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All Journal MATEMATIKA JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Humaniora CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Matematika dan Sains Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence Prosiding SI MaNIs (Seminar Nasional Integrasi Matematika dan Nilai-Nilai Islami) Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan Cakrawala: Jurnal Litbang Kebijakan PengabdianMu: Jurnal Ilmiah Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik JP2M (Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Matematika) G-Tech : Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Inferensi Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Jurnal Keselamatan Transportasi Jalan (Indonesian Journal of Road Safety) Jurnal Layanan Masyarakat (Journal of Public Service) PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS Jurnal Keselamatan Transportasi Jalan Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Toha Saifudin
Departement Of Mathematics, Faculty Of Science And Technology, Airlangga University
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Peningkatan Kompetensi Guru dalam Analisis Data Hasil Pembelajaran dengan Metode Statistika Menggunakan Microsoft Excel di SD Muhammadiyah 1 Trenggalek: Improving Teachers’ Competence in Analyzing Learning Outcomes Data Using Statistical Methods with Microsoft Excel at SD Muhammadiyah 1 Trenggalek Rifada, Marisa; Saifudin, Toha; Kurniawan, Ardi; Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina; Maharani, Prima; Sentosa, Martha Ayu
PengabdianMu: Jurnal Ilmiah Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): PengabdianMu: Jurnal Ilmiah Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Institute for Research and Community Services Universitas Muhammadiyah Palangkaraya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33084/pengabdianmu.v11i1.10675

Abstract

Muhammadiyah 1 Trenggalek Elementary School is one of the leading private elementary schools in Trenggalek Regency that implements an innovative system in its learning and has a strong commitment to improving the quality of education. However, most of the teachers in this elementary school still lack understanding of the concept of statistics along with the application of technology to analyze student learning data, so that the evaluation of student learning outcomes becomes less than optimal. Therefore, this community service program is carried out to provide intensive training on basic understanding of statistics, the use of Microsoft Excel to process data, and the application of analysis results to improve teaching methods. This program was carried out through several stages, consisting of providing offline training and assistance to groups of teachers in applying the training results to student learning data. The evaluation results show an increase in teacher understanding of the training material provided, with evidence of an increase in the average pre-test score of 64.46 to 71.08 in the post-test. Thus, this community service activity can be said to have succeeded in increasing teacher competence in using Microsoft Excel as a means of analyzing student learning data, which is also a start to improving the quality of Muhammadiyah 1 Trenggalek Elementary School teachers.
FORECASTING THE INFLATION RATE IN INDONESIA USING ARIMA-GARCH MODEL Saifudin, Toha; Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Afifa, Fitriana Nur; Arrofah, Aini Divayanti; Fauzi, Doni Muhammad; Pratama, Fachriza Yosa; Adyatma, Isryad Yoga
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 2 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss2pp0955-0970

Abstract

Inflation is a key economic indicator that affects purchasing power, economic growth, and financial stability. Accurate forecasting is essential for policymakers to implement effective monetary and fiscal policies. However, traditional models like ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) mainly capture general trends and often fail to address inflation volatility. This study enhances inflation forecasting accuracy by applying the ARIMA-GARCH hybrid model, which combines trend estimation with volatility modelling. Focusing on Indonesia’s inflation patterns using recent data, it addresses a gap in existing research. This type of research uses quantitative methods, and the data were obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia. The dataset consists of 240 monthly Indonesian inflation data points spanning from September 2004 to August 2024. The ARIMA (0,1,1)-GARCH (2,0) model is used to analyze inflation trends and volatility dynamics. The model evaluation shows strong predictive performance, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.73% and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.74 for training data. Testing data results in a MAPE of 18.95% and RMSE of 0.702, which remains within an acceptable range. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating volatility modelling in inflation forecasting to enhance economic decision-making. A reliable forecast mitigates economic uncertainty, thereby providing a stronger foundation for achieving long-term economic growth. This study contributes by demonstrating the practical application of ARIMA-GARCH in Indonesia’s inflation modelling, providing valuable insights for policymakers in managing inflation-related risks.
SPATIAL EXTRAPOLATION OF MALARIA CASES IN CENTRAL PAPUA USING CO-KRIGING BASED ON RAINFALL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM PAPUA PROVINCE Saifudin, Toha; Chamidah, Nur; Zhafira, Azizah Atsariyyah; Budijono, Gabriella Agnes; Sihite, Rivaldi; Baihaqi, Mochamad; Januarta, R. Arya
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 2 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss2pp1485-1500

