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All Journal Media Statistika Statistika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Matematika: MANTIK BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (JMP) Jurnal E-Komtek Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) Tematik : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Komunikasi Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara REKA ELKOMIKA: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Indo-MathEdu Intellectuals Journal Formosa Journal of Science and Technology (FJST) Indonesian Journal of Contemporary Multidisciplinary Research Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR) Euclid Asian Journal of Applied Education BEGIBUNG: Jurnal Penelitian Multidisiplin MARAS : Jurnal Penelitian Multidisplin Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Future Academia : The Journal of Multidisciplinary Research on Scientific and Advanced PRIMER: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin
Gumgum Darmawan
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran
Religion Arts Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Peramalan Kedatangan Wisatawan Macanegara ke Provinsi Bali ‎Menggunakan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)‎ Sri Yuliana; Raihanah Rafidah; Gumgum Darmawan
Future Academia : The Journal of Multidisciplinary Research on Scientific and Advanced Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Future Academia : The Journal of Multidisciplinary Research on Scientific and A
Publisher : Yayasan Sagita Akademia Maju

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61579/future.v4i1.698

Abstract

Pariwisata Bali adalah sektor strategis dalam berperan penting terhadap perekonomian nasional, ‎khususnya sebagai penyumbang utama devisa negara dan lapangan kerja. Fluktuasi jumlah ‎wisatawan mancanegara sangat dipengaruhi oleh faktor musiman, dinamika ekonomi global, ‎perubahan tren pariwisata internasional, serta guncangan eksternal seperti krisis ekonomi dan ‎pandemi. Oleh karena itu, analisis peramalan wisatawan menjadi penting untuk memahami pola ‎kunjungan dan mendukung perencanaan kebijakan pariwisata yang adaptif dan berkelanjutan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah melakukan peramalan terhadap jumlah wisatawan ke Bali dengan menggunakan pendekatan Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Data bulanan kedatangan wisatawan (2009–2025) dianalisis dengan ‎SSA. Evaluasi akurasi dilakukan menggunakan MAPE. Model peramalan jumlah wisatawan ‎mancanegara di Provinsi Bali menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 7,23%, yang termasuk kategori ‎sangat baik menurut Lewis (1982). Model berhasil menangkap pola tren utama dan fluktuasi ‎jumlah wisatawan dengan baik, dengan tingkat kesesuaian tinggi antara data aktual dan hasil ‎prediksi.‎
Enhancing Rainfall Forecasting Performance in Bandung City Using Bi-LSTM with Grid Search Optimization on Gregorian and Lunar Calendar Data Mahdayani Putri Yunizar; Andrew Hosea Talakua; Gumgum Darmawan
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 3 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i3pp595-601

Abstract

Rainfall is a climatic factor that strongly influences human activities and plays a crucial role in decision making related to water resources, mobility, and disaster preparedness. High rainfall intensity may escalate into hydrometeorological hazards, underscoring the importance of accurate rainfall forecasting to support early warning and mitigation efforts. This study aims to compare the forecasting accuracy of monthly rainfall predictions between the Gregorian and lunar calendars using the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model optimized through a grid search approach. The method is designed to capture temporal patterns arising from the distinct structures of two asynchronous calendars. Daily rainfall data from Bandung City, Indonesia, covering the period from 2000 to 2025, were converted into monthly series in both calendar systems. The results reveal that the Gregorian calendar provides significantly better forecasting performance, achieving the lowest MAPE value of 11.60 percent at the three-month horizon. In contrast, the lunar calendar shows higher variability and reaches its best MAPE of 31.43 percent at the same horizon. These findings indicate that the Gregorian calendar offers a more stable temporal representation for rainfall forecasting in Bandung and supports improved predictive modeling for climate-related decision making.
FORECASTING OIL PRODUCTION USING SSA AND TREND REGRESSION IN THE WORLD’S TOP THREE OIL PRODUCERS Ega Saherti; Salwa Azzah Imtiyaz; Gumgum Darmawan; Budi Nurani Ruchjana
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 4 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss4pp3575-3588

Abstract

The world's primary energy source, which plays a significant role in various global sectors, is petroleum. Due to geological influences, energy policies, and geopolitical factors, oil production patterns are often fluctuating and non-stationary. This also applies to the world's of top three oil-producing countries, that is, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. This situation poses a challenge in developing accurate forecasting models to support global energy planning. This study aims to forecast oil production trends in the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method combined with Trend Regression to obtain a forecasting model capable of capturing long-term patterns and mitigating the influence of short-term fluctuations. Annual oil production data for the period 1936–2024 were taken from Our World in Data. The analysis stages include data decomposition using SSA to separate trends, noise, and cycles, followed by trend component modeling using trend regression. Model evaluation was carried out using the coefficient of determination (R²). The results of the study indicate that the SSA and Trend Regression methods are able to produce stable and accurate projections, with the highest R² value in Saudi Arabia (0.98), followed by Iraq (0.75), and the United States (0.48). All three countries show an increasing production trend until 2034 with different patterns. The SSA and Trend Regression methods are effective in capturing the complex and non-stationary dynamics of oil production. This study provides both academic and practical contributions in the application of the SSA–Trend Regression hybrid method for global oil production forecasting as well as practical contributions for policymakers in projecting global oil production trends.
Storytelling dan Permainan Edukatif dalam Menumbuhkan Kepedulian Lingkungan di SDN Babakancianjur Defi Yusti Faidah; Gumgum Darmawan; Bertho Tantular; Triyani Hendrawati; Nisrina Khoirunnisa; Anangga Arkan Thirafi; Nayadiva Shafinka; Muhammad Rafli Ramadhan; Zahra Hana Dwi Pasha
Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): Edisi Mei - Agustus
Publisher : Lembaga Dongan Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55338/jpkmn.v7i2.8914

