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All Journal Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Parameter: Journal of Statistics Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Smart Society: Community Service and Empowerment Journal Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa RENATA Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Kita Semua Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics Jurnal KALANDRA Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya TeknoKreatif: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Ayu Sofia
Actuarial Science Study Program, Sumatera Institute Of Technology, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA ANGKA TIDAK SEKOLAH (ATS), TINGKAT KEMISKINAN, DAN ANGKA MELEK HURUF (AMH) DENGAN BIPLOT Linda Rassiyanti; Ayu Sofia; Rizka Pitri
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memperdalam analisis tentang hubungan antara pendidikan, literasi, dan kemiskinan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode analisis biplot yang merupakan teknik statistik deskriptif yang memungkinkan penyajian visual simultan dari objek pengamatan dan variabel dalam ruang dua dimensi. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah (RLS), Angka Melek Huruf (AMH), dan Persentase Orang Miskin. Tiap variabel dilakukan analisis desktiptif untuk mengetahui sebaran datanya, lalu selanjutnya dilakukan analisis biplot, dan menarik kesimpulan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa RLS dan AMH memiliki hubungan yang kuat dengan tingkat kemiskinan (persentase orang miskin). Tingkat pendidikan yang lebih tinggi secara umum berkorelasi dengan tingkat kemiskinan yang lebih rendah. Provinsi DKI Jakarta dan Kep. Riau memiliki keberhasilan dalam taraf pendidikan yang tinggi dan kemiskinan rendah, sedangkan Provinsi Papua Pegunungan dan Nusa Tenggara Timur masih memerlukan perhatian untuk mengurangi kemiskinan dan meningkatkan taraf pendidikan. Provinsi Papua Pegunungan dan Papua Tengah terlihat jauh dari kelompok lainnya, menunjukkan karakteristik yang unik, seperti kemiskinan sangat tinggi dan pendidikan sangat rendah.
Forecasting International Tourist Arrivals to Indonesia Using LSTM: Post-Pandemic Analysis for 2024-2025 Ayu Sofia; Dien, Zulfanita; Erda, Gustriza
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.7309

Abstract

As Indonesia's main foreign exchange contributor, the tourism sector experienced significant dynamics after the COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by a sharp decline in the number of foreign tourists during the pandemic and consistent recovery in the post-pandemic period. This study aims to predict the number of foreign tourists to Indonesia from September 2024 to August 2025 using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. The LSTM model is optimized with an 80:20 data split for training testing and uses optimal parameters, namely Learning Rate 0.005, Batch Size 64, Optimizer Adam, and Epoch 200. The prediction results show an increase in the number of tourists to a peak of 1,390,564 in November 2024, followed by a gradual decline to 987,970 in August 2025, with an accuracy level indicated by a MAPE value of 14.39%
FAKTOR –FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI RASIO PROFITABILITAS PERUSAHAAN ASURANSI UMUM DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2018 –2022 MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI PANEL Simarmata, Gabriel Camoranesa; Sofia, Ayu; Andirasdini, Indah Gumala
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv3i02pp155-168

Abstract

Analisis kinerja keuangan memberikan gambaran hasil bisnis perusahaan pada suatu periode. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi Return on Assets (ROA) dan Return on Equity (ROE) perusahaan asuransi umum di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dari 2018 hingga 2022 denganregresi panel. Data diambil dari idx.co.id dan emiten.kontan.co.id. Penelitian ini menghasilkandua model, dengan Variabelbebas dan terikat yang berbeda, yang menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan Variabelterhadap ROA dan ROE. Persamaan model ROA yang didapat adalah 푅푂퐴푖,푡=훼푖+0.0053(퐶푅)푖,푡+0.0118(푇퐴푇푂)푖,푡−0.0068(퐷퐸푅)푖,푡+0.0001(퐸푃푆)푖,푡. Sedangkan, persamaan model ROE adalah, 푅푂퐸푖,푡=훼푖+0.0030(퐶푅)푖,푡−0.0137(푇퐴푇푂)푖,푡+0.1999(퐷퐴푅)푖,푡+0.2016(푁푃푀)푖,푡. Dalam persamaan ROA menunjukkan hanya Variabel EPS yang signifikan secara parsial. Sementara itu, dalam persamaan ROE menunjukkan VariabelDAR dan NPM signifikan secara parsial dalam memengaruhi ROE.
Pelatihan Olah Data dan Visualisasi Data Statistik dalam Peningkatan Kompetensi Perangkat Desa Badran Sari, Lampung Selatan Sofia, Ayu; Lestari, Fuji; Rivai, Muklas; andirasdini, indah Gumala; Julianty, Dila Tirta
TeknoKreatif: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Vol 5 No 1 (2025): TEKNOKREATIF : Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Volume 5 No 1
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LP2M), Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Lampung, Indonesia.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35472/teknokreatif.v5i1.1873

