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Journal : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

MODEL VEKTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE UNTUK PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI INDRAMAYU (Vector Autoregressive Model for Forecast Rainfall In Indramayu ) Dewi Retno Sari Saputro; Aji Hamim Wigena; Anik Djuraidah
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 16 No. 2 (2011)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

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Abstract

There  are  three  regions  of  rainfall  that  has  been  formed,  each  rainfall  regions has a variety of homogeneous and there is a correlation between rainfall stations. In  each  region  can  be determined  rainfall  prediction  model simultaneously.  The model  is  a  model  of  Vector Autoregressive  (VAR)  which  is  an extension  of  the autoregressive  model  (AR).  Based  on  this  research,  we  can  determine  the  VAR model by lag 1 or VAR (1) for each region. Region 1 (Anjatan and Sumurwatu), region  2  (Salamdarma  and  Gantar)  and  region  3  (Kedokan  Bunder  and Sudimampir), each of which has a Root Mean Square Error Prediction (RMSEP) of  3.93;  5:03;  4:48;  5.3;  2:18  and  3:53.  Correlation  value  of  observations  with predictions of rainfall respectively, 0.71; 0.62; 0:57; 0:59; 0.89, and 0.91.  Keywords: AR, VAR, RMSEP, correlation
Co-Authors Ade Susanti Adhitama, Ria Puan Adzakie, Haabi Luckmanoor Agung Nugroho, Tri Wahyu Agung Nugroho, Tri Wahyu Ahmad Faqihi, Ahmad Aji Hamim Wigena Al Barra, Andre Fajry Alfa Lutfiananda, Immas Metika Anik Djuraidah Antoni Wibowo Antoni Wibowo Ariati, Lia Arif Rahman Arrazaq, Khamid Muhammad Astutiningsih, Tiyas ‘Aini, Addin Zuhrotul Baharum, Aslina Budi Usodo Budi Usodo BUDIYONO Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono Budiyono, Budiyono Cahyono, Heri Christy, Alexander Yonathan Dewi, Noviana Sukma Doni Susanto dwi hidayati Gustiasih, Restuning Harun Al Rasyid Heri Cahyono Ikawati, Nur Ikhsan Abdul Latif Indriati, Sela Putri Joko Domas, Joko Kananta, Ghaitsa Shafa Cinta Khairina, Fadiah Khamsatul Faizati, Khamsatul Khayati, Fitrotul Khomariah, Nurul Kiki Riska Ayu Kurniawati, Kiki Riska Ayu Kusuma, Nunung Fajar Kusumo, Fahri Aimar M Mardiyana, M Maharani, Swasti Marchamah Ulfa, Marchamah Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana Mardiyana, Mardiyana Mardiyana, Mardiyana Muhamad Safa’udin, Muhamad Muslikhah, Muslikhah Musmiratul Uyun Musta'in, Ghufron Nanang Nabhar Fakhri Auliya, Nanang Nabhar Nanda Noor Fadjrin, Nanda Noor Ningrum, Hanifah Listya Ni’am, Dafi’ Ichsani Aysar Nughthoh Arfawi Kurdhi, Nughthoh Arfawi Nugroho Arif Sudibyo Nurul Khairiatin Nida Pambudi, Pangesti Arum Paryatun, Suji Paryatun, Suji Pradipta Annurwanda, Pradipta Prasetyo, Heri Pratama, Rizcka Indah Hani Prihastini Oktasari Putri Primasari, Dessy Marlinda Purnami Widyaningsih Purwaningsih, Tri Purwaningsih, Tri Putera Khano, Muhammad Nazhif Abda Putri, Diah Purwaning Putri, Matin Enggar Rahman, Arif Ramadhanti, Fajhria Budi Ririn Setyowati Riyadi Riyadi Riyansyah, Husnun Nur Ghiffari Putri Rizky Anggar Kusuma Wardani Safa’udin, Muhamad Santika, Putri Aura Sena, Arya Bima Setiyowati, Ririn Sidiq, Krisna Sujadi, Imam Sulistyaningsih Sulistyaningsih Suprapto, Suprapto Suryani, S Susanti, Ika Sutanto Sutanto Sutanto sutanto sutanto Tambunan, Nicolas Ray Amarco Tanjung, Andjani Ayu Cahaya Ummu Salamah Utami, Dwi Sari Utin Desy Susiaty Wahyu, Nugroho Lambang Wibowo, Gusti Ngurah Adhi Widiyaningsih, Purnami Winarno, Bowo YAFITA ARFINA MUTI Yekti Widyaningsih Yumaroh, Siti Roqhilu Zaidah Nurul Hasanah