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Sensitivity and Stability Analysis of a SEIR Epidemic Model with Information Robiatul Witari Wilda; Trisilowati Trisilowati; Moch. Aruman Imron
The Journal of Experimental Life Science Vol. 9 No. 1 (2019)
Publisher : Postgraduate School, Universitas Brawijaya

In this paper, the construction and stability analysis of a SEIR epidemic model with information are discussed. This model contains information about how to prevent the spread of infectious diseases which is transmitted by infected individuals to susceptible individuals. Furthermore, the dynamical analysis of the model which includes determination of equilibrium points terms of existence, stability analysis of the equilibrium points and sensitivity analysis are observed. Local stability of the equilibrium point is determined by linearizing the system around the equilibrium point and checking for the eigenvalue sign of Jacobian matrix at each equilibrium point. Sensitivity analysis is performed by using a sensitivity index to measure the relative change of basic reproduction number on each parameter. Based on the analysis result, there are two equilibrium points namely disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. The disease-free equilibrium point always exists and is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. Moreover, the endemic equilibrium point exists and is locally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. From sensitivity analysis, it is found that the rate of mortality is the most sensitive parameter and the least sensitive parameter is the rate of exposed individual becomes infected individual. Finally, numerical simulation is conducted to support the analysis result.Keywords: Epidemic, information, sensitivity analysis, SEIR, stability analysis.

ANALISIS KESTABILAN MODEL PREDATOR PREY DENGAN TINGKATAN USIA PADA DUA PREY DAN DUA PREDATOR DENGAN FUNGSI RESPON MONOD HALDANE DAN KANIBALISME Robiatul Witari Wilda; Dita Monita; Febrianto Afli; Ahmad Muammar Kadafi
EPSILON: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN TERAPAN Vol 17, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Mathematics Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Lambung Mangkurat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20527/epsilon.v17i2.10685

This paper discusses a predator-prey stage structure model for two predators and two preys with Monod Haldane and cannibalism response functions that describe the interactions between populations of young prey, adult prey, young predator, and adult predator. In this model it is assumed that only adult predators are capable of attacking to consume young predators, only adult prey are capable of reproduction, there is a Monod-Haldane effect describing the phenomenon of group defense where predation is reduced, or even prevented altogether, because the ability increases from prey for further defense or camouflage when their numbers are large enough. Dynamic analysis is carried out by determining the equilibrium point and its existence conditions and analyzing the local stability of the equilibrium point. The predator-prey model has three equilibrium points, namely the trivial equilibrium point, the prey free equilibrium point and an interior point that exists under certain conditions. The equilibrium points is locally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. The results of the numerical simulations show suitability with the results of dynamic analysis.

Peningkatan Literasi Matematika Melalui Program Pembinaan Klub Matematika Pada Siswa SMA Negeri 1 Palangka Raya Yumia, Mega; Wilda, Robiatul Witari; Afli, Febrianto; Ayu, Regina Wahyudyah Sonata
Jurnal Pustaka Mitra (Pusat Akses Kajian Mengabdi Terhadap Masyarakat) Vol 5 No 3 (2025): Jurnal Pustaka Mitra (Pusat Akses Kajian Mengabdi Terhadap Masyarakat)
Publisher : Pustaka Galeri Mandiri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55382/jurnalpustakamitra.v5i3.940

SMA Negeri 1 Palangka Raya merupakan salah satu sekolah menengah atas negeri yang sudah lama berdiri di kota Palangka Raya. Namun belum ada ruang untuk mewadahi siswa-siswi SMA Negeri 1 Palangka Raya yang memiliki minat di bidang matematika. Kendala sumber daya yang kompeten merupakan salah satu alas an mendasar. Hal ini juga mempengaruhi kesiapan siswa SMA Negeri 1 Palangka Raya menghadapi olimpiade di bidang matematika. Padahal cukup banyak siswa yang ternyata memiliki minat di bidang matematika. Karenanya, kegiatan pembinaan klub matematika di SMA Negeri 1 Palangka Raya dipandang perlu. Kegiatan ini dilaksanakan melalui beberapa tahap, yaitu 1) penjajakan, 2) oenyusunan jadwal pelatihan, 3) sosialisasi kegiatan dan perekrutan peserta, 4) pelatihan, dan 5) evaluasi. Melalui kegiatan ini, literasi matematika siswa dapat ditingkatkan melalui pelatihan di bidang seperti geometri, aljabar, dan teori bilangan. Pelatihan ini tidak hanya memperdalam pemahaman siswa tetapi juga mempersiapkan mereka untuk kompetisi serta memberikan wadah bagi pengembangan minat matematika.

