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Forecasting Rice Paddy Production in Aceh Using ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Models Nurviana, Nurviana; Amelia, Amelia; Riezky Purnama Sari, Riezky Purnama Sari; Ulya Nabilla, Ulya Nabilla; Talib, Taufan
CAUCHY Vol 7, No 2 (2022): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi (May 2022) (Issue in Progress)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v7i2.13701

Abstract

Indonesia targets Aceh to be one of the paddy production centers and be able to carry out self-sufficient production in paddy and become a national granary. However, in reality, Aceh's paddy production in its province is not consistent from year to year. This province has not been able to meet the food needs of paddy independently, so that it supplies paddy from other regions due to the difficulty of detecting the presence of a surplus of paddy. The purpose of this research is to estimate the results of paddy production in Aceh for the future. The mathematical model that can be used is a time series model namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing. The results of the estimation of  paddy production in the next 5 years using the ARIMA (1,1,3) model are 2000616; 2017549; 1903585; 1944499; and 1929810. While the estimation results using the Winter Exponential Smoothing model are 1625925; 1645196; 1687667; 1605530; and 1555213. ARIMA model (1,1,3) produces an MSE/MAD value of , while the Winter Exponential Smoothing model produces an MSE/MAD value of . Therefore, it can be concluded that the Winter Exponential Smoothing model.
PELATIHAN PENYUSUNAN SOAL HOTS DAN ANALISIS BUTIR TES BAGI GURU-GURU SD DI KECAMATAN KAIRATU Novalin C Huwaa; Carolina S Ayal; Anderson L Palinussa; Taufan Talib
PAKEM : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 1 No 1 (2021): Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (762.281 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/pakem.1.1.15-19

Abstract

Pelaksanaan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk melatih guru-guru SD di Kecamatan Kairatu untuk Menyusun soal High Ordered Thinking Skils (HOTS) dan menganalisis butir tes bentuk objektif secara manual maupun dengan menggunakan Anates. Dengan adanya pelatihan yang dilakukan ini, hampir semua peserta pelatihan sudah mampu mengidentifikasikan dan menyusun soal HOTS dibandingkan dengan sebelum pelatihan. Hal yang sama juga terjadi untuk analisis butir tes. Peserta yang semula tidak menganalisis butir tes karena tidak mengerti caranya, sudah bisa menganalisis secara manual maupun dengan menggunakan Anates
Modeling Biodegradation of Polyethylene Terephthalate Involving the Growth of Factor Escherichia Coli Bacteria Taufan Talib
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 1 No 1 (2022): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (604.926 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol1iss1pp07-16

Abstract

A design of a Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) waste biodegradation system using Escherichia Coli (E-Coli) bacteria in a whole-cell biocatalyst system. E-Coli bacteria will produce LC-Cutinase enzyme on the cell surface so PET can be broken down into Ethylene glycol and Terephthalate acid. With the help of Reductase and Dehydrogenase enzymes, a chemical reaction occurs that converts Ethylene glycol into Malate. Through the chemical reaction process, it is guaranteed that Ethylene glycol does not explain the environment but can be used as an energy source for the growth of E-Coli bacteria. Thus E-Coli can grow faster, so the more bacteria, the more PET that can be broken down quickly.
PERBANDINGAN MODEL REGRESI WEIBULL DAN REGRESI COX PROPOSIONAL HAZARD Mayawi Mayawi; Nurhayati Nurhayati; Novita Serly Laamena; Ariestha Widyastuty Bustan; Munazat Salmin; Taufan Talib
Science Map Journal Vol 4 No 2 (2022): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol4issue2pp49-60

Abstract

This study aims to determine the model of Acute Myocardial Infarction using the Weibull Regression and Cox Proportional Hazard Regression methods to determine the factors that significantly influence the length of time for recovery of acute myocardial infarction patients. The results of this study indicate that the factors that significantly influence the recovery time of acute myocardial infarction patients are age, onset, number of secondary diagnoses and duration of pain. Based on the AIC value, the Weibull regression model is the best regression model because the AIC value is smaller, namely 292.883 compared to the Cox Proportional Hazard regression model with an AIC value of 493.3971
VARIATIONS IN THE USE OF MAKE A MATCH LEARNING MODELS, SCRAMBLE LEARNING MODELS, AND CONVENTIONAL LEARNING MODELS TO IMPROVE STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES Carolina Selfisina Ayal; Binti Rohmawati; Taufan Talib
Science Map Journal Vol 4 No 2 (2022): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol4issue2pp74-81

