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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Sains Dasar Journal of Mathematics Education and Application (JMEA) Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research Edu Sains: Jurnal Pendidikan Sains dan Matematika JMPM: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Matematika UNAND Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting (DIJEFA) Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Indonesian Journal of Applied Research (IJAR) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi JES-MAT (Jurnal Edukasi dan Sains Matematika) Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Educational Sciences Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Hexagon: Jurnal Ilmu dan Pendidikan Matematika Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Nurwan, Nurwan
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Wind Speed Category Characteristics in Bone Bolango Regency: A Markov Chain Approach Using the Beaufort Scale and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm Saiful Pomahiya; Nurwan Nurwan; Nisky Imansyah Yahya; Salmun K. Nasib; Isran K. Hasan; Asriadi Asriadi
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp63-68

Abstract

This study models daily wind speed transitions in the Bone Bolango Regency using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, employing the Beaufort scale for wind speed classification. The research aims to predict the steady-state distribution of wind speeds and evaluate their temporal stability. Daily wind speed data from 2023, provided by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), were categorized into three levels: calm, light breeze, and fresh breeze, based on the Beaufort scale. Transition probabilities were estimated using the Beta distribution, and simulations via the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm yielded the steady-state distribution. Results show a significant tendency for transitions from calm and light breeze categories to fresh breezes, with varying probabilities. Notably, calm conditions exhibit a 69% likelihood of transitioning to a light breeze. This research contributes to improving wind speed prediction models by integrating statistical algorithms with meteorological classifications. The findings have implications for enhancing short-term weather forecasts and developing predictive systems for regions with similar weather patterns.
Co-Authors Abdul Wahab Abdulah, Siska Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Ahaya, Sitty Oriza Sativa Putri Aini Fitriyah Armayani Arsal Artes Jr., Rosalio Aryasandi, I Wayan Can Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Aznaim, Aznaim Bertu Rianto Takaendengan Bilondatu, Rosna Ningsih Buhungo, Rayhanul Jannah Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Djihad Wungguli Evi Hulukati Fadilah Istiqomah Pammus Fatmawati, Ainun Franky Alfrits Oroh Hamid Habbe, Abdul Hasan S. Panigoro Hubu, Anisa Fitra Dila Husain, Moh Rizal Isa, Jefri N. Ismail, Sri Rahmawati Isnawati, Ayus Riana Isran K Hasan Jusuf, Anryan K. Hasan, Isran K. Nasib, Salmun Kartin Usman Kobandaha, Putri Ekawaty La Ode Nashar Lailany Yahya Laiya, Gusti Hari Fajar Lakisa, Narti Macmud, Tedy Majid, Majid Muanalifah, Any Muhammad Rezky F. Payu Nadhilah, Farhah NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Nisky Imansyah Yahya Nteseo, Sutriany Paudi, Rivka Perry Zakaria Rahim, Delvira Masita Rahmi, Emli Ramadiana, Anastasya Rauf, Dewi Nur Angriani Rauf, Moh Dody Afandi Resmawan Resmawan Rosalio Artes Jr Saiful Pomahiya Salmun K. Nasib Sari, Lia Nanda Sembiring, Rinawati Siti Zakiyah Stella Junus Sumarno Ismail Syamsu Qomar Badu Usali, Rahmayunda Utina, Fitriani Yamin Ismail Yanuari, Eka Dicky D Yuli Sagita