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All Journal JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Dinamisia: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Sainmatika: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Matematika UNAND Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Indonesian Journal of Applied Research (IJAR) JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Jurnal Diferensial Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Journal of Science and Technology Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
La Ode Nashar
Prodi Statistika, Fakultas Matematika Dan IPA, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Analisis Peramalan Harga Saham PT Unilever Indonesia Menggunakan Pemodelan LSTM dengan Optimasi PSO Burhan, Dewinto; Hasan, Isran K.; Nashar, La Ode
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 5, No 3 (2026): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v5i3.40090

Abstract

Pergerakan harga saham cenderung tidak stabil dan sulit diprediksi karena memiliki pola yang kompleks serta berubah-ubah dari waktu ke waktu. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, penelitian ini menggunakan model Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) dalam melakukan peramalan harga saham. Agar model yang dihasilkan memiliki kinerja yang optimal, dilakukan optimasi hyperparameter menggunakan metode Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Optimasi dilakukan pada tiga parameter utama LSTM yaitu LSTM units, dropout rate, dense units. Dari proses optimasi diperoleh enam konfigurasi model terbaik. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan model ke-5 memberikan hasil optimasi paling baik dengan nilai RMSE 120,3320 dan MAPE sebesar 3,53% dengan menggunakan kombinasi hyperparameter LSTM units = 137, dropout rate = 0,498, dan dense units = 32. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa optimasi hyperparameter memberikan peningkatan akurasi peramalan dibandingkan LSTM tanpa optimasi. Dengan demikian, kombinasi model LSTM dengan optimasi PSO mampu menghasilkan peramalan harga saham yang lebih akurat dan stabil. Pendekatan ini dapat digunakan sebagai alternatif dalam analisis pergerakan harga saham dan mendukung pengambilan keputusan investasi.
Strategi pengendalian penyebaran penyakit kolera dengan vaksinasi, edukasi, dan karantina: analisis model dan simulasi Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; La Ode Nashar; Andi Agung; Bertu Rianto Takaendengan; Widyastutifajri Nuha
Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Vol 7 No 4 (2025): Desember
Publisher : FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jm.v7i4.10479

Abstract

Cholera is an infectious disease transmitted through water contaminated with Vibrio cholerae bacteria. This disease remains a public health challenge, especially in areas with poor sanitation. This study developed an SVIQR-B mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of cholera spread, taking into account the effects of quarantine, vaccination, and environmental hygiene education. The analysis was conducted on disease-free and endemic equilibrium points using a local stability approach based on the basic reproduction number (R0). The results showed that when R0 < 1 , the disease would disappear from the population, while R0 > 1 indicated the potential for endemicity. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulation results indicate that an increase in the transmission rate and a decrease in vaccine effectiveness cause an increase in the value, while an increase in vaccination coverage and the effectiveness of education contribute to a decrease in infection rates. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing integrated medical and educational interventions in efforts to control cholera in a sustainable manner.
Perbandingan Metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif dan Metode Prophet dalam Meramalkan Nilai Tukar USD ke Rupiah Nalole, Mohammad Dwitiar; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Nashar, La Ode; Achmad, Novianita; Asriadi, Asriadi
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 8, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v8i1.96572

Abstract

Nilai tukar antara USD dan Rupiah memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia, sehingga peramalan yang akurat menjadi sangat penting dalam pengambilan keputusan ekonomi. Penelitian ini membandingkan metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif dan metode Prophet dalam meramalkan nilai tukar USD terhadap Rupiah. Data nilai tukar bulanan dari tahun 2018 hingga 2023 digunakan, dengan 80% sebagai data pelatihan dan 20% sebagai data pengujian. Model akhir untuk metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif menggabungkan komponen tren, musiman, dan siklus secara multiplikatif, sehingga memungkinkan representasi perilaku nilai tukar yang lebih rinci dari waktu ke waktu. Sebaliknya, metode Prophet menghasilkan model akhir yang menggabungkan komponen tren dan musiman secara aditif, serta mampu mengakomodasi perubahan tren secara dinamis melalui deteksi otomatis terhadap changepoints. Akurasi kedua metode dievaluasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 1,21%, sedangkan metode Prophet memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 5,43%. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif lebih akurat dalam meramalkan nilai tukar untuk periode yang diberikan, sehingga lebih sesuai untuk dataset ini yang menunjukkan pola musiman yang kuat.Kata kunci: Nilai Tukar; Peramalan; Dekomposisi Multiplikatif; Prophet; MAPE.The exchange rate between USD and Rupiah has a significant impact on Indonesia's economy, making accurate forecasting essential for economic decision-making. This study compares the Multiplicative Decomposition method and the Prophet method in forecasting the USD to Rupiah exchange rate. Monthly exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023 was used, with an 80% training set and a 20% test set. The final model for the Multiplicative Decomposition method combines the trend, seasonal, and cycle components multiplicatively, allowing for a detailed representation of the exchange rate's behavior over time. In contrast, the Prophet method produces a final model that incorporates trend and seasonal components additively, while also accommodating dynamic changes in the trend through automatic detection of changepoints.. The accuracy of both methods was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results show that the Multiplicative Decomposition method had a MAPE of 1.21%, while the Prophet method had a MAPE of 5.43%. These findings indicate that the Multiplicative Decomposition method is more accurate in forecasting the exchange rate for the given period, making it more suitable for this dataset, which exhibits strong seasonal patterns.Keywords: Exchange rate; forecasting; Multiplicative Decomposition; Prophet; MAPE.
Co-Authors Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Ahmad, Rindawati Akor, Umar D. Andi Agung Armayani Arsal Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Bela Cintiya Samwan Bertu Rianto Takaendengan Brahim, Annisa Maharani Burhan, Dewinto Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Dina Fakhriyana Djihad Wungguli Fadilah Istiqomah Pammus Gani, Friansyah Hasan S. Panigoro Hasan, Riyanto Hasibuan, Lilis Harianti Herlina Jusuf Ismail Djakaria Isran K Hasan Iyohu, Lisa Rianti K. Hasan, Isran Karina Anselia Mamonto LA ODE SABRAN Ladjali, Sri Indriani Lailany Yahya Latif, Sintia Abdul LIHAWA, SRIRAPI H Lindrawati Abdjul Loleh, Linda Purnama Sari Mahmud, Sri Lestari Marukai, Nur Amalia Muhammad Rezky F. Payu Nadiyyah, Ana Nalole, Mohammad Dwitiar NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Novianita Achmad Nurafni, Firda Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan NURWAN NURWAN Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmi, Emli Rasyid, Kamelia Resmawan Resmawan Rianjaya, Ilham Dangu Sabran, La Ode Salmun K. Nasib Sartika Sari Dewi Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sugito Mahendra Imran Suleman, Alis Syarif Abdullah Tedy Machmud Ulopo, Asrul S Valentika, Nina Widyastutifajri Nuha Zian Bula