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Analisis dan Implementasi Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Prediksi Kebutuhan Gula berdasarkan Penjualan Bumbu Tabur XYZ Oktavia, Chendrasari Wahyu; Natalia, Christine; suprata, Ferdian; Hindratmo, Astria
Metris: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 21 No. 02 (2020): Desember
Publisher : Prodi Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik - Universitas Katolik Indonesia Atma Jaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25170/metris.v21i02.2494

Abstract

The sales activity is a very important activity for the development and sustainability of a company. The sales are closely related to the requirement of raw material. By knowing the number of sales, a company can do estimate the amount of raw material required for production. However, so far still be found as a company that has its policies to determine a requirement of raw material as impact not use a raw material control method. The research purpose to determine the amount of sugar raw material requirement based on results number of sales seasoning XYZ with Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the analysis of data processing results. It was found that the number of sales from the simulation results in 2019 was quite high compared to the sales results during 2018 where the difference in sales simulation in 2019 and real data in 2018 was 62,334 kg. In terms of sugar supply, the total requirement for sugar in 2019 is also quite high, namely 186,756 kg, or the difference in requirement between simulation results and real data is 21,818 kg. This shows that the amount of requirement is directly proportional to sales.
INTEGRASI MODEL HOUSE OF RISK DAN ANALYTICAL NETWORKING PROCESS (ANP) UNTUK MITIGASI RISIKO SUPPLY CHAIN Natalia, Christine; Oktavia, Chendrasari Wahyu; Makatita, Welhelmina Vince; Suprata, Ferdian
Metris: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 22 No. 01 (2021): Juni
Publisher : Prodi Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik - Universitas Katolik Indonesia Atma Jaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25170/metris.v22i01.2619

Abstract

Currently, the resilience of the company is not separated from the strength supply chain network. Without this network, so the business process will not run well. But the strong supply chain network became vulnerable to risk. It caused by complexity and a highly dependent supply chain network. These risks need to minimize. The method that can be used to minimize risk with integrating the house of risk method and Analytical Network Process. The purpose of these integration methods to identification and recognized interrelationships between risk agent’s mitigation strategies, so the effect of event risk can be reduced. And then, by looking strategies can reducing costs incurred by the company and efficiency of risk agent’s mitigation strategy. Based on the results of House of Risk stage 1, there are 25 causes of risk that need to mitigate. The risk mitigation strategies that obtained to minimize the causes of risk, are then processed by the Analytical Networking Process (ANP) method. Based on the results of the Analytical Networking Process (ANP) method, there are two risk mitigation strategies. House of Risk stage 2 has applied to measure the efficiency and the level of difficulty of these two risk mitigation strategies. The results showed that the best mitigation strategies are conducting training and measuring company’s performance.
Perbandingan Analisis Keputusan dalam Penentuan Lokasi Gudang Angkatan Laut Wilayah Barat Oktavia, Chendrasari Wahyu; Natalia, Christine; Ratanadewi, Steffi; Gunawan, Sherly
Metris: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 19 No. 01 (2018): Juni
Publisher : Prodi Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik - Universitas Katolik Indonesia Atma Jaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The development of a company is always related to its supporting facilities’ location, for instance, warehouse location. Usually, company choose the most strategic one to minimize its transportation cost, distribution route and time. As the result, it is clear that warehouse location determination is the key to company’s success in delivering consumer needs. Location determination is not only used in manufacturing problem, but it is also can be used in national defense problem, which is the case study of this research: Western Sea Sector Indonesian Navy. In national defense, national and regional development are important factors for maximizing Indonesian Navy’s strength. As an example, logistics capability improvement. Logistics is one of the most important parts to support warships in doing their maritime operations. So, strategy of determinating the best warehouse location is very crucial to make sure the distribution of goods went smoothly. This research uses Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) as a method to solve location determination problem. Using a study case from main literature by Gunawan et al (2018), this research does another two methods for problem solving, they are Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting (F-SAW) and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (F-AHP). The main purpose of this research is to compare Fuzzy MCDM method, which is used by Gunawan et al (2018), with F-SAW and F-AHP which is calculated in this research. Result shows that Naval Base III is the best location from Fuzzy MCDM and F-AHP, but the best location from F-SAW method is Naval Base I.
Risk Mitigation on Metalworking Oil & Fluids Business Process by Integrated House Of Risk (HOR) and Fishbone Diagram Approach Natalia, Christine; Oktavia, Chendrasari Wahyu; Silaban, Sonia Artha Ria; Surbakti, Feliks Prasepta Sejahtera
Metris: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 22 No. 02 (2021): Desember
Publisher : Prodi Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik - Universitas Katolik Indonesia Atma Jaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25170/metris.v22i02.3040

