderate investment, making it especially valuable for urban transit agencies seeking to modernize their services.
PENENTUAN BILANGAN KROMATIK HARMONIK PADA GRAF HASIL KALI KARTESIAN ANTARA GRAF LINTASAN DENGAN TIGA TITIK DAN GRAF BINTANG DENGAN (N+1) TITIK Feren, Feren; Suwilo, Saib; Mardiningsih, Mardiningsih; Yanti, Maulida
MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol 11, No 1 (2025): Edisi Oktober
Publisher : Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30743/mes.v11i1.11405

Abstract

This research discusses the harmonious chromatic number on the Cartesian product of a path graph with three vertices (P_3) and a star graph with n vertices (S_n). Harmonious coloring is a vertex coloring of a graph such that each pair of colors appears on at most one edge. The objective of this research is to develop a harmonious coloring algorithm and also to determine and prove a general formula for the harmonious chromatic number of the graph P_3×S_n. The research method is literature-based with a mathematical approach, start from constructing modified adjacency matrices until testing the coloring algorithm. The proof is conducted through mathematical induction and structural graph analysis. The result shows that the harmonious chromatic number of P_3×S_n for n=1 is 5, for n=2,3 is 7, for n=4 is 8, whereas for n≥5, it is n+3.
Model Estimasi Produksi Padi Menggunakan Analisis Regresi Data Panel Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Berdasarkan Data Tahun 2015-2019 Fuji Hidayah; Mardiningsih Mardiningsih
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): April : Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v2i1.722

Abstract

Analysis of panel data regression is a regression method to determine the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable using combined data, namely between cross-section data and time-series data.Analysis of panel data regression can apply to the processing of rice production estimates for an area including the province of North Sumatera. North Sumatera is one of the provinces in Indonesia, at the very of the population focuses on the agricultural sector as the main livelihood in rice being the primary production. Based on data on the development of rice production at the Agriculture Office of North Sumatra Province, the level of rice production in 2019 for North Sumatra Province reached 4,693,563 Ton/Year.Throught Panel Data Regression Analysis with the three approach methods is Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM) , the best approach method is obtained, namely the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with the best estimation model is . The coefficient of determination of 0.950890, which means that the independent variable affects the dependent variable by 95.08% on rice production.Based on the estimation model, the development of rice production in the next 3 years, namely 2020, 2021 and 2022, has changes of around 39.88% (decrease), 10.68% (increase), 9.89% (increase).
Kajian Metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Dan Technique For Order Preference By Similarity To Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) Serta Penerapannya Dita Fitria; Mardiningsih Mardiningsih
Pendekar : Jurnal Pendidikan Berkarakter Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): Februari : Jurnal Pendidikan Berkarakter
Publisher : LPPM Politeknik Pratama

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51903/pendekar.v2i1.578

Abstract

The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method are two methods that are commonly used to handle multicriteria problems. The AHP technique uses a matrix of pairwise comparisons and a hierarchical approach to criteria in order to obtain the final criteria weights. In contrast, the TOPSIS approach incorporates the concepts of proximity to the ideal solution and preference. Next, TOPSIS uses the previously established criterion weights to compute each option's relative closeness score to the ideal answer. In order to determine how effectively the AHP and TOPSIS methodologies complement one another, this study aims to assess the protocols and underlying assumptions of the two approaches. When decision makers are aware of the benefits and drawbacks of each approach, they may choose the best course of action from a mix of the two. The results of the study indicate that the process may be streamlined, subjectivity can be reduced, and criterion weights can be stabilized by combining the AHP and TOPSIS approaches.The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method are two methods that are commonly used to handle multicriteria problems. The AHP technique uses a matrix of pairwise comparisons and a hierarchical approach to criteria in order to obtain the final criteria weights. In contrast, the TOPSIS approach incorporates the concepts of proximity to the ideal solution and preference. Next, TOPSIS uses the previously established criterion weights to compute each option's relative closeness score to the ideal answer. In order to determine how effectively the AHP and TOPSIS methodologies complement one another, this study aims to assess the protocols and underlying assumptions of the two approaches. When decision makers are aware of the benefits and drawbacks of each approach, they may choose the best course of action from a mix of the two. The results of the study indicate that the process may be streamlined, subjectivity can be reduced, and criterion weights can be stabilized by combining the AHP and TOPSIS approaches.