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A MODEL ARCH(1) DAN GARCH(1,1) PADA PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM PT. COWELL DEVELOPMENT Tbk. Bilondatu, Rosna Ningsih; Nurwan, Nurwan; Isa, Dewi Rahmawaty
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 13 No 1 (2019): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (200.762 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol13iss1pp009-018ar676

Abstract

Penelitian ini memfokuskan pada peramalan harga saham PT. Cowell Development Tbk. menggunakan data pada Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2016. Hasil analisis diperoleh model terbaik adalah model ARIMA(2,1,12). Hasil pengujian asumsi residual white noise menggunakan uji Ljung-Box menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA(2,1,12) merupakan residual white noise. Hasil uji ARCH-LM menunjukkan data mengandung efek heteroskedastisitas atau unsur ARCH. Model yang diajukan dalam penelitian ini adalah ARCH(1) dan GARCH(1,1). Nilai AIC dan BIC terkecil dari dua model ini adalah ARCH(1). Model ARIMA(2,1,12) dengan residual ARCH(1) merupakan model terbaik untuk meramalkan saham PT. Cowel Development Tbk. Penerapan model ARCH(1) untuk meramalkan harga saham PT. Cowel Development Tbk selama 10 hari periode 2013-2016, menunjukkan bahwa peramalan sudah mendekati data faktual dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,043%. Hal ini memberikan indikasi hasil peramalan sudah mendekati data faktual.
ANALISIS KESTABILAN MODEL PENYEBARAN PENGGUNA NARKOBA DENGAN FAKTOR EDUKASI Husain, Moh Rizal; Nurwan, Nurwan; Resmawan, Resmawan
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 14 No 1 (2020): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (803.02 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol14iss1pp069-078

Abstract

This article discusses the model of drug addicts with education. The analysis begins by constructing the model. Next, the equilibrium point and its stability conditions are determined, and numerical simulation is given at the end. Two equilibrium points obtained, those are the drug-addicts free equilibrium point and the drug-addicts endemic equilibrium point. Then the basic reproduction number ( ) as the expected value of infection per unit time is determined using the Next Generation Matrix approach. Based on the numerical simulation, every population is stable near to the drug-free equilibrium point at , means the population of the drug-addict constantly decrease and on a certain condition will be non-existent, and stable around to drug-endemic equilibrium point at , means the drug-addict population will constantly increase so the drug epidemic occurred. Through the numerical simulation, the biggest education is given, the more population susceptible to education increase which caused the number population of susceptible without education decrease.
PEMODELAN REGRESI SPASIAL DEPENDENSI PADA TINGKAT PARTISIASI ANGKATAN KERJA DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2020 Usali, Rahmayunda; Nurwan, Nurwan; Oroh, Franky Alfrits; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 15 No 4 (2021): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1128.247 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol15iss4pp687-696

Abstract

This study discusses the regression modeling with spatial dependence to determine the factors affecting the labor force participation rate in Indonesia 2020. The spatial regression models used in this study are spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM), The finding concludes that the SAR model is better used in spatial modeling. At the same time, provincial minimum wage, the average length of school or educational level, and population are factors that affect the labor force participation rate in Indonesia 2020.
MAX-PLUS ALGEBRA MODEL ON INAPORTNET SYSTEM SHIPS SERVICE SCHEME Nurwan, Nurwan; F. Payu, Muhammad Rezky
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (735.991 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss1pp147-156

Abstract

Queues are often found in public service providers, including port services. Therefore, the InaPortNet scheme was developed to facilitate and minimize queues in and out of ships. Also, service performance was optimized through behavior analysis and queuing system stability. This study focused on designing the max-plus algebra model and time estimation on the incoming ship service scheme. The results showed that the InaPortNet system is useful for modeling. Furthermore, the max-plus algebra matrix is used to obtain an estimated service time from registration to the ship docking process at the port. However, further study needs to be carried out by scheduling the max-plus algebraic matrix in order to analyze the behavior and stability of the queuing system
RAINBOW VERTEX-CONNECTION NUMBER ON COMB PRODUCT OPERATION OF CYCLE GRAPH (C_4) AND COMPLETE BIPARTITE GRAPH (K_(3,N)) Yahya, Nisky Imansyah; Fatmawati, Ainun; Nurwan, Nurwan; Nasib, Salmun K
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0673-0684

Abstract

Rainbow vertex-connection number is the minimum colors assignment to the vertices of the graph, such that each vertex is connected by a path whose edges have distinct colors and is denoted by . The rainbow vertex connection number can be applied to graphs resulting from operations. One of the methods to create a new graph is to perform operations between two graphs. Thus, this research uses comb product operation to determine rainbow-vertex connection number resulting from comb product operation of cycle graph and complete bipartite graph & . The research finding obtains the theorem of rainbow vertex-connection number at the graph of for while the theorem of rainbow vertex-connection number at the graph of for for .
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TAGUCHI METHOD WITH TRAPEZOIDAL FUZZY NUMBER IN THE TOFUPRODUCTION PROCESS Wungguli, Djihad; Isa, Jefri N.; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta; Nurwan, Nurwan; Nasib, Salmun K; Junus, Stella
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1313-1324