Sosialisasi Profesi Aktuaris: Referensi Karir Prospektif Yang Menjanjikan bagi Siswa SMA/SMK Wilayah Kota Palangka Raya Basani, Yuniarta; Ayu, Regina Wahyudyah Sonata; Monita, Dita; Afli, Febrianto; Puspitorini, Mega; Yumia, Mega; Arsana, Mu’afa Purwa; Wilda, Robiatul Witari
Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat METHABDI Vol 4 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat METHABDI
Publisher : Universitas Methodist Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46880/methabdi.Vol4No1.pp81-84

This profession operates in the insurance sector which has risk management expertise and is needed at this time. The method used is outreach to teachers and high school students in Palangka Raya. The socialization of the actuary profession aims to increase knowledge of the actuarial profession and introduce actuaries as a field of study in mathematics study programs so that it becomes an inspiration for choosing a study program when continuing to college. Through this service activity, there is an increase in understanding of the actuarial profession and job opportunities for an actuary by lecturers from the Mathematics Study Program with the team from the Center for Financial Professional Development, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia.

ANALISIS FAKTOR INTERNAL DAN EKSTERNAL YANG MEMPENGARUHI MINAT BELAJAR MATEMATIKA PESERTA DIDIK SD SARIMULYO Sukmarini, Mita Akbar; Wilda, Robiatul Witari; Hermanto, Hermanto; Nurjanah, Ana
CARTESIUS : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol 6 No.1 Tahun 2023
Publisher : Unika Santo Thomas Medan

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Penelitian ini tentang analisa faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap minat belajar matematika dari peserta didik SD Sarimulyo. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mendeskripsikan secara detail faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi dan bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap minat belajar matematika. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan dan jenis penelitian kualitatif deskripstif, penelitian ini berupaya menggambarkan keadaan sesungguhnya pada saat pelaksanaan penelitian dan menjabarkan keadaan objek dengan apa adanya. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan metode survey dan angket yang dibagikan kepada 16 peserta didik yang menjadi responden penelitian. Dari hasil penelitian, didapatkan kesimpulan bahwa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi minat belajar peserta didik SD Sarimulyo diantaranya adalah faktor internal yang terdiri dari kondisi jasmani dan kondisi rohani peserta didik, dan faktor eksternal yaitu cara mengajar guru matematika di sekolah dan dukungan dari orang tua di rumah. Dari keempat faktor tersebut, cara mengajar guru disekolah merupakan faktor yang paling berpengaruh terhadap minat belajat matematika dibandingkan dengan faktor yang lain. Ketiga faktor lainnya memiliki pengaruh namun tidak signifikan.

ANALISIS FAKTOR INTERNAL DAN EKSTERNAL YANG MEMPENGARUHI MINAT BELAJAR MATEMATIKA PESERTA DIDIK SD SARIMULYO Sukmarini, Mita Akbar; Wilda, Robiatul Witari; Hermanto, Hermanto; Nurjanah, Ana
CARTESIUS : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol 6 No.1 Tahun 2023
Publisher : Unika Santo Thomas Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Penelitian ini tentang analisa faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap minat belajar matematika dari peserta didik SD Sarimulyo. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mendeskripsikan secara detail faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi dan bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap minat belajar matematika. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan dan jenis penelitian kualitatif deskripstif, penelitian ini berupaya menggambarkan keadaan sesungguhnya pada saat pelaksanaan penelitian dan menjabarkan keadaan objek dengan apa adanya. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan metode survey dan angket yang dibagikan kepada 16 peserta didik yang menjadi responden penelitian. Dari hasil penelitian, didapatkan kesimpulan bahwa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi minat belajar peserta didik SD Sarimulyo diantaranya adalah faktor internal yang terdiri dari kondisi jasmani dan kondisi rohani peserta didik, dan faktor eksternal yaitu cara mengajar guru matematika di sekolah dan dukungan dari orang tua di rumah. Dari keempat faktor tersebut, cara mengajar guru disekolah merupakan faktor yang paling berpengaruh terhadap minat belajat matematika dibandingkan dengan faktor yang lain. Ketiga faktor lainnya memiliki pengaruh namun tidak signifikan.

Sosialisasi Profesi Aktuaris: Referensi Karir Prospektif Yang Menjanjikan bagi Siswa SMA/SMK Wilayah Kota Palangka Raya Basani, Yuniarta; Ayu, Regina Wahyudyah Sonata; Monita, Dita; Afli, Febrianto; Puspitorini, Mega; Yumia, Mega; Arsana, Mu’afa Purwa; Wilda, Robiatul Witari
Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat METHABDI Vol 4 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat METHABDI
Publisher : Universitas Methodist Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46880/methabdi.Vol4No1.pp81-84

This profession operates in the insurance sector which has risk management expertise and is needed at this time. The method used is outreach to teachers and high school students in Palangka Raya. The socialization of the actuary profession aims to increase knowledge of the actuarial profession and introduce actuaries as a field of study in mathematics study programs so that it becomes an inspiration for choosing a study program when continuing to college. Through this service activity, there is an increase in understanding of the actuarial profession and job opportunities for an actuary by lecturers from the Mathematics Study Program with the team from the Center for Financial Professional Development, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia.

