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All Journal Jurnal TIMES Pendas : Jurnah Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar QARDHUL HASAN: MEDIA PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Tourism Scientific Journal Bahtera Indonesia; Jurnal Penelitian Bahasa dan Sastra Indonesia Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika These proceedings represent the work of researchers participating in The International Conference on Elementary Education (ICEE) which is being hosted by the Elementary Education Study Programme School of Postgraduate Studies, Universitas Pendidikan Jurnal Mahasiswa Sistem Informasi (JMSI) Review of Multidisciplinary Education, Culture and Pedagogy (ROMEO) Golden Ratio of Social Science and Education Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Manajemen Jurnal Riset Pendidikan dan Pengajaran (JRPP) JURNAL SAINS DAN TEKNOLOGI MARITIM Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Manajemen dan Pariwisata Journal of Islamic Law El Madani
fajri, khoirul
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Penerapan Metode SARIMA untuk Peramalan Frekuensi Curah Hujan Bulanan di Sumatera Utara Fajri, khoirul
Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 8, No 2 (2026): Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/imajiner.v8i2.26717

Abstract

Variabilitas iklim ekstrem di Provinsi Sumatera Utara menuntut strategi mitigasi bencana yang presisi, mengingat tingginya risiko bahaya hidrometeorologi di wilayah tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun model peramalan curah hujan yang tangguh (robust) dengan mengintegrasikan data deret waktu (2010–2025) dari Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem menggunakan pendekatan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Melalui prosedur iteratif Box-Jenkins dan evaluasi kriteria informasi (AIC), model $SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_{12}$ teridentifikasi sebagai estimator terbaik yang mampu menangkap pola musiman dan tren stokastik secara akurat, dengan validasi Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) sebesar 82,11 mm. Proyeksi untuk tahun 2026 mengindikasikan eskalasi curah hujan yang signifikan selama periode Oktober hingga Desember, yang menandai fase kritis bagi potensi banjir. Temuan ini memberikan dasar ilmiah kuantitatif bagi pembuat kebijakan untuk memperkuat sistem peringatan dini dan mengoptimalkan manajemen risiko bencana nasional.
Strategi Pengelolaan Paket Wisata Inbound oleh Perusahaan Perjalanan Anggota Association of The Indonesian Tours & Trvel Agencies (ASITA) dalam Mengembangkan Pariwisata di Jawa Barat Fajri, Khoirul; Safari, Apay
Manajemen dan Pariwisata Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Pariwisata Yapari (STIEPAR YAPARI) Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32659/jmp.v5i1.611

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the strategies used by the Association of The Indonesian Tours & Travel Agencies (ASITA) West Java DPD and Travel Agencies (BPW) to improve West Java tourism through the management of inbound tour packages. This study aims to identify the factors that influence the management of inbound tour packages in the process of developing West Java tourism in different eras. The identified problem is the ineffective management of Inbound Tours by ASITA member travel agencies during the Covid-19 pandemic. Many travel agencies are still focused on ticket sales and domestic or international tour packages. To evaluate this issue, the study uses the theory of Rejeki and Hantoro (2020:59) through three stages of tour package organization, namely: (a) preparation or creation of tour package products, (b) administration of tour package organization, and (c) tour implementation (tour operation). This research employs a descriptive qualitative method with data collection techniques through observation, interviews, and literature studies supported by Focused Group Discussion (FGD). The results of this study show that the strategies of ASITA member travel agencies are quite good; however, the variety of tour products is still limited, prices are competitive, and promotional efforts are not yet optimal. The main factors are the lack of experienced human resources and government regulations regarding foreign tourist permits after the pandemic. The researcher recommends that the development of inbound tourism should be carried out with more diverse product variations, intensive promotions, and collaboration between the government and tourism stakeholders to attract international tourists and increase foreign exchange earnings.
Co-Authors Ade Priyanto, Ade Ade saputra Adrian Agoes Afriza, Lia Albana, Ilham Apriyanto, Ade Astiana, Rachmat Aulia, Putri Rizki Clarissa, Emia Dadang Sunendar Depi, Depi efendi, Irfan Hadi Mulyana ISKANDARWASSID ISKANDARWASSID, ISKANDARWASSID Kartika, Titing Khusna, Nela M. Syaiful Amin Masrurih, M. Misni, Hafanza Mustamil, Mustamil Muzdalifah Muzdalifah Naufal, Muji Zaen Nurindah, Siti Safari, Apay Sondari, Sondari Subaweh, Ahmad Maskur Sumiadi, Sumiadi Surito, Surito Triwahyu, Mohammad Umar, Zaidan Unes Warliyanto, Warliyanto