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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND APPLIED ENGINEERING Indonesian Journal of Applied Informatics Jurnal Teknologi Terpadu Industri Inovatif : Jurnal Teknik Industri Jurnal Ilmiah ILKOMINFO - Ilmu Komputer & Informatika Jurnal Mnemonic JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika) SKANIKA: Sistem Komputer dan Teknik Informatika Jurnal Informatika dan Teknologi Komputer ( J-ICOM) ARMATUR : Artikel Teknik Mesin dan Manufaktur Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) The Journal of Enhanced Studies in Informatics and Computer Applications E-Amal: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Sentot Achmadi
Institut Teknologi Nasional Malang
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Automotive Engineering Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences Other

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Prediction of Unemployment Rates in East Java Region Using Multiple Linear Regression Method Muhammad Farhan Alauddin; Sentot Achmadi; Joseph Dedy Irawan
Journal of Enhanced Studies in Informatics and Computer Applications Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): JESICA Vol. 2 No. 1 2025
Publisher : Institut Teknologi, Sains, dan Kesehatan RS.DR. Soepraoen Kesdam V/BRW

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47794/jesica.v2i1.20

Abstract

Unemployment is a major problem for developing countries, including Indonesia. The average unemployment rate in East Java is 5.202 percent from 2004 to 2023, according to data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). These figures show that unemployment is still a major problem for local governments, despite changes. The purpose of this study is to create an application that can predict the number of unemployed in the future. The method used is multiple linear regression where this method was chosen because it can show how the year and labor force participation rate, which are two independent variables, correlate with the unemployment rate as the dependent variable. The data used comes from BPS and covers 19 years. This prediction model is integrated into a web-based platform to make the research results easier to access and use. This platform will display data and analysis results interactively, so that it can be used by local governments, academics, and other individuals looking for information about unemployment. The results of the study show that the regression model created is quite accurate. Based on the results of testing that has been carried out on the existing features, the system has displayed the appropriate output.
Analisis Pengembangan Lokasi Apartemen Menggunakan Analytic Hierarchy Process berbasis Sistem Informasi Geografis Dedy Kurnia Sunaryo; Endro Yuwono; Sentot Achmadi; Tiara DE; Geoghalvin Almeriq Audolfy Caecarma
Jurnal Informatika dan Teknologi Komputer (J-ICOM) Vol 6 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Informatika dan Teknologi Komputer ( J-ICOM)
Publisher : E-Jurnal Universitas Samudra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55377/j-icom.v6i1.8838

Abstract

East Java has Malang City as the second-largest city. Common problems that occur in big cities in Indonesia are overcrowding and increasingly limited land. The solution to this problem is to develop vertical housing types such as apartments and flats. The need for new apartment development as a response to high public demand, by creating an analytical hierarchy process and a system for apartment developers, will assist apartment developers in making decisions. With AHP, you can determine the suitability of the apartment construction location with supporting parameters, namely slope maps, road network accessibility maps, existing land use maps, spatial pattern maps, distance maps to public facilities, and water availability maps. The results of the analysis of the suitability of apartment development in the city of Malang using AHP and GIS are then studied for the suitability of land use against the RTRW so that the implementation and development of apartment development in the city of Malang are according to plan. So that decision-making can be relevant and make the city of Malang an ideal city.
Prediksi Persediaan Penjualan Kacamata Pada Optik XYZ Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Agnus Dei Dharma Prawira; Sentot Achmadi; Agung Panji Sasmito
IJAI (Indonesian Journal of Applied Informatics) Vol 9, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ijai.v9i2.98396