Abstract

Malaria is an infectious disease that remains a significant health burden in Indonesia, particularly in Papua Province. This province has the highest malaria incidence rate nationally, influenced by various environmental factors such as rainfall. This study aims to estimate the number of malaria cases in districts/cities of Central Papua Province that do not have direct observation data, by utilizing the Co-Kriging method based on rainfall as a secondary variable and malaria cases as a primary variable from Papua Province. The secondary data used in this study were obtained from the official website of the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of Papua Province, which includes the number of malaria cases in districts/cities as well as rainfall data from meteorological stations in the same region, collected in 2023. Three types of semivariogram models-spherical, exponential, and gaussian-were used to select the best model through statistical evaluation using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the Gaussian semivariogram model provided the most optimal prediction results with an MSE of 10.895 and an MAPE of 4.67%. The estimates show that malaria cases in Central Papua are relatively uniform, with the highest incidence in Puncak Jaya district (219/1000 population) and the lowest in Mimika district (211/1,000 population). This approach is expected to be an important tool in spatially based disease planning and control and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially goals 3 (Good Health and Well-Being) and 13 (Climate Action).
Pemodelan Kasus Tuberkulosis di Jawa Tengah dengan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression Andini Putri Mediani; Toha Saifudin; Nur Chamidah
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 21 No. 3 (2024): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 21 Nomor 3 Edisi No
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Tuberkulosis (TB) dianggap sebagai permasalahan kesehatan global yang utama karena menjadi salah satu penyakit menular yang mematikan di seluruh dunia. World Health Organization (WHO) mengategorikan sebanyak 30 negara di dunia dengan beban tinggi kasus TB dengan Negara Indonesia menempati peringkat kedua dalam kategori beban tinggi tersebut. Salah satu provinsi dengan penderita terbanyak kasus TB adalah Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Banyaknya penderita TB di Kabupaten Jawa Tengah menunjukkan bahwa terdapat faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi tingginya kasus TB, sehingga perlu dilakukan analisis secara statistik untuk mengetahui penyebab terjadinya permasalahan tersebut sekaligus mendukung tercapainya target yang berkaitan dengan target SDGs pada poin 3.3, yaitu untuk mengakhiri epidemi TB. Pada jumlah kasus TB yang berupa data diskrit, regresi Poisson merupakan metode yang sesuai untuk memodelkan data diskrit dengan asumsi ekuidispersi yang harus terpenuhi. Namun, untuk kasus TB di Jawa Tengah asumsi tersebut tidak terpenuhi, dengan kata lain terdapat overdispersi. Overdispersi dapat ditangani dengan regresi Binomial Negatif, tetapi dengan mempertimbangkan faktor spasial metode yang sesuai untuk digunakan adalah Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). Hasil diperoleh fungsi pembobot untuk GWNBR adalah Fixed