Prediksi Harga Saham PT. Unilever Indonesia TBK Dengan Metode Regresi Linier Sederhana Wilda, Robiatul Witari; Sukmarini, Mita Akbar; Mahar, Alicia Christina
Balance: Media Informasi Akuntansi dan Keuangan Vol. 16 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal BALANCE: Media Informasi Akuntansi dan Keuangan
Publisher : Universitas Palangka Raya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52300/blnc.v16i2.14249

The world of investment is a dynamic market characterized by its fluctuations, including changes in stock values. This research is motivated by the need to predict stock prices with high accuracy to support more precise investment decision-making. PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk is one of the leading companies in Indonesia, and thus, forecasting its stock prices holds strategic value for investors. However, predicting stock prices is a complex task influenced by various economic and company-specific factors. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the simple linear regression method in forecasting the stock prices of PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk. The results show that this method can produce accurate predictions, with a forecasted value of Rp 2,707 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.65%. The application of this method has significant contributions in the investment world, where accurate stock price predictions can assist investors in determining the optimal timing for investment transactions.

Pemetaan Prediksi Wilayah Rawan Bencana Hidrometeorologi di Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah Dwinanda, Indah Gumilang; Adelia, Kadek Ayu Cintya; Wilda, Robiatul Witari; Afli, Febrianto; Kaloka, Tesdiq Prigel; Pratiwie, Desy Lutfiani
Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA Vol 10 No 2 (2024): February
Publisher : Postgraduate, University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jppipa.v10i2.6238

Disaster is an event or a series of events that threatens and disrupts people's lives and livelihoods, caused by natural and/or non-natural factors and human factors, resulting in human casualties, environmental damage, property losses, and psychological impacts. Hydrometeorological disasters are events related to water, atmosphere, and oceans. It is recorded that hydrometeorological disasters occurring in Indonesia reach 86%, including floods, tornadoes, landslides, forest and land fires, and droughts. Specifically, in Central Kalimantan Province, forest and land fires and floods are frequent disasters. Both fall into the category of hydrometeorological disasters, closely related to the climate in Central Kalimantan. In this study, the prediction of rainfall, temperature, and humidity values in Central Kalimantan Province was calculated using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average method at 5 stations in the province. Subsequently, the prediction analysis of flood events was carried out using the machine learning random forest method based on the rainfall data, temperature, humidity, and event data. According to the calculation results, flood disasters are not predicted to affect almost all areas of Central Kalimantan Province. However, by the end of 2023, it is anticipated that most areas in the province will still be categorized as experiencing a normal level of drought. Notably, there are two areas that must increase awareness of this drought disaster, namely Pulang Pisau and Sampit, especially in October 2023.

Optimal Control of HIV/AIDS Epidemics: Integrating Media Awareness and Antiviral Treatment Ayu, Regina Wahyudyah Sonata; Wilda, Robiatul Witari; Rizka, Sailah Ar; Yumia, Mega; Afli, Febrianto
Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society Vol. 31 No. 4 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : IndoMS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22342/jims.v31i4.1918

This paper investigates an optimal control strategy to mitigate the spread of HIV/AIDS by integrating media awareness campaigns and antiviral treatment efforts. A modified SI-type model is developed, dividing the population into five subgroups: unaware susceptible individuals, aware susceptible individuals, unaware infected individuals, aware infected individuals, and individuals undergoing treatment. Additionally, a separate compartment representing the level of media awareness is included to model the dynamics of awareness campaigns over time. Three control variables are introduced: the success of media awareness programs aimed at reducing contact between susceptible and infected individuals and encouraging infected individuals to seek and receive treatment; the effort to provide antiretroviral treatment; and the effort to strengthen the intensity of media awareness programs. The objective is to minimize the number of unaware susceptible and infected individuals while maximizing the number of individuals receiving treatment, and to reduce implementation costs. The model employs optimal control theory to identify the best combination of strategies by minimizing a cost functional. Numerical simulations explore seven control strategy combinations, ranging from single to multiple controls. The results indicate that combining all control variables yields the most significant reduction in unaware and infected individuals, a substantial increase in the number of individuals receiving treatment, and effective minimization of costs.

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