Abstract

Abstrak : Perkembangan pesat dari teknologi membawa dampak yang positif maupun negatif bagi masyarakat, salah satu dampak negatif tersebut adalah penurunan daya penglihatan akibat radiasi sinar biru dari perangkat elektronik yang mengakibatkan penggunaan kacamata menjadi sesuatu yang penting. Hal tersebut membuat industri optik, seperti Optik XYZ yang berada di Kota Malang mengalami perkembangan yang sangat signifikan beriringan dengan kepedulian masyarakat akan kesehatan mata. Namun Optik XYZ dihadapi dengan tantangan dalam melakukan prediksi penjualan karena tidak ada sistem yang memadai, mengakibatkan kekurangan dan kelebihan pada persediaan penjualan, hal tersebut berdampak pada tingkat kepuasan pelanggan dan manajemen modal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun sistem prediksi persediaan penjualan dengan menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) berdasarkan data penjualan historis pada 1 Januari 2022 sampai dengan 31 Oktober 2024. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa sistem yang dibangun mampu meramalkan penjualan produk per hari dengan alpha optimal yaitu 0,1 berdasarkan nilai Mean Absolute Error (MAE) terkecil yaitu sebesar 0,915 untuk produk frame dengan nilai prediksi 1. Pada sistem yang dibangun juga telah dilakukan pengujian kompatibilitas, blackbox, dan pengguna dimana menghasilkan sistem dapat dijalankan tanpa kendala pada Safari, Google Chrome, dan Mozila Firefox====================================================Abstract : The rapid development of technology has both positive and negative impacts on society, one of the negative impacts is decreased vision due to blue light radiation from electronic devices which makes the use of glasses something important. This makes the optical industry, such as Optik XYZ in Malang City, experience very significant development along with public concern for eye health. However, Optik XYZ is faced with challenges in making sales predictions because there is no adequate system, resulting in shortages and excesses in sales inventory, this has an impact on customer satisfaction levels and capital management. This study aims to build a sales inventory prediction system using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method based on historical sales data from January 1, 2022 to October 31, 2024. The results of this study indicate that the system built is able to predict product sales per day with an optimal alpha of 0.1 based on the smallest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) value of 0.915 for frame products with a prediction value of 1. Compatibility, blackbox, and user testing have also been carried out on the system built, which results in the system being able to run without problems on Safari, Google Chrome, and Mozilla Firefox.
Implementasi Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Produk Makanan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web (Studi Kasus: Rumah Makan Kedai Mily, Banyuwangi) Stefhanny Marshanda Salsabella; Sentot Achmadi; Ali Mahmudi
Jurnal Ilmiah ILKOMINFO - Ilmu Komputer & Informatika Vol 9, No 1 (2026): Januari
Publisher : Akademi Ilmu Komputer Ternate

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47324/ilkominfo.v9i1.413

Abstract

Abstrak: Pesatnya perkembangan usaha kuliner membuat Kedai Mily perlu memiliki alat bantu untuk memperkirakan jumlah penjualan agar stok dan kegiatan operasional dapat dikelola dengan lebih baik. Penelitian ini merancang sebuah sistem berbasis web untuk melakukan estimasi penjualan menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), karena metode ini mampu membaca pola data penjualan yang menunjukkan tren. Sistem dibangun menggunakan framework Laravel dan dilengkapi fitur pengolahan data menu, transaksi, penjualan, serta proses peramalan. Pengujian dilakukan menggunakan teknik black-box untuk memverifikasi bahwa setiap fitur aplikasi beroperasi sesuai rancangan. Berdasarkan temuan yang diperoleh perhitungan menggunakan nilai alpha 0,1, diperoleh Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 20,46%, yang menandakan bahwa ketepatan hasil peramalannya masih berada pada tingkat yang dapat diterima. Sistem ini terbukti membantu Kedai Mily dalam menyajikan data penjualan secara lebih terstruktur, meminimalkan kesalahan pencatatan manual, serta mendukung pengambilan keputusan operasional secara lebih baik.Kata kunci: peramalan penjualan, double exponential smoothing, sistem web, Kedai Mily, MAPEAbstract: The rapid growth of the culinary industry requires Kedai Mily to have a reliable tool for estimating sales quantities so that stock management and operational activities can be handled more efficiently. This study designs a web-based system for predicting sales using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method, which is suitable for identifying trend patterns in historical sales data. The system is developed using the Laravel framework and equipped with features for managing menu data, transactions, sales records, and the forecasting process. System evaluation is carried out using the black-box testing technique to ensure that all functionalities operate according to the intended design. Based on the results obtained using an alpha value of 0.1, the forecasting process produces a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 20.46%, indicating that the prediction accuracy remains within an acceptable range. The system supports Kedai Mily by presenting sales information in a more organized manner, reducing manual recording errors, and assisting in operational decision-making.Keywords: sales forecasting, double exponential smoothing, web-based system, Kedai Mily, MAPE
ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE DAN TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM PERAMALAN PERJALANAN WISATAWAN JAWA TIMUR Simamora, Octaryo; Achmadi, Sentot; Auliasari, Karina
Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) Vol 8 No 1 (2026): EDISI 27
Publisher : Program Studi Informatika Universitas Teknologi Sumbawa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51401/jinteks.v8i1.6960

