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The Earthquake Prediction in the Southern Part of Sumatra Using Deep Learning (Long Short-Term Memory) Models Lisa, Ainul; Refrizon, Refrizon; Samdara, Rida
JURNAL GEOCELEBES Vol. 10 No. 1: April 2026
Publisher : Departemen Geofisika, FMIPA - Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70561/geocelebes.v10i1.42958

Abstract

The Southern part of Sumatra is highly vulnerable to earthquakes due to its location in the subduction zone between the Indo-Australian plate and the Sunda plate. The Southern part of Sumatra’s vulnerability to earthquakes poses significant risks. This research aims at predicting the Earthquakes in the Southern part of Sumatra Using Deep Learning (Long Short-Term Memory) Models, a deep learning method designed to analyze sequential data. The model utilized 20 years of historical earthquake data from 2004 to 2024, with parameters including magnitude, epicenter location, depth, and event time. Data were preprocessed using Min-Max Scaling normalization and split into training data (70%) and testing data (30%). The model was trained over 150 epochs with a batch size of 32. Evaluation results showed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.28 and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.39, indicating high prediction accuracy. The distribution of prediction results confirmed previous studies indicating that earthquakes in Southern part of Sumatra frequently occur in Bengkulu, western South Sumatra, and Southwestern Lampung. These findings underscore the importance of ongoing seismic hazard mitigation efforts and sustainable development planning in earthquake-prone areas.
Seismic Site Response Characterisation of Sungai Serut Sub-district, Bengkulu City, Using the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) Method Rendoza; Farid, Muchammad; Refrizon, Refrizon; Hardiansa, Debi; Al Ansory, Andre Rahmat; Raihana, Hana
Jurnal Fisika Unand Vol 15 No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Andalas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jfu.15.2.204-210.2026

Abstract

Bengkulu City, located on the west coast of Sumatra, is highly susceptible to seismic hazards due to active tectonic settings. This study investigates subsurface characteristics, ground amplification, and the seismic vulnerability index (Kg) in Sungai Serut Village using the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method based on microtremor measurements. The results indicate that the dominant frequency (f₀) ranges from 1.00 to 6.87 Hz, reflecting variations in sediment stiffness and near surface geological conditions. Based on the dominant frequency distribution, the subsurface materials are predominantly classified as type II soil, which generally corresponds to medium-density sedimentary deposits. The spectral amplification factor (A₀) varies between 1.64 and 5.88, indicating moderate to high amplification levels. The seismic vulnerability index (Kg) ranges from 0.51 to 20.49, with the highest values observed at measurement points 20 and 21, suggesting greater susceptibility to strong ground motion. These findings provide important insights for seismic hazard assessment and support earthquake-resilient spatial planning and infrastructure development in Bengkulu City.
3D MODELING AND DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE KETAHUN SEGMENT BASED ON GGMPLUS AND SRTM2 DATA FOR DISASTER MITIGATION Ulandari, Clora; Halauddin, Halauddin; Refrizon, Refrizon; Zakariya, Hilmi; Suhendra, Suhendra; Farid, Muchammad; Sulistiani, Alda; Raihana, Hana; Apriyanti, Nurul
Jurnal Geosaintek Vol. 12 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j25023659.v12i2.9106

