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Peramalan Pencemaran Udara Di Kota Surabaya Menggunakan Metode DSARIMA dengan Pendekatan Percentile Error Bootstrap (PEB) Koesoemaningroem, Novi; Endroyono, Endroyono; Nugroho, Supeno Mardi Susiki
Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol 8 No 5: Oktober 2021
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25126/jtiik.2021855216

Abstract

Peramalan pencemaran udara yang  akurat  diperlukan untuk mengurangi dampak pencemaran udara. Peramalan yang belum akurat akan berdampak kurang efektifnya tindakan yang dilakukan untuk mengantisipasi dampak pencemaran udara. Sehingga diperlukan sebuah pendekatan yang dapat mengetahui keakuratan plot data hasil peramalan. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan melakukan peramalan pencemaran udara berdasarkan parameter PM10, NO2, CO, SO2, dan O3dengan metode DSARIMA. Data dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 8.760 data yang berasal dari Dinas Lingkungan Hidup Kota Surabaya. Berdasarkan hasil peramalan selama 168 jam kadar parameter PM10, NO2, SO2 dan O3 cenderung  menurun. Hasil peramalan selama 168 jam dengan menggunakan DSARIMA memberikan hasil peramalan yang nilainya mendekati data aktual terbukti dari polanya yang sesuai atau mirip dengan grafik plot data aktual dengan hasil ramalan. Dengan pendekatan PEB, selisih antara data aktual dan data ramalan kecil dan plot grafik PEB mengikuti plot grafik di data aktual, sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model sudah sesuai. Hasil akurasi terbaik yang dihasilkan adalah model DSARIMA dengan RMSE terkecil 0,59 didapatkan dari parameter CO yaitu ARIMA(0,1,[1,2,3])(0,1,1)24(0,1,1)168. AbstractAccurate air pollution forecasting is needed to reduce the impact of air pollution. Inaccurate forecasting will result in less effective actions taken to anticipate the impact of air pollution. So we need an approach that can determine the accuracy of the forecast data plot. This research was conducted with the aim of forecasting air pollution based on the PM10, NO2, CO, SO2, and O3 parameters using the DSARIMA method. The data in this study were 8.760 data from the Surabaya City Environmental Service. Based on the results of forecasting for 168 hours, the levels of PM10, NO2, SO2, and O3 parameters tend to decrease. Forecasting results for 168 hours using DSARIMA provide forecasting results whose values are close to the actual data as evidenced by the pattern that matches or is similar to the actual data plot graph with the forecast results. With the PEB approach, the difference between the actual data and the forecast data is small and the PEB graph plot follows the graph plot in the actual data, so it can be said that the model is appropriate. The best accuracy result is DSARIMA with the smallest RMSE 0,59 obtained from the CO parameter, namely ARIMA(0,1,[1,2,3])(0,1,1)24(0,1,1)168.  
Market Basket Analysis to Identify Customer Behaviorsby Way of Transaction Data Kurniawan, Fachrul; Umayah, Binti; Hammad, Jihad; Nugroho, Supeno Mardi Susiki; Hariadi, Mochammad
Knowledge Engineering and Data Science
Publisher : citeus

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Transaction data is a set of recording data result in connections with sales-purchase activities at a particular company. In these recent years, transaction data have been prevalently used as research objects in means of discovering new information. One of the possible attempts is to design an application that can be used to analyze the existing transaction data. That application has the quality of market basket analysis. In addition, the application is designed to be desktop-based whose components are able to process as well as re-log the existing transaction data. The used method in designing this application is by way of following the existing steps on data mining technique.The trial result showed that the development and the implementation of market basket analysis application through association rule method using apriori algorithm could work well. With the means of confidence value of 46.69% and support value of 1.78%, and the amount of the generated rule was 30 rules.