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Modelling Inflation Rates Provinces in Indonesia Period 2013-2017 with Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) Dynamic Using Spatially Corrected Blundell-Bond (SCBB) Widya Reza; Henny Pramoedyo; Rahma Fitriani
Wacana Journal of Social and Humanity Studies Vol. 24 No. 4 (2021)
Publisher : Sekolah Pascasarjana Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Inflation control is one of the main macroeconomic problems that must be solved in Indonesia. In inflation control, it is necessary to do an analysis to determine the factors that influence it. The Phillips Curve theory states that one of the factors that influence inflation in a given period is the inflation of the previous period so that dynamic relationships apply that require dynamic modeling. In a dynamic model, the lag of the response variable as a predictor variable causes endogeneity problems so that a parameter estimation method is needed to overcome it. In addition to inflation in the previous period, factors that are thought to influence the inflation rate in Indonesia are economic growth, real interest rates, money supply, and the Consumer price index (CPI) set by the government. The closeness between provinces in Indonesia can cause the inflation rate of a province to be similar to the inflation rate of other provinces through the transfer of information and knowledge, causing spatial dependence. Spatial dependence can occur in a response and predictor variables called Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). To overcome this problem a method is needed to overcome the problem of endogeneity and spatial dependence, namely Spatially Corrected Blundell-Bond (SCBB). The results showed that the inflation rate in the previous year (Inft-1) had a significant influence on the inflation rate this year. In addition, another variable that significantly influences the inflation rate is the inflation rate in neighborhood provinces (WInft), the inflation rate in the neighborhood provinces at the previous time (WInft-1), economic growth (PEt), SBI interest rates (SBIt), SBI interest rates in neighborhood provinces (WSBIt), Consumer Price index (CPI) set by the government in that province (CPIt) and neighborhood provinces (WCPIt).
Perbandingan Model Time Series Pada Peramalan Inflasi Di Kota Batam Widya Reza Widya; Sanipar; Andini Setyo Anggareni
JURNAL SINTAK Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): SEPTEMBER 2023
Publisher : LPPM-ITEBA

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Abstract

Inflation is a problem that disrupts the economy of every country, as well as developing countries such as Indonesia which is an agricultural country. To maintain the instability of the inflation rate, an alternative way that can be done is to forecast time series data. This study aims to predict the value of inflation that will occur in Batam City in the future so that this research is useful for taking appropriate action can be done. Seasonal time series analysis which is a forecasting method based on synthesis of historical data patterns. For data analysis, the author chose the help of Minitab software. The data used is secondary data in the form of monthly time series data, namely inflation rate data for Batam city from January 2014 to July 2022. Based on the results of the analysis, comparison of MSE values between SMA models, Multiplicativ and Additive, the best model is the Additive model, so that the model is what we use in forecasting
Analisis Korelasi Pearson Total Unit Printed Circuit Board Assembly (PCBA) Good In Circuit Testing (ICT) Puri Rahayu Nengsi; Andini Setyo Anggraeni; Widya Reza
Mathematical Sciences and Applications Journal Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): Mathematical Sciences and Applications Journal
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/msa.v4i1.28508

Abstract

Every job always faces challenges or problems from various aspects, one of the problems was related to PT PCI Elektronik Internasional's production target for In Circuit Testing (ICT), which aims to achieve 90% of the total ICT units as good product, it means that the minimum percentage of ICT units that must be good is 90% to achieve this target. However, not all units can be classified as 100% good. The quality of the ICT unit depends on the condition of the Printed Circuit Board Assembly (PCBA) and the testing machine. This research will analyze the relationship between the total PCBA good ICT units in May and June 2023 using correlation analysis. Based on the results of correlation analysis using the Pearson method, a correlation coefficient value of 0.843 was obtained between the total PCBA good ICT units in May 2023 and the total PCBA good ICT units in June 2023. The correlation value of 0.843 indicates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between the total PCBA good ICT units in May and June 2023.
PENGARUH PERUBAHAN IKLIM TERHADAP PRODUKSI PERIKANAN TANGKAP DI KOTA BATAM MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS REGRESI TIME SERIES Faradiba Jabnabillah; Widya Reza
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 5 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v5i1.551

Abstract

This research aims to describe the influence of temperature, wind speed and rainfall on caught fish production in the city of Batam. The research method used is quantitative using a time series regression test which was analyzed from January 2019 to December 2022 with the variables analyzed being temperature (X1), wind speed (X2), rainfall (X3) and capture fisheries production (Y) . Partial test results show that the relationship between wind speed (X2) and rainfall (X3) on Y is negative, meaning that the higher the wind speed (X2) and rainfall (X3), the lower the production of caught fish (Y). Meanwhile, partial test results show that temperature (X1), wind speed (X2) and rainfall (X3) together have a significant effect on capture fisheries production (Y) in Batam city. The partial test results show that the significance value for the temperature variable (X1) is 0.25 > 0.05, which means that the temperature variable (X1) has no effect on capture fisheries production (Y) in Batam city. Meanwhile, the partial test results on the variables wind speed (X2) and rainfall (X3) obtained a value of 0.00 < 0.05, which means that the variables wind speed (X2) and rainfall (X3) have an effect on capture fisheries production (Y) in Batam city. Meanwhile, the results of simultaneous tests show that temperature (X1), wind speed (X2) and rainfall (X3) together have a significant effect on capture fisheries production (Y) in the city of Batam with a significance value of 0.00 < 0 .05. The coefficient of determination value in this study was 0.686. This means that weather changes have a proportion of influence on Batam city capture fisheries production of 68.6% while the rest is influenced by other variables outside this model
Edukasi Perencanaan Dana Pensiun secara Mandiri Bagi Karyawan Swasta SMK Terpadu Putra Jaya Batam Widya Reza; Andini Setyo Anggraeni; Sabarinsyah
Jurnal SOLMA Vol. 12 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Prof. DR. Hamka (UHAMKA Press)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22236/solma.v12i2.11280

