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All Journal MATEMATIKA Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Jurnal Ketahanan Nasional Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Inferensi Journal of Mathematics Education and Science
Ana, Elly
Statistics Study Program, Faculty Of Science And Technology, University Of Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Peramalan Harga Gandum di Tengah Invasi Rusia ke Ukraina dengan Pendekatan Intervensi Fungsi Step Marcel Laverda Subiyanto; Sediono Sediono; Elly Ana; M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto; Elly Pusporani
Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol. 6 No. 2 (2023): Journal of Mathematics Education and Science
Publisher : Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri Bojonegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32665/james.v6i2.1824

Abstract

Semenjak konflik antara Federasi Rusia dan Ukraina terjadi, perekonomian dunia terdampak cukup parah terutama harga komoditas dunia. Akibat dari perang di Ukraina, beberapa rantai-pasok komoditas pangan dunia mengalami hambatan, hingga berujung pada krisis pangan di sejumlah wilayah di Afrika dan mulai merambat ke beberapa negara khususnya di Asia. Gandum merupakan salah satu komoditas pangan yang mengalami kenaikan harga akibat dari konflik yang terjadi di Ukraina. Kenaikan harga gandum tersebut berdampak pula terhadap kenaikan harga produk turunan dari gandum, seperti tepung yang merupakan bahan baku pembuatan roti dan mie. Produk mie dan roti di Indonesia merupakan salah satu makanan pokok pengganti nasi, sehingga jika kondisi kenaikan harga gandum tidak diatasi, dikhawatirkan akan terjadi krisis pangan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini akan memodelkan dan memprediksi harga gandum dunia di tengah konflik antara Rusia dan Ukraina dengan pendekatan model intervensi fungsi step. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa prediksi harga komoditas gandum dunia di tengah invasi Rusia ke Ukraina dengan pendekatan model intervensi fungsi step menunjukkan hasil yang akurat. Model ARIMA(1,1,0) dengan b=0, s=2, dan r=2 menjadi model intervensi fungsi step paling baik. Nilai MAPE yang ditentukan dari pengujian data adalah 14,27%.
Pengelompokan Daerah di Jawa Timur Berbasis Indikator Kesejahteraan Masyarakat dengan Pendekatan Analisis Cluster Hierarki dan Nonhierarki Muhammad Fikry Al Farizi; Faradilla Harianto; Maria Setya Dewanti; Cynthia Anggelyn Siburian; M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto; Dita Amelia; Elly Ana
Inferensi Vol 6, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v6i2.15452

Abstract

Based on Central Statistics Agency (BPS) data in September 2021, East Java is a province with the largest number of poor people in Indonesia with a total of 26,503 million people. Poverty is one of the factors that affect people's welfare in East Java. Therefore, this research was conducted to classify regencies and cities in East Java based on indicators of community welfare through a hierarchical cluster analysis approach using the single linkage, complete linkage, average linkage, and ward methods, determine the optimum cluster for each method using Pseudo – F, then compare the four methods and determine the best method using the rated value, as well as identify the characteristics of each cluster group based on the best method. There are six variables that will be used in this study. All variable data is secondary data obtained from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of East Java Province. This study produced four clusters using the average linkage method as the best method. This research is expected to be useful as a consideration for evaluating the government and related agencies to overcome the main problems that still occur in each regency and city. Thus, the welfare of the people of East Java can be realized and the SDGs targets in Indonesia can be achieved.
Co-Authors Aniq Atiqi Anisa Laila Azhar Annisa Putri Nayumi Ardi Kurniawan Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Budi Lestari Christopher Andreas Cynthia Anggelyn Siburian Dita Amelia Elly Pusporani Erfiana Erfiana Faradilla Harianto Grace Lucyana Koesnadi Ilma Amira Rahmayanti Isna Nurul Izza Amalia Karina Tri Handayani Khoirun Niswatin M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Maria Setya Dewanti Muhammad Fikry Al Farizi Muhammad Walid Jumlat Na'imatul Lu'lu'a Nadia Dwi Marwanda Noviatus Sholihah Nur Chamidah Nur chamnidah Putri Fardha Asa Oktavia Hans Putri Masyita Qomaryah Salsabylla Nada Apsariny Sediono, Sediono Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Suliyanto Toha Saifudin Yolanda Swastika Yonani