Abstract

Variations in the use of various mathematical learning models are expected to provide an overview of the ability of students to understand mathematical concepts. This study aimed to determine the variation of students' mathematics learning outcomes by using the make a match learning model, the scramble learning model, and the Conventional learning model. Using the quasi-experimental method, the make a match and scramble learning model was applied as the independent variable and the conventional learning model as the control variable. Statistically, the F test was used to show that there was a difference in the mean with the value of Fcount = 4.22 > Ftable = 3.18, and Tukey's HSD analysis showed a value of 14.18 and compared to the group mean, it was concluded that the use of the make a match learning model gave the better learning result value between scramble and conventional learning models
PENINGKATAN KOMPETENSI PEDAGOGICAL CONTENT KNOWLEDGE BAGI GURU SMP DAN SMA DI KECAMATAN TEHORU Hanisa Tamalene; Christina M Laamena; M Samad Rumalean; Taufan Talib
PAKEM : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 2 No 2 (2022): Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pakem.2.2.96-102

Abstract

Apart from teaching and research in tertiary institutions, Community Service (PKM) is also an essential element in the tri dharma of higher education that every lecturer must carry out. Teaching is a complex process; teaching is not just about conveying information to students but includes many actions that must be taken. In the community service activity that will be carried out with the title Improving Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) for middle and high school teachers, it aims to provide information to teachers about the use of Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) competencies in learning to improve teachers' understanding of these competencies further. This activity also helps improve the quality of teaching and student learning that supports in-depth discussions with colleagues, builds camaraderie, creates a reflective and sustainable learning culture, and provides opportunities for teachers to learn curriculum, management, content, and pedagogy. The method used in this service activity is to provide information, materials, and examples about the competence of Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) and Technology Pedagogical Content Knowledge (TPACK). To increase the knowledge and skills of the relevant participating teachers (PCK) and Technology Pedagogical Content Knowledge (TPACK) and further explore the unique mix of content and pedagogy from the teacher, which will ultimately form a professional understanding of the teacher himself
KEMAMPUAN PEMECAHAN MASALAH DAN SELF EFFICACY MAHASISWA DALAM MENYELESAIKAN WORKSHEET PERSAMAAN DIFERENSIAL TINGKAT SATU DERAJAT N Rofiroh Rofiroh; Isnaini Mahuda; Taufan Talib; Faqihuddin Faqihuddin
Science Map Journal Vol 4 No 2 (2022): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol4issue2pp93-107

Abstract

This study aims to describe the problem solving ability of UMT students in solving the first degree differential equations worksheet with the factorization method. This research is included in the category of qualitative research with a descriptive category. The research subjects were 20 fourth semester students for the 2021/2022 academic year. Data collection methods used are test techniques, filling out structured student worksheets and filling out questionnaires. The test is carried out by filling out the initial test. Filling out structured student worksheets consisting of material, examples and practice questions. Based on the initial test data, filling in the worksheets and questionnaires, the criteria for the three types of students were obtained. Type 1 students fill out 1-2 initial test questions, fill in the material incompletely, the sample questions are only done one question out of the two questions provided with unsystematic problem solving analysis and the last part of the practice questions is not filled in. Type 2 students fill out 2-3 questions for the initial test, complete the material, two examples of questions are done, the practice questions are filled with one question. Type 3 students work on 4 pre-test questions, complete structured student worksheets for each material, sample questions and practice questions. The student fills out a worksheet with a systematic problem-solving analysis
IMPLEMENTATION OF NUMERACY LITERACY TRAINING FOR TEACHERS AND ITS ACHIEVEMENT IN CENTRAL MALUKU REGENCY Anderson L Palinussa; Christina M Laamena; Taufan Talib
PAKEM : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 3 No 1 (2023): Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pakem.3.1.20-26