Abstract

Background: One of the phenomena surrounding Indonesian society is the lack of awareness of pension fund planning, so there are often financial problems in retirement. This activity aims to educate the public about the importance of independent pension fund planning, especially private employees. Method: This activity was carried out at SMK Terpadu Putra Jaya Batam with 25 participants. This activity lasted for six weeks, with the intervention providing education on pension fund planning and calculating pension fund needs independently. This series of activities consists of a pretest, material description, discussion session, and post-test. Results: This activity increased participants' understanding of the importance of independent pension fund planning for private employees. The pretest results showed that participants who understood and were interested in planning pension funds only amounted to 5%. The post-test results showed that 98% of participants understood and intended to prepare pension funds. Participants also learned about calculating the time value of money for pension funds and choosing suitable investments. Conclusion: The participants were very enthusiastic about participating in this activity which was shown by an increased understanding and interest in planning pension funds independently. Even though they already have high knowledge, private employees should also be able to control themselves to have good retirement fund planning.
Analysis of The Debtor's Endurance using Cox Regression Semiparametric Method Handayani*, Vitri Aprilla; Reza, Widya; Anggraeni, Andini Setyo; Rusmadi, Garry
Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan (JIKA) Vol. 12 No. 1: Desember 2022
Publisher : Program Studi Keuangan & Perbankan, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Komputer Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34010/jika.v12i1.7194

Abstract

The aim of this research was conducted to determine the factors that influence the resilience of car loan debtors in an area. The research method used is semiparametric Cox regression on secondary data, WAREHOUSE consisting of the customer profile (demography) and historical payment consisting of 25 observed variables. The Cox regression model used in this study is a proportional hazard Cox regression model. Based on the description of the data, it shows that there is a risk of defaulting debtors who have been past due compared to never past due. Cox proportional hazard regression model with the semiparametric method can be used to identify factors that affect debtor resilience. Of the 25 variables observed, there is one variable, namely the X16 (Age) variable which does not significantly affect the debtor's endurance. Keywords: Debtor Resistance; Historical Payment; Semiparametric; Cox Regression; Proportional Hazard Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap daya tahan debitur kredit mobil di suatu wilayah. Metode penelitian yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah semiparametric regresi cox pada data sekunder, warehouse yang terdiri profil (demographi) customer dan historycal payment terdiri atas 25 varibel yang diamati. Model regresi Cox yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah model regresi Cox hazard proporsional. Berdasarkan deskripsi data menunjukkan adanya risiko debitur gagal bayar yang Pernah Past Due dibandingkan Never Past Due. Model regresi cox proportional hazard dengan metode semiparametrik dapat digunakan untuk mengedentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi daya tahan debitur. Dari 25 variable yang diamati ada 1 (satu) variable yaitu peubah X16 (Age) yang tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap daya tahan debitur. Kata Kunci: Daya Tahan Debitur; Riwayat Pembayaran; Semiparametrik; Regresi Cox; Proporsi Hazard
Value at Risk Evaluation of Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit Pension Plans Fadilah, Alya; Anggraeni, Andini Setyo; Reza, Widya
Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan (JIKA) Vol. 13 No. 2: June 2024
Publisher : Program Studi Keuangan & Perbankan, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Komputer Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34010/jika.v13i2.12689

Abstract

Pension funds such as the Defined Benefit Pension Program (DBPP) and the Defined Contribution Pension Program (DCPP) have risks that need to be managed carefully. Previous research has looked at VaR in other contexts, but no one has specifically discussed VaR in pension funds, especially DBPP and DCPP. The main objective of this research is to determine the VaR value for the two pension programs and analyze the risk differences between DBPP and DCPP. The method used is VaR measurement with Monte Carlo simulation based on data from January 2015 to July 2023. The research results obtained from these measurements show that DBPP provides the largest potential maximum loss (VaR) value for the next 1 month period compared to DCPP.
FORECASTING EKSPOR RUMPUT LAUT MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS TREND Nabillah, Faradiba; Hazimah, Hazimah; Reza, Widya; Wahyu Aranski, Alvendo; Dwiakila Ramadhan , Achiles
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v5i3.772