Abstract

Pencemaran Sungai Citarum akibat limbah domestik dan industri menunjukkan pentingnya peningkatan kesadaran lingkungan sejak dini. Berdasarkan hasil observasi awal di SDN Babakancianjur, sebagian siswa masih memiliki pemahaman yang terbatas mengenai pelestarian sungai dan pengelolaan sampah. Kegiatan pengabdian ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan pemahaman dan kepedulian lingkungan siswa melalui program edukasi pelestarian sungai di SDN Babakancianjur. Program dilaksanakan pada 47 siswa kelas IV SDN Babakancianjur melalui pendekatan storytelling, permainan edukatif memilah sampah, serta aktivitas partisipatif berupa melukis pot dan menanam bibit tanaman, yang dievaluasi menggunakan desain pre-test dan post-test. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan uji paired t-test. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan adanya peningkatan pemahaman siswa mengenai pelestarian sungai dan pengelolaan sampah setelah mengikuti program edukasi. Siswa menjadi lebih mampu membedakan sampah organik dan anorganik, memahami dampak pencemaran sungai, serta menunjukkan kepedulian yang lebih baik terhadap lingkungan. Pendekatan pembelajaran interaktif juga meningkatkan partisipasi aktif dan antusiasme siswa selama kegiatan berlangsung. Persentase siswa yang memperoleh nilai 100 meningkat dari 42% pada pre-test menjadi 68% pada post-test, sedangkan hasil uji paired t-test menghasilkan p-value sebesar 0,001 yang menunjukkan adanya peningkatan pemahaman yang signifikan. Program edukasi pelestarian sungai dinilai efektif dalam mendukung penguatan kepedulian lingkungan pada siswa sekolah dasar serta mendukung pencapaian Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Co-Authors Achmad Bachrudin Akbar, Muhammad Faizal Alamanda Putri, Fariza Aldi Anugerah Sitepu Alfarisi, Widi Wildani Alifia, Wanda Aliya Auliyazhafira, Shabira Amanah Dwiadi, Qurnia Anangga Arkan Thirafi Andrew Hosea Talakua Angga Pratama Anindya Apriliyanti Pravitasari Apriliana, Linda Aribah, Rana Asrirawan Aurilia Pratiwi, Dhanti Azka Larissa Rahayu Bertho Tantular Budhi Handoko Budi Nurani Ruchjana Budianti, Laila Carissa Egytia Widiantoro Clarissa Clorinda, Chrysentia Dedi Rosadi Defi Yusti Faidah Deltha Airuzsh Lubis Dina Prariesa Ega Saherti Eko Yulian eko yulian, eko Ery Sadewo, Ery Fajar Indrayatna Farhan Bagus Prakoso Ferdian Agustiana Fitriani Azuri, Dila Hadi, Juandi Haura, Zhafira Hirlan Khaeri I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Indriani , Ayu Intan Nurma Yulita Ismatilah, Nuzila Janatin, Janatin Karin, Nabila Khaeri, Hirlan Kiki Amelia Kusuma Putri, Aisha Mahdayani Putri Yunizar Muhamad Budiman Johra Muhammad Faizal Akbar Muhammad Rafli Ramadhan Mulya Nurmansyah Ardisasmita Mulya, Callista Audrey Najwa, Sandrina Nayadiva Shafinka Neneng Sunengsih Neneng Sunengsih Nisrina Khoirunnisa Novianti Indah Putri Nurhapilah, Hani Nurul Gusriani Pian Widianingsih Puteri, Dian Islamiaty Putri Syallya, Najma Rafifah Putri, Salma Azzahra Rahman Al Madan, Aulia Raihanah Rafidah Resa Septiani Pontoh Restu Arisanti Restu Arisanti Rhafi Ahdian, Muhammad Rina Sri Kalsum Siregar Rini Luciani Rahayu Rizal Amegia Saputra Ruchjana, Budi N Ruslan Ruslan Salwa Azzah Imtiyaz Samaria Nauli, Theresia Sangrila, Ayu Sastradipraja, C K Setialaksana, Wirawan - Sitepu, Aldi Anugerah Sitohang, Yosep Oktavianus Sri Sutjiningtyas Sri Winarni Sri Yuliana Sudartianto, Sudartianto Tri Wulanda Fitri Triyani Hendrawati Utami, Yosi Febria Widodo, Valeno Glenedias Wildani Alfarisi, Widi Yasyfi Avicenna, Muhammad Yeny Krista Franty Yogo Aryo Jatmiko Yosep Oktavianus Sitohang Yusep Suparman Yuyun Hidayat Zahra Hana Dwi Pasha Zen Munawar Zulhanif Zulhanif