Abstract

Business processes take an essential role in creating strategic goals for every company. However, It is not easy things in current condition. In the business process, every company has many vulnerable activities to risk. This research was conducted in the company engaged in the manufacturing industry that produces and supplies metalworking oils & fluids. So far, the company has experienced risk events such as late production and late delivery. This research aims to analyse and design the risk mitigation strategies of the company’s supply chain by using House of Risk and Fishbone Diagram approaches. By integrating these two methods, the root of the risk agent can be specifically identified and make it easier to design risk mitigation strategies. The purpose of this research is to analyse and design a risk mitigation strategy using the integrated HOR and Fishbone Diagram approach in the supply chain of a metalworking oils & fluids company. This research indicates twenty risk events, six priority risk agents, sixteen root of risk agents, and six priority mitigation strategies. The six priority mitigation strategies include implementing reward and punishment for better SOP, starting with briefing every day before activities, providing regular training to the employees, hiring great employees, establishing employee performance appraisal effectively, and maintaining machines preventively.
Analisis Peramalan Dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo dan Implementasi Pengendalian Persediaan Gula Berdasarkan EOQ Oktavia, Chendrasari Wahyu; Sugioko, Andre
Metris: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 23 No. 01 (2022): Juni
Publisher : Prodi Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik - Universitas Katolik Indonesia Atma Jaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25170/metris.v23i01.3526

Abstract

Inventory control has an important role to maintain the stability of the company's business continuity. With inventory control, companies can meet consumer needs and consumers will feel satisfied if the demand comes on time. On the other hand, with this focus on inventory control, company management must also be careful if the raw material inventory is too large, it will result in high inventory costs, on the other hand, if there is too little raw material inventory, it will result in unfulfilled consumer needs. The purpose of this study is to identify forecasting the amount of sugar demand in 2019 and determine the amount of inventory costs from the forecasting results using EOQ. It is hoped that in the future the company will not only be able to know the future demand side based on forecasting, but the company already has an estimate of the total cost of inventory. The need for sugar raw materials from the forecasting results is 170,173 kg. Where the most needs are in April and November 2019, the number of economic purchases is 5218 kg with a frequency of ordering 33 times a year. Based on company policy, there is currently no information on safety stock and reoder points set by the company. With the EOQ proposal, the results of the safety stock and reoder point are 34,349 kg and 70,875 kg, respectively. The TIC proposal based on the EOQ is able to reduce the total inventory cost which was originally with the company's policy of Rp. 1,805,785,530 to Rp. 1,805,138,304 where this figure saves Rp. 647,226
Analisis Prediksi Pengunjung Laundry XY Berdasarkan Hasil Simulasi Monte Carlo Oktavia, Chendrasari Wahyu; Hindratmo, Astria; Ong, Andre Wahyu Riyanto
Jurnal Tiarsie Vol 20 No 7 (2023): Jurnal TIARSIE 20.7
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik Universitas Langlangbuana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32816/tiarsie.v20i7.214

Abstract

Abstrak - Usaha laundry merupakan usaha yang cukup banyak di temui di beberapa daerah di Indonesia. Perkembangan usaha laudry makin pesat sebesar 50%. Keberlangsungan roda bisnis usaha laundry koin ini bergantung pada kunjungan konsumen setiap harinya. Sayangnya, kunjungan konsumen merupakan keadaan yang tidak dapat ditentukan secara pasti oleh pelaku usaha sehingga seringkali menyulitkan pelaku usaha dalam menentukan besar pendapatan yang diperoleh dan biaya yang akan dikeluarkan. Untuk meminimalisasi biaya dan dan memaksimalkan keuntungan, pelaku usaha membutuhkan teknik peramalan dengan metode simulasi monte carlo. Hasil simulasi monte carlo untuk 60 hari ke depan mendapatkan estimasi jumlah kunjungan konsumen akan terus berulang setiap 12 hari dan tingkat akurasi sebesar 115% dan perhitungan MAPE adalah 43,04%. Kesimpulannya adalah metode simulasi monte acrlo sudah cukup baik dalam menggambarkan kondisi peramalan terhadap kondisi sebenarnya.
Perbandingan analisis studi kelayakan usaha hasil peramalan simulasi monte carlo dengan kondisi sebenarnya Oktavia, Chendrasari wahyu; Subaderi, Subaderi; Alfarizi, Ahmad; Arrosyid, M Ferdy
Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN) Vol. 7 No. 4 (2024): October
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/jutin.v7i4.38865

Abstract

Every laundry business owner certainly wants to know how far the business they have run has developed. To find out this, a business feasibility study is needed that looks at the aspects of revenue and total costs. However, unfortunately, business actors do not carry out business feasibility study calculations. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the extent of business development in the coming period. The approach used is Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the amount of revenue in the future period and the R/C ratio is calculated and the actual condition results are also calculated by the R/C ratio to obtain comparative results. Based on the R/C ratio results with simulation revenue results, it shows that the laundry business in February and April was above 1, which means it experienced a profit and vice versa, with actual conditions in February and March below 1, which means it experienced a loss.