Abstract

interaction between the Sumatra subduction zone and the Sumatra Fault, resulting in high seismic activity. One of the important segments with the potential to cause earthquakes is the Ketahun Segment in Lebong Regency, Bengkulu Province. This study aims to map the three-dimensional (3D) fault structure and identify lithological density contrasts to support disaster mitigation efforts. The methods used include processing GGMPlus and SRTM2gravity satellite gravity data, complete Bouguer correction, regional-residual anomaly separation, first horizontal derivative (FHD) and second vertical derivative (SVD) analysis, and 3D inversion modeling using Grav3D software. The CBA analysis results show anomaly values of –8 to 50 mGal with sharp gradations indicating the presence of major fault structures. SVD and FHD analyses show the dominance of dip-slip faults with significant density contrasts. The 3D inversion modeling shows a density range of 1.02–3.52 g/cm³ with an average value of 2.27 g/cm³, where the low-density zone is at a shallow depth (0–1500 m) and the high-density zone is at a depth of 500–2000 m. The sharp boundary between the two zones indicates an active fault plane at a depth of 1000–2500 m. These findings provide a more representative picture of the fault geometry and can be used as a basis for developing earthquake mitigation strategies and spatial planning based on actual geological conditions in the Bengkulu region.
Analysis of Rock Layering Structure Using Shear Wave Velocity from HVSR Inversion Astuti , Delpa; Refrizon, Refrizon; Hadi, Arif Ismul; Muqtadir, Muhammad Najib Syami
Journal of Technomaterial Physics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Technomaterial Physics
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/jotp.v8i1.25203

Abstract

The Musi Ujan Mas Hydropower Plant (HPP) area in Kepahiang lies within an active tectonic zone influenced by the Sumatra Fault, making it prone to earthquakes. This study aims to analyze subsurface rock structures and seismic vulnerability using shear wave velocity derived from the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) inversion method with TerraWareHV software. Microtremor data were collected at 40 measurement points, each recorded for approximately 30 min. HVSR analysis was used to derive the dominant frequency ( ) and amplification factor ( ), which were subsequently used to generate shear wave velocity models . The results show that the  values range between 1.28 and 5.55 Hz, with most locations characterized by low frequencies associated with thick sediment layers and weak soil materials. The values vary between 2.99 and 16.86,  with higher amplification observed in areas composed of less compact lithology. The inversion results indicate noticeable variations in shear wave velocity with depth, suggesting heterogeneous subsurface conditions. The study area is predominantly composed of thick sediment layers with moderate to high amplification potential. These findings provide valuable insights into local site effects and support seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure development in the region.
Identifikasi Daerah Rawan Longsor secara Mikrozonasi di Jalan Alternatif Provinsi menggunakan Metode Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Fadli, Darmawan Ikhlas; Hadi, Arif Ismul; Allifya, Zagita; Anggriani, Septi; Ramdani, Rama; Idris, Beni Syakban; Refrizon, Refrizon
INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED PHYSICS Vol 13, No 1 (2023): April
Publisher : Department of Physics, Sebelas Maret University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijap.v13i1.62110

Abstract

The alternative provincial in Bengkulu Tengah Regency is located in a location bordering the Musi Fault segment that is part of the Great Sumatran Fault Zone. This condition makes cross-provincial roads in Central Bengkulu Regency vulnerable to natural disasters such as landslides. The purpose of the study was to determine areas that have the potential for landslides in earthquake-prone areas of Central Bengkulu Regency, Bengkulu Province, Indonesia. We performed the HVSR (horizontal to vertical spectral ratio) analysis and the simple additive weighting (SAW) method to achieve the study purpose. Field data acquisition using the PASI Gemini2 broadband seismometer (triaxial geophone). Next, we analyzed the tremor data recorded in the field using a wave spectrum. From the results of this study, we knew that the possibility of landslides in the survey area classified into three categories that is low, medium and high. Landslide risk should be paid more attention in areas with high potential, especially in densely populated areas. The main threat in the study area is an earthquake along the active Sumatran fault. Earthquakes in areas that are very steep and prone to landslides can increase the risk and cause landslides.
Interpretasi Tingkat Kekerasan Batuan Bawah Permukaan di Daerah Rawan Gempa Bumi Kota Bengkulu Hadi, Arif Ismul; Refrizon, Refrizon; Halauddin, Halauddin; Lidiawati, Liza; Edo, Paisal
INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED PHYSICS Vol 11, No 1 (2021): April
Publisher : Department of Physics, Sebelas Maret University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijap.v11i1.46525

