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Analysis of the Relationship Between Net Exports and Gross Regional Domestic Product Using the Panel Vector Correction Model (PVECM) Approach Soleha, Salma; Gamayanti, Nurul Fiskia; Sain, Hartayuni; Fadjryani, Fadjryani
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i3.4898

Abstract

In regional economic growth, various factors play a role, including net exports, a key indicator of international trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze the long-term relationship and causal link between net exports and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in Indonesia. The method used in this study is the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM), applied to panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia for the period 2010–2023. The results of the study indicate a cointegration relationship between net exports and GRDP, in which a 1-unit increase in net exports decreases GRDP by 5.445139 units. The Granger Causality test shows a significant bidirectional relationship between the variables, indicating that they influence each other. The R² value of 54.99% indicates that the model explains 54.99% of the variation in net exports. The implication of these findings suggests that policymakers need to consider the quality and composition of export and import activities, as well as regional trade structures, to ensure that international trade contributes positively to regional economic growth.
Cluster Analysis of Indonesian Provinces Based on Health Performance Indicators Using Fuzzy C-Means nurul fiskia gamayanti; Mohammad Fajri; Hartayuni Sain; Fadjryani; Iman Setiawan
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol4-iss3/529

Abstract

In accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with particular emphasis on Goal 3 which focuses on ensuring a healthy life and improving the welfare of all residents across all stages of life, ranging from infancy to older adulthood, it is closely related to looking at existing health indicators. The Indonesian region consisting of 34 provinces makes policies difficult to generalize due to the different characteristics of each region. So a cluster method is needed where regional objects will be clustered into several groups so that policies will be better implemented in a formed cluster. One clustering technique that may be employed is the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) algorithm. FCM provides a membership value in the form of degrees ranging from 0 to 1, representing the degree of strength of the relationship of a data with each group, the analysis performed using the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) method resulted in the formation of two clusters, which represent that cluster 1 is a cluster with indications of areas that have good health, and cluster 2 is a cluster with indications of poor, Cluster 1 comprises 12 provinces, whereas Cluster 2 includes 22 provinces.