Abstract

The achievement of learning outcomes from the 2022 public education report card issued by the Pusmendik Kemdibudristek at the elementary and junior high school levels for the Central Maluku Regency, obtained less than 50% have reached the minimum competency limit for reading and arithmetic literacy, this is below the minimum competency for literacy and numeracy skills. Therefore, it is essential for activities regarding the development of teacher quality in dealing with the learning process, especially in literacy and numeracy abilities. This service activity aims to provide benefits to teachers in implementing numeracy literacy in the learning process to improve student learning outcomes, especially in numeracy literacy skills. This service is carried out using a training method with stages: Exposure to numeracy-based learning, workshops on writing numeracy literacy questions, and evaluations. The service activity occurred at SMP Negeri 38 Maluku Tengah, which acted as a partner. The training was attended by 30 elementary and junior high school teachers throughout Central Maluku Regency. The evaluation was conducted to see the achievement of the activities. The results obtained an average of 90.92% during the implementation of service with planning and received a good appreciation from the participants, namely teachers in Central Maluku Regency
Ordinal Logistic Regression Analysis of Factors that Affecting the Blood Sugar Levels Diabetes Mellitus Patients Mayawi Mayawi; Nurhayati Nurhayati; Taufan Talib; Ariestha W Bustan; Novita S Laamena
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 2 No 1 (2023): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol2iss1pp33-42

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh faktor-faktor risiko terhadap kadar gula darah pada penderita diabetes mellitus menggunakan analisis regresi logistik ordinal. Faktor-faktor risiko yang dijadikan variabel bebas adalah usia, jenis kelamin, Indeks Massa Tubuh (IMT), tekanan darah, Tingkat Kolesterol (TC), Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), High Density Lipoprotein (HDL), Thyrocalcitonin Hormone (TCH) dan Loss Trigliserida(LTG). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari https://hastie.su.domains/Papers/LARS/diabetes.data. Jumlah sampel yang diambil sebanyak 100 responden yang telah terdiagnosis diabetes mellitus. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor risiko seperti usia, Indeks Massa Tubuh (IMT), Tingkat Kolesterol (TC), Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) dan jenis serum Thyrocalcitonin Hormone (TCH) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kadar gula darah pada penderita diabetes mellitus. Model logit terbaik untuk regresi logistic ordinal adalah Logit 1 yaitu g(x_1 )= -2.721-0.079 X_1+2.813〖 X〗_3+〖0.100 X〗_5-0.099 X_6-0.119 X_7-0.989 X_8 dan Logit 2 yaitu g(x_2 )= -8.571-0.079 X_1+2.813〖 X〗_3+〖0.100 X〗_5-0.099 X_6-0.119 X_7-0.989 X_8. Disimpulkan bahwa analisis regresi logistik ordinal dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kadar gula darah pada penderita diabetes mellitus dan membantu pengembangan strategi pengelolaan dan intervensi yang lebih efektif
PENERAPAN ANALISIS KLASTER HIERARKI UNTUK PENGELOMPOKAN KABUPATEN/ KOTA DI PROVINSI MALUKU BERDASARKAN STATUS PENDIDIKAN Novita Serly Laamena; Taufan Talib
Science Map Journal Vol 5 No 1 (2023): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol5issue1pp10-18

Abstract

One of the main goals of education is to develop potential and to educate individuals. Education is an effort to help the souls of students both physically and mentally towards a better human civilization. This research was conducted to group districts/cities in Maluku province based on educational status using hierarchical cluster analysis with the single linkage, average linkage and ward's methods. The results showed that clustering using the single linkage and average linkage methods was almost the same, while clustering using the ward's method had quite different results. Clustering using the single linkage and average linkage methods shows that Ambon city is the only city that always has its own cluster and does not join other districts/cities. This shows that the city of Ambon has an education status that is quite different from other districts/cities in Maluku Province. Regencies/cities that are always in the same cluster, namely cluster 1, both in the single linkage method, average linkage and the ward's method are Tanimbar Islands Regency, Southeast Maluku Regency, Central Maluku Regency and Tual City