Gaussian dengan nilai CV terkecil 4427790. Pemodelan dengan GWNBR lebih baik dalam memodelkan jika dibandingkan dengan regresi global. Hal ini diperkuat oleh nilai AIC terkecil, yakni 370,14 sehingga permasalahan overdispersi sudah teratasi. Kemudian, variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan pada setiap kabupaten dan kota di Jawa Tengah adalah persentase rumah tangga yang memiliki sumber air minum layak, jumlah tenaga kesehatan, rasio jenis kelamin, dan jumlah penduduk usia produktif dengan besar pengaruh yang berbedabeda.
Co-Authors Abdul Aziz Aditya Syarifudin Akbar Adyatma, Isryad Yoga Afifa, Fitriana Nur Aflaha, Nabila Shafa Aisharezka, Mutiara Aisyah, Arlisya Shafwan Al Hasri, Ilham Maulana Aldawiyah, Najwa Khoir Alfi Nur Nitasari Alfredi Yoani Alpandi, Gaos Tipki Ana, Elly Andini Putri Mediani Angga Kusuma Bayu Viargo Aniq Atiqi Any Tsalasatul Fitriyah Ardi Kurniawan Ardi Kurniawan Ariani, Fildzah Tri Januar Ariyawan, Jovansha Arrofah, Aini Divayanti Aulia, Niswa Faizah Auliyah, Nina Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Azis, Aurelia Islami Azizah, Khansa Baihaqi, Mochamad Belindha Ayu Ardhani Budijono, Gabriella Agnes Chaerobby Fakhri Fauzaan Purwoko Christiano Ginzel, Bryan Given Christopher Andreas Dewanti, Maria Setya Dewanty, Sanda Insania Diah Puspita Ningrum Dita Amelia Dita Amelia, Dita Easyfa Wieldyanisa, Ezha Elly Ana Elly Pusporani Erfiana Erfiana Faiza, Atikah Fajrina, Sofia Falasifah, Sabrina Fatmawati Fatmawati Fauzi, Doni Muhammad Fauziah, Nathania Fina Insyiroh Firmansyah, Mochamad FIRMANSYAH, MOCHAMMAD Fitriani, Mubadi'ul Fortunata, Regina Gaos Tipki Alpandi Gaos Tipki Alpandi Hardiansyah, Fernanda Rizky Herdianto, Muhammad Hendra Ilma Amira Rahmayanti Indrasta, Irma Ayu Insania Dewanty, Sanda Januarta, R. Arya Khairian, Farhan Aldan Kholidiyah, Azizatul Leni Sartika Panjaitan Lensa Rosdiana Safitri M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Maelcardino Christopher Justin Mahadesyawardani, Arinda Maharani, Prima Makhbubah, Karina Rubita Marisa Rifada Marpaung, Josua Ronaldo Davico Marshanda Aprilia Marthabakti, CitraWani Mediani, Andini Putri Mochamad Rasyid Aditya Putra Muhammad Rosyid Ridho Az Zuhro Muzakki, Naufal Nahar, Muhammad Hafidzuddin Naura, Sheila Sevira Asteriska Nugraha, Galuh Cahya Nur Chamidah Nur chamnidah Nur Rahmah Miftakhul Jannah Nurdin, Nabila Nurrohmah, Zidni 'Ilmatun Oktavia, Sabrina Salsa Panjaitan, Leni Sartika Pratama, Fachriza Yosa Purnama, Titania Faisha Puspasari, Laili Rahayu, Rizky Dwi Kurnia Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhanti, Aulia Ramadhanty, Devira Thania Ramadhina, Fidela Sahda Ilona Recylia, Rien Risky Wahyuningsih Sa'idah, Andini Safitri, Lensa Rosdiana Salma Bethari Andjani Sumarto Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia Sa’idah Zahrotul Jannah Sediono, Sediono Sentosa, Martha Ayu Setyawan, Muhammad Daffa Bintang Shalwa Oktavrilia Kusuma Siagian, Kimberly Maserati Sihite, Rivaldi Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Sugha Faiz Al Maula Suliyanto Suliyanto Suliyanto Syaugi Sungkar, Salman Tiani Wahyu Utami Trisa, Nadya Lovita Hana Ubadah, Mohammad Noufal Valida, Hanny Victory, Johanna Tania Wahyuli, Diana Widyawati, Ayu Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa Wulandari, Indana Zulfa Yan Dwi Zhafira, Azizah Atsariyyah