Abstract

Sektor pariwisata memberikan peran penting terhadap ekonomi lokal khususnya pada daerah Jawa Timur, terlebih daerah ini terdapat 38 kabupaten/kota yang kaya akan potensi wisata. Peningkatan jumlah perjalanan wisatawan lokal yang tidak menentu setiap tahunnya menjadikan teknik peramalan perlu disusun guna mengantisipasi pergeseran pola yang terjadi secara dinamis. Penelitian ini disusun untuk membangun sebuah sistem peramalan jumlah perjalanan wisatawan domestik berbasis web menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing dan membandingkannya dengan pendekatan peramalan Holt (Double Exponential Smoothing). Sistem ini dirancang agar pengguna dapat menetapkan interval waktu (bulan dan tahun) sesuai dengan kebutuhan analisis. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian terhadap data wisatawan di lima kabupaten (Banyuwangi, Blitar, Bojonegoro, Gresik, dan Kediri), metode TES menunjukkan tingkat akurasi lebih tinggi dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 17,17%, sedangkan metode DES sebesar 20,78%. Hal ini menunjukkan adanya peningkatan akurasi sebesar 3,61% dengan metode TES. Sistem ininjuga mampu menghasilkan proses peramalan secara otomatis dan interaktif. Hasil pennelitian ini memberikan kontribusi praktis bagi pemerintah daerah, dan pelaku industri pariwisata dalam mendukung pengambilan keputusan berbasis data, serta menjadi dasar pengembangan sistem peramalan yang lebih adaptif di masa mendatang.
SISTEM ESTIMASI BIAYA PROYEK KONSTRUKSI BERBASIS WEB DENGAN RANDOM FOREST Pandensolang, Wisando Berlian; Ahmad Fahrudi Setiawan; Sentot Achmadi
Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) Vol 8 No 1 (2026): EDISI 27
Publisher : Program Studi Informatika Universitas Teknologi Sumbawa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51401/jinteks.v8i1.6972

Abstract

Estimasi biaya yang akurat pada tahap awal proyek konstruksi industri sangat penting untuk mendukung keputusan tender, namun di PT Sumbawa Indah Permai proses ini masih dilakukan secara manual berbasis RAB sehingga memerlukan waktu lama dan sangat bergantung pada pengalaman estimator. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan sistem estimasi biaya proyek konstruksi berbasis web yang mengintegrasikan model Random Forest Regression dengan data historis RAB perusahaan. Data RAB diolah melalui pembersihan, rekayasa fitur numerik, kategorikal, dan teks deskripsi menggunakan TF-IDF, serta transformasi logaritmik pada variabel target Total_Harga dengan fungsi log1p dan expm1. Model dilatih menggunakan skema hold-out dan RandomizedSearchCV dengan K-Fold, kemudian diintegrasikan ke dalam aplikasi web Django. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan model mampu mencapai nilai R² 0,9013, MAE Rp 5.133.872,83, RMSE Rp 23.206.060,01, dan MAPE 10,46% pada data uji. Sistem yang dihasilkan dapat memberikan estimasi biaya awal secara cepat, konsisten, dan mendukung pengambilan keputusan pada proses tender.
RANCANG BANGUN SISTEM PERAMALAN PENJUALAN ES KRIM DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (STUDI KASUS :CV ALDY ABADI JAYA, MUARA WAHAU) Viramadita Arthamia Putri; Sentot Achmadi; Ali Mahmudi
SKANIKA: Sistem Komputer dan Teknik Informatika Vol 9 No 1 (2026): Jurnal SKANIKA Januari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Budi Luhur

