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All Journal Excellent PARADIGMA Proceeding SENDI_U Paradigma Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business Jurnal Pemberdayaan: Publikasi Hasil Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat JISIP: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Pendidikan GERVASI: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat DIKEMAS (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Journal Of Management Science (JMAS) Jurnal Pendidikan dan Konseling Keberlanjutan : Jurnal Manajemen dan Jurnal Akuntansi Jurnal Abdi Insani Budimas : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Multicience INTELEKTIVA Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat (ABDIRA) Muria Jurnal Layanan Masyarakat Duta.com : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi Jurnal Bisnis Manajemen dan Akuntansi Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Teknologi Proceeding of International Conference Health, Science And Technology (ICOHETECH) Transformasi: Journal of Economics and Business Management Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Bisnis Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Bengawan :Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Sosial Simbiosis: Jurnal Integrasi Ilmu Sosial dan Politik Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan
Novemy Triyandari Nugroho
Universitas Duta Bangsa Surakarta
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From Zero Sales to Survival: Forecast-triggered Decision-making in Ecotourism MSMEs Purnomo, Singgih; Nurmalitasari, Nurmalitasari; Nurchim, Nurchim; Nugroho, Novemy Triyandari
Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Mas Said Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22515/shirkah.v11i1.1108

Abstract

Ecotourism micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) often face highly volatile demand characterized by frequent zero-sales days, strong seasonality, and exposure to external shocks. In such conditions, sustainability depends less on forecast accuracy and more on timely, low-cost operational decisions. This study examines how forecast-triggered decision-making supports short-run viability under intermittent, zero-heavy demand. Using manually recorded daily sales data from ecotourism MSMEs in Tawangmangu, Indonesia, a two-stage approach is applied that separates sale occurrence from sales magnitude. First, a logistic model estimates the probability of a sale to generate early-warning signals. Second, conditional sales magnitude is predicted to indicate readiness levels rather than precise revenue targets. Instead of focusing on accuracy alone, the analysis evaluates decision usefulness through time-ordered backtesting, emphasizing avoidable operating days and early-warning lead time. The results show that sale-occurrence signals effectively guide daily operating decisions, while magnitude forecasts support proportional readiness. The framework identifies a substantial share of avoidable operating days and provides several days of advance warning before prolonged zero-sales periods. This enables earlier cost control and capacity adjustment. The study contributes by offering a practical, human-in-the-loop decision framework that links demand uncertainty with adaptive actions using simple, manually recorded data.
Co-Authors Agus Suyatno Ali, Nur Aishah Mohd Antin Okfitasari, Antin Aurora, Cindy Nasywa Bangun Prajadi Cipto Utomo Chandra Halim Desy Anugrahen, Bernadheta Erlinawati, Mira Evi Yuliana, Margaretha Hasanah, Herliyani Indah Wahyu Utami Juniasari, Rosita Lestari, Retna Dewi Margaretha Evi Yuliana Muhtarom, Moh Novita Puspitasari Nur'aini, Citra Ayu Nurchim Nurchim Nurmalitasari Nurmalitasari Puspitasari, Novita Putri Intan Prastiwi Putri, Retno Karunia Rahayu Pancaningsih Ratna Puspita Indah Rudi Susanto Samsul Rosadi Singgih Purnomo Sundari , Sundari Sundari . Sundari Sundari Sundari Sundari Tri Djoko Santosa Umi Hanifah Wahyuningsih, Rita Widi Nugrahaningsih Wiji Lestari Wiji Lestari WIJI LESTARI WIJI LESTARI Wiji Lestari