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Journal : Proceedings of International Conference on Multidisciplinary Engineering (ICOMDEN)

Comparison of the Results of Double Exponential Smoothing Method with Triple Exponential Smoothing for Predicting Chili Prices Nadia Saphira; Munirul Ula; Sujacka Retno
Proceedings of International Conference on Multidisciplinary Engineering (ICOMDEN) Vol. 2 (2024): Proceedings of International Conference on Multidisciplinary Engineering (ICOMDEN)
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Malikussaleh University

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Abstract

Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) is a forecasting method that combines two components level and trend, used for data with a trend pattern that tends to increase or decrease over time. In contrast, Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) incorporates three components: level, trend, and seasonality, making it suitable for data with trend and seasonal patterns. This study uses historical chili price data from 2020 to 2023, obtained from the Bank Indonesia website, managed by the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS), to compare the effectiveness of DES and TES in predicting chili prices in Medan City. Prediction accuracy was evaluated using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error). The study results show MAPE values for DES as follows: Large Red Chili 1.25%, Curly Red Chili 1.39%, Green Bird’s Eye Chili 1.14%, and Red Bird’s Eye Chili 1.13%. TES produced slightly lower MAPE values: Large Red Chili 1.25%, Curly Red Chili 1.38%, Green Bird’s Eye Chili 1.12%, and Red Bird’s Eye Chili 1.10%. The MAE values for DES are as follows: Large Red Chili 447.9, Curly Red Chili 494.83, Green Bird’s Eye Chili 430.92, and Red Bird’s Eye Chili 423.36. TES showed better accuracy with MAE values of Large Red Chili at 447, Curly Red Chili at 493.02, Green Bird’s Eye Chili at 416.2, and Red Bird’s Eye Chili at 409.36. The results conclude that Triple Exponential Smoothing performs better than Double Exponential Smoothing in predicting chili prices.
Identification of Environmental Security in Relation to Crime Rates in Simeulue Regency Using Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) Method Yopy Anfelia; Munirul Ula; Sujacka Retno
Proceedings of International Conference on Multidisciplinary Engineering (ICOMDEN) Vol. 2 (2024): Proceedings of International Conference on Multidisciplinary Engineering (ICOMDEN)
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Malikussaleh University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Criminal offenses are acts that violate criminal law and are punishable by the state, either through imprisonment, fines, or other sanctions. These offenses cause significant distress and harm to the general public, individuals, and the state. In Simeulue Regency, the number of criminal cases has been increasing annually, driven by social, economic, environmental, cultural, legal, technological, and psychological factors. This study aims to analyze the relationship between environmental security and the level of criminal cases in Simeulue Regency using the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. The data used includes criminal cases from 2019 to 2023 across 10 districts, along with environmental information such as population density, public facilities, and socioeconomic indicators. The research methodology involves data collection and cleaning, Euclidean distance calculation, parameter selection for DBSCAN, and the application of validation formulas to determine the vulnerability to criminal offenses in Simeulue Regency. The analysis results, using an epsilon parameter of 5 and MinPts of 3, yielded clusters 0, -1, and 1. Cluster 0 includes Salang and Teluk Dalam districts; cluster -1 includes Alafan, Simeulue Tengah, Simeulue Timur, Simeulue Barat, Teupah Barat, and Teupah Selatan districts; and cluster 1 includes Simeulue Cut and Teupah Tengah districts. The validation formula indicates that the highly vulnerable area is in Simeulue Timur district, while the at-risk areas are Teupah Tengah, Teluk Dalam, and Teupah Barat districts. The areas classified as not at risk are Alafan, Salang, Simeulue Tengah, Simeulue Cut, Simeulue Barat, and Teupah Selatan districts. This study provides insights into areas that require increased attention in efforts to address and prevent criminal offenses. Keywords: environmental security, criminal offenses, DBSCAN, clustering, Simeulue Regency