Abstract

The use of data processing skills is something that is very important in various fields. The data processing process can use various applications, one of which is the number/data processing application which is commonly known as the Ms. Excel application. Ms. Excel is a software program that allows users to process and calculate numerical data so that calculations and reading data are no longer done manually. The problem with partners is the lack of competence of village officials regarding the use of technology in processing village data. Based on the problems faced by partners, the PkM team offers a solution, namely providing training in processing and analyzing statistical data using Ms. Excel which aims to help village officials to be able to process data and be able to visualize the data into images/graphs that are more attractive to the community so that able to improve the quality of data processing contained in village officials.
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY METHOD FOR FORECASTING THE STOCK RETURN OF PT LIPPO GENERAL INSURANCE TBK Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul; Sartono, Bagus; Sofia, Ayu
VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Vol 7 No 2 (2025): VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Publisher : Statistics Study Programme, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/variancevol7iss2page123-134

Abstract

The Indonesian capital market is one of the investment destinations for investors from developed countries. The development of Indonesia's economic conditions is considered good for investors in investing their funds. Financial sector shares are one of the sectors that has experienced development throughout this year. One of the seven stocks showing good growth is PT Lippo General Insurance Tbk (LPGI). The important thing that is the main concern of investors is the level of yield or return from a stock. Based on this, stock return forecasting analysis can be important information for investors. This research uses the GARCH method to forecast LPGI stock returns. The analysis results show that the best model for LPGI stock returns is ARIMA (2,0,0) GARCH (1,1) with a very small return value and a negative sign. Thus, these results provide information that the forecasting period is not the right time for investors to buy LPGI shares. However, investors who have bought LPGI shares and made a profit are advised to sell LPGI shares before the forecast period. The empirical evidence from this study demonstrates that the GARCH model can effectively capture the volatility pattern of LPGI stock returns in n financial market. This finding supports the application of GARCH in modeling return fluctuations in emerging markets.
Pelatihan Pembuatan Laporan Keuangan Pelaku Usaha Mikro, Kecil, Dan Menengah (UMKM) Di Desa Badran Sari Julianty, Dila Tirta; Listiani, Amalia; Lestari, Fuji; Sofia, Ayu; Rivai, Muklas; Mahrani, Dwi; Fitriawati, Andi
RENATA: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Kita Semua Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): Renata - Desember 2025
Publisher : PT Berkah Tematik Mandiri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61124/1.renata.140