Abstract

Indonesians consume more tofu every week, proving that it is one of the country's most well-liked and potential food ingredients. Therefore, several people benefit from this positive potential as a business opportunity and improve the quality of their products as part of a market competition strategy. This study uses the Taguchi method and fuzzy logic to optimize the multi-response characteristic tofu production process. These multi-responses include water and protein content, each of which has the characteristics of "nominal is best" and "larger is better". In this experiment, three independent variables were varied: soybean soaking time, soybean porridge boiling time, and tofu lump pressing time. The experimental design used is the orthogonal matrix L9. This study aims to determine the optimal combination of independent variables and determine the contribution of each varible to the multi-response of water content and protein content simultaneously. The findings indicated that soaking soybeans for 4 hours, boiling soybean porridge for 70 minutes, and pressing tofu lumps for 20 minutes are the ideal settings to produce optimal multi-response simultaneously. Additionally, the duration of soybeans soaking contributed 14,74%, the duration of boiling soybean porridge contributed 29,50%, and the duration of pressing lumps of tofu contributed 38,18% to the multi-response.
Prediksi Harga Emas Dunia Menggunakan Deep Learning GRU dengan Optimasi Nadam Harmain, Ismail Saputra R.; Nurwan, Nurwan; Hasan, Isran K.; Wungguli, Djihad; Yahya, Nisky Imansyah
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 4, No 6 (2025): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v4i6.36007

Abstract

Volatilitas harga emas yang tinggi menuntut adanya metode prediksi yang andal untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini mengimplementasikan algoritma Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) berbasis deep learning yang dioptimalkan menggunakan Nesterov-Accelerated Adaptive Moment Estimation (Nadam) untuk memprediksi harga emas harian.Model terbaik diperoleh dengan nilai Mean Squared Error (MSE) sebesar 0, 00012 pada data univariat dan 0, 00027 pada data multivariat. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) yang diperoleh masing-masing sebesar 1,107% untuk data univariat dan 1,59% untuk data multivariat. Hasil tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa model GRU dengan optimasi Nadam memiliki performa prediksi yang tinggi, baik pada data deret waktu tanpa penambahan fitur maupun dengan penambahan fitur.
Reformulation and Generalization Of Van Aubel's Theorem Using Complex Variables Laiya, Gusti Hari Fajar; Asriadi, Asriadi; Achmad, Novianita; Ismail, Sumarno; Nurwan, Nurwan
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.9051

Abstract

This research aims to reformulate and generalize Van Aubel’s Theorem using a complex number approach. Classically, Van Aubel’s Theorem states that if squares are constructed externally on the sides of an arbitrary quadrilateral, then the line segments connecting the centers of opposite squares are congruent and perpendicular to each other. Through a complex algebra approach, this research systematically reconstructs the proof of the theorem and extends its application to more complex geometric forms. The representation of points, rotations, and lines in the complex plane is employed to reprove and develop generalizations of the theorem. The results demonstrate that the use of complex numbers facilitates geometric analysis and reveals new patterns in geometric relationships. This research contributes to the advancement of modern geometry through algebraic methods and opens opportunities for further exploration of complex numbers in solving other geometric problems.
Implementation of the Reading to Learn Model to Improve Numeracy Literacy Skills at Smp Negeri 2 Suwawa Ismail, Sri Rahmawati; Nurwan, Nurwan; Kobandaha, Putri Ekawaty
Journal of Educational Sciences Vol. 9 No. 5 (2025): Journal of Educational Sciences
Publisher : FKIP - Universitas Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31258/jes.9.5.p.3388-3397

Abstract

Education today emphasizes the importance of numeracy literacy as part of the basic competencies in the Merdeka Curriculum. Numeracy literacy is an essential skill for students to understand and use mathematics in real-life contexts. This study aims to examine the influence of the Reading to Learn learning model on students' mathematical numeracy literacy skills in statistical material. This study uses a quantitative approach with a post-test-only control group design. Two eighth-grade classes at SMP Negeri 2 Suwawa were randomly selected as the sample. The experimental class was taught using the Reading to Learn model, while the control class received conventional instruction. The research instrument is an essay test that has been validated to measure mathematical numeracy literacy. Data analysis shows that the distribution is normal and the variance is homogeneous. The independent samples t-test revealed a significant difference between the post-test scores of the two groups, with the experimental class achieving a higher average. The effect size, calculated using Cohen's d, is 3.53, indicating a strong effect. These results indicate that the Reading to Learn model significantly improves students' mathematical numeracy literacy. This model helps students understand concepts contextually, think critically, and actively participate in learning.
MAKING BAYESIAN DISEASE MAPPING EASY AND INTERACTIVE: AN R SHINY APPLICATION Aswi, Aswi; Tiro, Muhammad Arif; Sudarmin, Sudarmin; Sukarna, Sukarna; Awi, Awi; Nurwan, Nurwan; Cramb, Susanna
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 16, No 2 (2023): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.16.2.148-159

Abstract

Spatial analysis of count data is important in epidemiology and other domains to identify spatial patterns. While Bayesian spatial models are a popular approach, they do require detailed knowledge of the process for model fitting, checking, and visualising results. Although a number of R packages are available to simplify running the model, there are still complexities when checking the model. This paper aims to provide a user-friendly and interactive R Shiny web application for the analysis of spatial data using Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive Leroux models. The web application is built with the integration of the R packages shiny and CARBayes. The required data are the number of cases, population, and optionally some covariates for each region. In this case, we used Covid-19 data in 2021 in South Sulawesi province, Indonesia. This application enables fitting a Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux model under several hyperpriors and selecting the most appropriate through comparing several goodness of fit measures. The application also enables checking convergence, plus obtaining and visualising in an interactive map the relative risk of disease for each region.