Abstract

Bengkulu City is located in the subduction zone of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates, so it is prone to earthquake. To anticipate the impact of earthquake, disaster mitigation can be carried out, one of which is a study of the level of rock hardness in the area. This study aims to determine the level of rock hardness based on seismic wave velocity in several rock formations and to determine which rock formations have the potential to cause vulnerability to earthquakes. Field data acquisition uses the seismic refraction method with time-term inversion technique. The data obtained in the field are processed to obtain a 2-D cross-section of the subsurface seismic wave velocity values. The study results show that the level of rock hardness depends on the type of rock formation. The Andesite Rock Formation Unit (Tpan) has the highest level of hardness, while the transitional area between the Alluvium Rock Formation Unit (Qa) and the Swamp Sedimentary Rock Formation Unit (Qs) has the lowest level of hardness.
Co-Authors Abimayu, Dadin Mars Agung Satria, Lori Agustina, Tari Al Ansory, Andre Rahmat Al Rafly, Tegar Al-Ansory, Andre Rahmat Allifya, Zagita Amalia, Isra Anggria, Della Cici Anggriani, Septi Ansory, Andre Rahmat Al Apriana, Agnes Apriana, Yelda Apriyanti, Nurul Arif Ismul Hadi Arif Ismul Hadi Arsi, Sefti Dini Arya J Akbar Arya Putra Anggi Astuti , Delpa Awaliyah, Isfardian Agustin Azzahra, Gusti Ayu Zahwa Bernard, Admo Daniel, Adrian Darmawan Ikhlas Fadli Edo, Paisal Fachri Faisal Fadli, Darmawan Ikhlas Falenia, Felly Farid*, Muchammad Farid, Muchammad Fauzi, M. Wilzam Febriansyah, Gian Ori Fikri, Muhammad Haikal Gayatriani, Intan Gumanty, Usman Halauddin Halauddin Halauddin Hanifah Maulani, Siti Hanipa, Rerisa Al Hardiansa, Debi Hardiansyah Hardiansyah Hardiansyah, Debi Harlianto, Budi Helinnes, Putri Henny Johan Herno Yudiansyah Hutasoit, Tegar Ashary Idris, Beni Syakban Ikhlas Fadli, Darmawan Irkhos Irkhos Isfardian Agustin Awaliyah Jaya, Shara Ashari Prana Jaya Kamal, Thomas Mustafa Kamila, Nur Husniatin Kausari, Alfata Khairul Amri Kusuma, Budi Praba Larang, Miranda Puspa Lindung Zalbuin Mase, Lindung Zalbuin Lisa, Ainul Lizalidiawati Lizalidiawati M Farid Maesaroh, Rina Maesaroh Maghribi, Faritz Bagda Manurung, Yeni Sartika Misliniyati, Rena Muammar, Zaky Muhammad Dani Muhammad Farid Muqtadir, Muhammad Najib Syami Naldo, Asrol Nanang Sugianto Natasya, Indah Dwi Nazli, Khairun Nurhayati, Ratna Dewi Putri, Aisyah Cindy Phylia Putri, Elona Gita Gatra Putri, Melly Zuhadjar Putriani, Eli Rabbani, M Rifqi Rafly, Tegar Al Rahmat Al-Ansory, Andre Rahmat, Andre Rahmawati, Nurul 'Ilmi Rahmawati, Nurul Ilmi Raihana, Hana Ramdani, Rama Rendoza Rida Samdara Sahputra, Rio Sapanur, Destika Meisy Saputri, Winda Saragih, Ronni Samuel Sholeha, Della Zakia Suaidi Ahadi Suhendra Suhendra Sulistiani, Alda Sumajaya, Erlan Sumanjaya, Erlan - Supriani, Fepy Suwarsono Suwarsono Syah, M. Taufiqqurahman Syaputra, Edo Win Sya’adah, Isni Taufiqurrahman Syah, Muhammad Tri Utami, Olga Triutami, Olga Ulandari, Clora Verentina, Sendiya Yuni Setyowati Zakariya, Hilmi