Abstract

Hingga saat ini terdapat sekitar 15 Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah yang ada di Desa Badran Sari. Kegiatan usaha yang dilakukan oleh UMKM tidak terlepas dari transaksi keuangan baik transaksi masuk maupun keluar. Apabila transaksi tersebut diolah dengan baik maka dapat menghasilkan laporan keuangan yang tepat untuk berbagai periode waktu. Dengan adanya laporan keuangan yang tepat, maka bisa didapatkan informasi yang tepat mengenai kondisi keuangan dari suatu usaha sehingga bisa membuat keputusan yang tepat untuk masa yang akan datang. Dengan rendahnya kemampuan masyarakat desa dalam mengolah informasi sehingga menjadikan para pelaku UMKM tidak dapat memanfaat informasi keuangan yang mereka miliki sebagai dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan dan pengembangan usahanya. Oleh karena itu perlu diadakannnya suatu pelatihan terkait pembuatan laporan keuangan untuk meningkatkan kemampuan masyarakat Desa Badran Sari yang memiliki UMKM sehingga tercapainya masyarakat informasi dan berbasi pengetahuan. Hal ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan ukuran usaha UMKM dan meningkatkan kegiatan perekonomian di Desa Badran Sari, Kecamatan Punggur, Kabupaten Lampung Tengah. Setelah dilaksanakannya pelatihan mengenai penyusunan laporan keuangan, jumlah peserta yang memiliki tingkat pemahaman rendah mengalami penurunan dari semula 68,18% menjadi 36,36% dan jumlah responden dengan tingkat pemahaman sedang mengalami peningkatan lebih dari dua kali lipat dari semula 27,27% menjadi 59,09%
Pelatihan Pemanfaatan Looker Studio dalam Analisis Data dan Dashboard Statistik bagi Peningkatan Kompetensi Siswa SMKS Nurul Huda Pringsewu Rosni; Mahrani, Dwi; Fitriawati , Andi; Sofia, Ayu; Yulita, Tiara; Irawan, Agus; Mt, Ma’rufah Hayati; Mahkya, Dani Al; Nasrullah; Simanjuntak, Erica Grace; Irfan, Miftahul; Madonna, Nora; Alfian, Muhammad Nuril; Siregar, Abian Avisena; Lestari, Yushinta Cahya
KALANDRA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 4 No 6 (2025): November
Publisher : Yayasan Kajian Riset Dan Pengembangan Radisi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55266/jurnalkalandra.v4i6.605

Abstract

This Community Service (PkM) program aims to enhance students’ competencies in data analysis and statistical dashboard management through the utilization of the Looker Studio application. The training was conducted at SMKS Nurul Huda Pringsewu, involving students as participants. The training methods included lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on practice in processing data and presenting it in the form of interactive dashboards. The results of the program showed that students were able to understand the basic concepts of data exploration, the purpose of data visualization, and the use of key features in Looker Studio. In addition, students’ skills in selecting appropriate chart types according to analytical needs improved significantly. Based on the satisfaction survey, most participants rated the activity as very satisfactory (63%) and satisfactory (16%), although a small proportion expressed dissatisfaction (16%) or were not satisfied (5%). Overall, this PkM activity successfully contributed to improving students’ data literacy and digital skills, which are expected to support them in facing both academic challenges and the demands of a data-driven workforce
Spatial Analysis of the Number of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan Participants using Geographically Weighted Panel Regression Sofia, Ayu; Zul’aina, Restu Apriani; Djuraidah, Anik; Pitri, Rizka
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Desimal
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v9i1.30408

Abstract

Uneven participation in employment-based social protection remains a major challenge in decentralized labor markets where regional economic structures, labor informality, and institutional capacity vary substantially across locations. Conventional panel regression and standard spatial econometric models generally assume homogeneous relationships across regions, potentially obscuring localized determinants of participation behavior. This study examines spatially varying determinants of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan participation in South Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, using Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR) applied to panel data from thirteen districts and cities during 2018–2022. The GWPR approach is employed because it allows regression coefficients to vary across space and time, enabling the identification of spatial nonstationarity that cannot be captured by global panel models. The results reveal clear spatial heterogeneity in participation dynamics. The number of registered companies emerges as the most consistent determinant, showing statistically significant positive effects across all districts with coefficients ranging from 0.099 to 0.143. In contrast, informal worker income demonstrates localized negative effects in several districts (−0.104 to −0.088), suggesting substitution between informal earnings and participation in formal protection schemes. Average years of schooling shows strong positive effects in selected regions (0.554–0.699), indicating the importance of human capital in increasing social insurance awareness and participation. Model adequacy testing further confirms that the GWPR specification provides a better representation of spatial variation than the global panel model.
Empowering the Future: AI-Based Website Development Training to Boost High School Students' Creativity and Digital Skills Luluk Muthoharoh; Yuliana Yuliana; Linda Rassiyanti; Ade Lailani; Ayu Sofia; Tiara Yulita; Dharu Cahyoaji Sasongko; Khairunnisa Maharani; Aditya Rahman
Smart Society Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Smart Society
Publisher : FOUNDAE (Foundation of Advanced Education)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58524/smartsociety.v5i1.658

