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NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA

Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Author-ID : 1764220

Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Determination of Premium Price for Rice Crop Insurance in Gorontalo Province Based on Rainfall Index with Black Scholes Method Nadiyyah, Ana; Rahmi, Emli; Nasib, Salmun K.; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Yahya, Nisky Imansyah; Nashar, La Ode
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp51-62

With its complex topography, Gorontalo Province experiences significant rainfall variations that impact the agricultural sector, particularly rice crops. These variations can cause substantial losses for farmers. One way to address uncertain probabilities caused by rainfall is through agricultural insurance. This research aims to calculate the value of agricultural insurance premiums based on the rainfall index. The Black- Scholes method is used to calculate the premiums, while the Burn Analysis method is employed to determine the rainfall index. The research results classify the rainfall index values in Gorontalo Province into 7 (seven) percentiles. The lowest is at the 20th percentile, with 17.37 mm and a premium value of IDR 1,574,190, while the highest is at the 80th percentile, with 17.65 mm and a premium value of IDR 2,154,574. This indicates that the higher the rainfall, the greater the premium to be paid.

Wind Speed Category Characteristics in Bone Bolango Regency: A Markov Chain Approach Using the Beaufort Scale and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm Pomahiya, Saiful; Nurwan, Nurwan; Yahya, Nisky Imansyah; Nasib, Salmun K.; Hasan, Isran K.; Asriadi, Asriadi
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp63-68

This study models daily wind speed transitions in the Bone Bolango Regency using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, employing the Beaufort scale for wind speed classification. The research aims to predict the steady-state distribution of wind speeds and evaluate their temporal stability. Daily wind speed data from 2023, provided by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), were categorized into three levels: calm, light breeze, and fresh breeze, based on the Beaufort scale. Transition probabilities were estimated using the Beta distribution, and simulations via the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm yielded the steady-state distribution. Results show a significant tendency for transitions from calm and light breeze categories to fresh breezes, with varying probabilities. Notably, calm conditions exhibit a 69% likelihood of transitioning to a light breeze. This research contributes to improving wind speed prediction models by integrating statistical algorithms with meteorological classifications. The findings have implications for enhancing short-term weather forecasts and developing predictive systems for regions with similar weather patterns.

Co-Authors Afifah Farhanah Akadji Afifah Farhanah Akadji Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Akadji, Afifah Farhanah Amelia T. R. Sidik Armayani Arsal Aruchamy, Pradeepa Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Ayyasy, Muhammad Yahya Bertu Rianto Takaendengan Cindy Aisa Putri Noor Dennynatalis Taha Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Dhandapani, Prasantha Bharathi Djihad Wungguli Fatmawati, Ainun Franky Alfrits Oroh Fuzi Sandra Talibo Ganesan, Gomathi Hamani, Mohamad Taufik Harmain, Ismail Saputra R. Harun, Trieke Nurfadilah Hasan S. Panigoro Husuna, Cabelita Imran, Nurain Indrawati Lihawa Ismail Djakaria Isran K Hasan Jusuf, Anryan K. Nasib, Salmun Kai, Ferawati Karim, Finansiya S. Abd. Karina Anselia Mamonto Kasim, Afrianto Pratama Khairun Nisa Humolungo Kiayi, Fuji Fauzia La Ode Nashar Lailany Yahya Lailany Yahya Lakisa, Narti Lakoro, Tiara Mahagaonkar, Pralahad Meilan Sigar Melisa Huntala Mita Sari Mohamad Rivaldi Moha Mokodompit, Marcela Muhammad Rezky F. Payu Muhammad Rifai Katili Nadiyyah, Ana Narti Lakisa Novianita Achmad Novria Fatmawati Lakutu Nurmardia Abdussamad, Siti Nursiya Bito Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Periyannan, Jayalakshmi Pomahiya, Saiful Pranata, Widya Eka Prasetyo, Deny Ardika Rahim, Delvira Masita Rahmi, Emli Randi Mooduto Rauf, Dewi Nur Angriani Resmawan Resmawan Salmun K. Nasib Salmun K. Nasib Saravanakumar, Anitha Sari, Septi Rahmita Sembiring, Rinawati Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sri Lestari Mahmud Suharmin, Wandayana Nur'Amanah Sumarno Ismail Taha, Dennynatalis Tahir, Fauzia D Tahir, Fauzia D. Taufik, Mohamad Alfiransyah Wahab, Nur Dhea Wahdania A.T. Ja’a Wewengkang, Hanz Franklyn Bachruddin Zulkifli Alamtaha

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