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36080/skanika.v9i1.3618

Abstract

The ice cream sales agent CV Aldy Abadi Jaya in Muara Wahau faces challenges in forecasting daily fluctuating ice cream demand. Inaccurate stock estimation often leads to excess or shortage of inventory, requiring an effective strategy to balance supply and demand. This study aims to design and develop a web-based sales forecasting system using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method. This method was chosen because it can provide accurate predictions for data with a trend pattern. The research utilizes historical sales data of ice cream from CV Aldy Abadi Jaya. The system was developed using the Laravel framework and MySQL database. It automatically performs sales forecasting calculations and displays the results through an interactive dashboard that helps users interpret prediction outcomes easily. The results show an accuracy level and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 13,83%, indicating that the Double Exponential Smoothing method can generate reliable forecasts for future sales. The developed system is expected to help the company plan stock more effectively, reduce the risk of losses, and improve efficiency in the ice cream distribution process..
Co-Authors Abbas Al Munyawi, Moch. Ibnu Abi, Roland Marvelous Abiyyu, Ivan Farhan Ade Putra Adi Putra, Bagus Adrian Rahma Chiesa, Diffa Agnus Dei Dharma Prawira Agung Laksono, Rachmad Agung Panji Sasmito Ahmad Fahrudi Setiawan AHMAD FAISOL Alawiyah, Rosiedatun Ali Mahmudi Ali Mahmudi Ali Mashudi, Rafiu Ali Mokhtar Amerta Nalle, Merpati vortuna Andinusa Rahmandhika Andre Afni A F Angesti Fitri, Anggie Anggiana Nayang Gita Anjelina Tambunan, Silva Apuilino Iman Seno Aji, Farell Ariwibisono Ariwibisono, F. X. Ariwibisono, FX Atha Syandana, Muchammad Arkan Bening Abimanyu, Hyan Cahya Kusuma, Firdaus Dwi Deddy Rudhistiar Dedy Kurnia Sunaryo Dwi Saputra, Eri Eka Puji Lestari Endro Yuwono Erlangga Prasetya, Imam Everaldo, David Fahrudi Setiawan, Ahmad Fajar Akbar Fat al Ghozali, Mohamad Febriana Santi Wahyuni Febrianto, Andy Fikri, Rizal Firdanu, Rizha Firstiano, Ivo Geoghalvin Almeriq Audolfy Caecarma Ghaniyyu Muqsit, Diagy Ghozy, Ahmad Hani Zulfia Zahro Holifah, Musdholi Ilham, Mohammad Akbar Joseph Dedy Irawan Jufani, Muh. Nifky Kadek Dinda Oktavianty Karina Auliasari Khafidh Aulia, Muhammad Kurniawan, Andrian Lailiyah, Ismi Maharani, Luthfia Rizqi Mahudi, Ali Mala Olhang, Maria Mega Maulidi Molyono, Wildan Mira Orisa Missa, Dionisius Miswanto MUFIDAH, LAILATUL Muhammad Farhan Alauddin Mustika Mustika Nickola Mauregar, Gilbert Novika Maharani, Lola Nur Hidayanti, Rahmah Nurlaily Vendyansyah Nyoman Krismonda W Pandensolang, Wisando Berlian Pradana Hartinningrum, Eka Pratama, Ricky Adytya Pratama, Sulton Ghousi Rahmadian Basuki, Demes Ramadhan, Naufalamim Renaldi Primaswara Prasetya Rizky, Arya Rodyah Wati, Fatimah Sahal, Muhammad Yazid Abu Sari, Karina Aulia Shalom Wirawan, Lucas Simamora, Octaryo Stefhanny Marshanda Salsabella Suliati Suliati Sumanto Sumanto Sumanto Sumanto Sumanto Suryo Adi Wibowo Syahrul Fikri I M Thomas Priyasmanu Tiara DE Viramadita Arthamia Putri Wahyu Rifaldi, Khisan Ihza Weka Prakosa Adi, Nitis Wibisono, F.X Ari Widyanto Pratama, Dody Xaverius Ariwibisono, Franciscus Xaverius Ariwibisono, Fransiskus Yosep Agus Pranoto Zulfan Najib, Ahmad Zulfia Zahro’, Hani