Abstract

In the rapidly evolving digital era, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become one of the key technologies playing a significant role in various fields, including website development. AI-based website development training is a strategic step to enhance the skills and creativity of the younger generation in the era of digitalization. This activity was conducted at SMA Al Huda, South Lampung, with the aim of equipping students with an understanding of basic concepts, steps for creating websites, and how AI can be utilized to enhance creativity in the digital world. The methods used included interactive presentations, demonstrations, hands-on practice, and discussions. The activity also assessed students' knowledge before and after the training through an interactive quiz using Quizizz. The results of the study showed a significant improvement in students' understanding of AI-based website development. In conclusion, this training program was effective in enhancing students' skills and creativity in the digitalization world, particularly in creating AI-based websites
Modelling Extreme Stock Market Risk with Peaks Over Threshold-Value at Risk and APARCH Specifications Aulia Khairani Hutabarat; Ayu Sofia; Muklas Rivai
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 02 (June 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/hcm5vr15

Abstract

The capital market plays an important role in a country's economy. Through the capital market, investors can also grow their wealth by investing in stocks, bonds, or other instruments. Investing in stocks in the capital market has high profit potential, but also carries significant volatility risks. One company that experienced significant volatility was PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk., as in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic caused extreme volatility in global and local markets. Therefore, risk management is necessary to minimize risks using the Value at Risk method.This study also aims to analyze the risk of investing in PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. shares using the VaR method with APARCH modeling and the POT approach. The data used are daily closing prices from March 2020 to June 2025. The results show that the best model for forecasting is APARCH(1,1) with a better forecasting accuracy than the naive forecast, as indicated by the MASE value of 0,6131. The VaR estimate indicates that the longer the forecasting period and the higher the confidence level used, the higher the VaR value. This indicates that the extreme risk is higher for the next ten periods. The validity test (backtesting) also confirms that the VaR estimation results are accurate for the long term at a significance level of 1%, 5% and 10%.
Co-Authors Ade Lailani Aditya Rahman Agus Irawan Agus Irawan Alfian, Muhammad Nuril Aliem, Dien Manarul Andi Fitriawati Andi Fitriawati Anik Djuraidah Aulia Khairani Hutabarat Azzanina, Nanda Bagus Sartono Baiti, Putri Isnaini Cahyaning Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul Berliana Ratam, Aldila Nur Indah Dani Al Mahkya Dani Al Mahkya Dewi, Karina Sylfia Dharu Cahyoaji Sasongko Dien, Zulfanita Dila Tirta Julianty Dwi Mahrani Erica Grace Simanjuntak Fitriawati , Andi Fuji Lestari Gustina K. S, Annisa Hevita Gustriza Erda Indah Gumala Andirasdini Irfan, Miftahul Irwan, Sri Efrinita Josepa , Tiffany Audrey Khairunnisa Maharani Lestari, Yushinta Cahya Linda Rassiyanti Linda Rassiyanti Linda Rassiyanti Listiani, Amalia Luluk Muthoharoh Madonna, Nora Marisa Marisa Ma’rufah Hayati Miftahul Irfan Miftha Ulya Nazima Mt, Ma’rufah Hayati Muklas Rivai Muklas Rivai Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasrullah Nora Madonna Nurfitra Pitri, Rizka Rivai, Muklas Rizka Pitri Rizka Pitri Rosni Rosni Rosni, Rosni Siahaan, Marco Marolop Simarmata, Gabriel Camoranesa Siregar, Abian Avisena Siswanto Siswanto Theo Markus Tiara Yulita Yuliana Yuliana Yulita, Tiara Zul’aina, Restu Apriani