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Journal : Parameter: Journal of Statistics

Forecasting the Consumer Price Index in Yogyakarta by Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Method Febriyanti, Syintya; Pradana, Wahyu Aji; Muhammad, Juliana Saputra; Widodo, Edy
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2021.v2.i1.15641

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator that is often used to measure the inflation rate in an area, or can be interpreted as a comparison between the prices of a commodity package from a group of goods or services consumed by households over a certain period time. The spread of COVID-19 throughout the world affects the economy in Indonesia, especially Yogyakarta. Forecasting CPI data during the COVID-19 pandemic has the benefit of being an illustration of data collection in the CPI of D.I Yogyakarta Province in the predicted period. This is useful as a comparison with the original data at the time of data collection and publication, as well as a consideration in making policies and improving the economy. Researchers use the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method to predict the CPI of Yogyakarta D.I Province, which aims to determine the best forecasting model and forecasting results. This method is rarely used in research on CPI data forecasting in Yogyakarta. The data in this study are monthly data from March 2020 to August 2021. The highest CPI in Yogyakarta occurred in August 2021 at 107.21 or 107.2, while the lowest CPI in Yogyakarta occurred in April 2020 at 105.15 or 105.2. The average CPI in Yogyakarta per month is 106.1. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value obtained from the DES method is 0.1308443%, so that the accuracy of the model is 99.869%. Forecasting with the DES method is quite well used in forecasting the CPI data of Yogyakarta in September 2020 - November 2021. The results of CPI forecasting in Yogyakarta using the DES method were 107.2602, 107.3104, and 107.3606 from September-November.
Co-Authors Abdul Halim Anshor Achmad Isya Alfassa Agustin, Widya Saputri Akhsan, Salafudin Al Al Farizi, Danial AL-Azkia, Muhammad Wildan Alfiah, Febiyanti Aliamsyah, Moh. Almadayani, Almadayani Amali, Amali Andani, Febria Pradita Prima Andri Firmansyah Anekawati, Fitri Anggreany, Anggun Nur ARDIANSYAH, FAISAL Arfian, A Arief Hadi Prasetyo, Arief Hadi Ariyani, Dwi Faridha Asyiah, Noor Asyiah, Rizkiana Avitariella, A Ayuningtyas, Rachel Aziza, Himelda Bahtiar, Reza Yusuf Bariklana, Muhammad Budiarto, Eko Choerunnisa, Riza Amelia Cusanti, Cusanti Desmitasari, Rosi Dewayanti, Arlinda Amalia Dewi Trisnawati Dewi, Diana Kusuma Dewi, Rosiana Rahma Diba, Sheila Farah Dodit Ardiatma Dzakiroh, Alliyah Febriana, Ella Tasia Febriyanti, Syintya Ferdiansyah, Febby Fikri, Bana Ali Fikry, Muhammad Dirga Ghaisani, Salwa Yudanti Hamid, Yudhistira Hasanah, Insani Hendri, Martius Hidayati, Irina Hijriyany, Meyla Hikmawan, Dimas Wahyu Hitayuwana, Nurul Huda, Tri Atmaja Ilma, Hafizah Ismayani, Indrianti Jati, Wahyu Pratama Kashi, Rahma Yuliati Khaeriyah, Rakhil Khaerunnisa, Muthia Khusna, Zulfa Aulia Kurnia Ramadhani, Kurnia Kusuma, Tihat Jaya Laksono, Arif Anjang Latifah, Evi Fitria Umi Latupono, Boki Lestari, Indri Fauzi Lestari, Ninik Kardinah Lutfi, Ahmad Zainul Majid, Annisa Maulana Manthovani, Andi Nurhanna Mardiyah, Meiga Isyatan Mardiyyah, Safwah Ayu Masthura, M Maulana, Donny Maulidaniar, Aulia Nurul Maulina, Gina Meimunah, M Mu'minin, Aisyah Ummi Muhammad, Juliana Saputra Muhammad, Shodiq Muhtajuddin Danny Muinah, Ummi Maftuhatul Nalurita, Wening Nawangsih, Ismasari Nilam Novita Sari Nisa, Annida Jahratun Novyantika, Rizky Dwi Nur Hidayah Nur Hikmah Nurfalah, Meylinda Dwi Nurhikmat, Triano Nurinayah, N Nursulistyo, Emy Dwi Panggol, Sri Arista Permatasari, Retno Pertiwi, Riezki Pradana, Sendhyka Cakra Pradana, Wahyu Aji Prasetyo, Adwi Guntur Prasetyo, Bagas Dwi Prawesti, Inna Prayoga, Dimas Prianda, Bayu Galih Pupung Purnamasari Purwanto Purwanto Putri, Naomighina Putri, Rahayu Kia Sandi Cahaya Putri, Selvina Sela Annisa Putri, Zarmeila Raharjo, Alifian Wahyu Rahmawan, Afandi Ahmad Rakhmalia, Riza Indriani Ramdhanti, Tiara Rini, Halimah Setio Safitrah, Ilham Saputra, Johan Saputri, Bening Sari, Cindy Fatika Sari, Rima Juridar Usfita Sartika, Indang Satria Permana, Muhammad Safri Septian, Yayan Dwi Serdawati, Septi Simanjuntak, Antonius Soesmono, Salma Sri Utami Sriwiji, Rina Subangkit, Andreas Sulhaerati, S Suriyani, Ade Irma Suwandi Suwandi Tusyakdiah, Halima Ulinnuha, Muhammad Utami, Pertiwi Bekti Wahyu Hadikristanto Wicaksono, Bima Yudha Widi, Tegar Anugrah Widiawati, Ika Fitia Wirdaniyati, Sri Siska Wiyanto - Yadin, Muhammad Atma Yahya, Adiba Yuan Badrianto Yubinas, Febritista Yuniarti, Mazna Yusnandar, Y Zahra , Qolbiyatus Syifa Az