Abstract

Batam City is located in the Riau Islands Province, Indonesia, known as a strategic free trade area with rapidly growing industrial, trade, maritime and fisheries sectors, especially seaweed cultivation. Seaweed has high economic value and global demand, used as food and raw materials for the cosmetics, pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. Batam's ideal geographical conditions support the growth of seaweed, with the support of local government policies and cultivation technology. However, challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, limited access to technology must be overcome to increase exports. On the other hand, competition with other neighboring seaweed countries such as Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand is also a challenge. These countries have already developed their seaweed industries well, including in terms of technology, product quality and international marketing networks. Batam needs to adopt innovative and efficient strategies and international cooperation to optimize this potential. With these problems, it is interesting to see the seaweed export forecast in Batam City. Is there an increase or decrease? So the purpose of this study is to describe the best model used in predicting seaweed export volume and describe the results of seaweed export volume predictions in Batam City in 2024 - 2025. The research method is quantitative using Trend analysis. The results of the study show that the best model used is the Quadratic trend model because it has the smallest MAPE, MAD and MSE values ​​compared to other models. Meanwhile, the results of seaweed export forecasts from Batam City continue to experience a significant increase in 2024 - 2025.
Edukasi Tentang Implementasi Ilmu Matematika Dalam Bidang Kemaritiman Reza, Widya; Faradiba Jabnabillah; Anggareni, Andini Setyo Anggraeni; sabarinsyah
Jurnal SOLMA Vol. 13 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Prof. DR. Hamka (UHAMKA Press)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22236/solma.v13i2.14932

Abstract

Background: Sebahagian besar orang masih menganggap matematika sebagai ilmu yang sulit dan membingungkan karena dalam praktiknya, ilmu tersebut cenderung hanya ditekankan pada penguasaan konsep dan pengaplikasian matematika dalam soal-soal standar ujian tertulis tanpa adanya integrasi dengan kehidupan nyata. Tujuan pengabdian masyarakat ini untuk memberikan eduksi tentang bagaimana implementasi ilmu matematika dalam dunia nyata khusus nya bidang kemaritiman dengan memberikan berbagai contoh permasalahan dan cara memecahkan masalah menggunakan ilmu matematika. Metode: Kegiatan ini dilaksanakan di SMA N 21 Batam dengan jumlah peserta sebanyak 31 orang. Kegiatan ini berlangsung selama enam minggu dengan intervensi memberikan edukasi tentang implementasi ilmu matematika dalam bidang kemaritiman dengan praktik penggunaan software statistika dalam proses pembelajaran matematika. Rangkaian kegiatan ini terdiri dari prestest, uraian materi, praktik, sesi diskusi, dan post test. Hasil: Hasil pretest menunjukkan bahwa persentase tingkat motivasi siswa pada pembelajaran matematika masih banyak yang kurang termotivasi bahkan tidak termotivasi. sedangkan hasil post test menunjukkan bahwa terjadi peningkatan motivasi siswa setelah dilakukan pelatihan software statistika menggunakan data kemaritiman. Peserta juga memperoleh pengetahuan tentang implementasi ilmu matematika dalam berbagai bidang dengan emanfaatkan software statistika. Kesimpulan: Para siswa sangat antusias dan bersemangat mengikuti kegiatan ini yang ditunjukkan dengan peningkatan pemahaman, motivasi dan kepuasan dalam belajar ilmu matematika. Meskipun sudah memiliki pemahaman yang cukup, namun sebaiknya siswa dan guru matematika juga mampu meningkatkan motivasi dalam mempelajari ilmu matematika dengan pendekatan studi kasus dan penggunaan berbagai software matematika dalam proses pembelajaran.
Peningkatan Hasil Belajar Peserta Didik pada Pembelajaran Pendidikan Pancasila Menggunakan Model Cooperative Learning Tipe Course Review Horay di Kelas V Sdn 03 Pulai Anak Air Kota Bukittinggi Reza, Widya; Masniladevi, Masniladevi; Anita, Yesi; Fitria, Yanti
Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal (In-Press)
Publisher : Lembaga Intelektual Muda (LIM) Maluku

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54373/imeij.v6i2.2921

Abstract

This study aims to describe the improvement of student learning outcomes in Pancasila Education learning through the application of the Cooperative Learning model of the Course Review Horay (CRH) type in grade V of SDN 03 Pulai Anak Air Bukittinggi. This study uses the Classroom Action Research (PTK) method with a qualitative and quantitative approach, carried out in two cycles that include the stages of planning, implementation, observation, and reflection. Data were collected through test and non-test techniques, with the research subjects consisting of teachers as observers, researchers as practitioners, and class V students. The results of the study showed an increase in several aspects: (1) Teaching modules increased from an average of 83.2% (B) in cycle I to 95.83% (SB) in cycle II; (2) The implementation of learning by teachers increased from 81.5% (B) to 95.45% (SB); (3) The implementation of student aspect learning increased from 81.5% (B) to 95.45% (SB); (4) Students' learning outcomes increased from an average of 76.69 (C) in cycle I to 90.53 (SB) in cycle II. In conclusion, the application of the Horay Course Review model has proven to be effective in improving student learning outcomes in Pancasila Education learning in grade V of SDN 03 Pulai Anak Air Bukittinggi