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Agnes Quartina Pudjiastuti
Program Studi Magister Ekonomi Pertanian Sekolah Pascasarjana Universitas Tribhuwana Tungga Dewi, Malang
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The Influence of Production Factors, Prices, and Macroeconomic Conditions on Timor-Leste's Coffee Export Volume Mariela Seixas Miranda; Agnes Quartina Pudjiastuti; Cakti Indra Gunawan
IRDH International Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): February
Publisher : International Research and Development for Human Beings (IRDH)

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Abstract

Coffee is one of Timor-Leste’s leading export commodities, playing a crucial role in foreign exchange earnings and rural livelihoods. However, the performance of coffee exports has shown considerable fluctuations over time. This study aims to examine the effects of export coffee prices, domestic coffee production, domestic coffee prices, coffee plantation area, inflation, and per capita coffee consumption on the volume of coffee exports in Timor-Leste during the period 2002–2024.  This research employs time series secondary data obtained from UN Comtrade, the World Bank, the International Coffee Organization, and national statistical sources. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach.  The results indicate that all independent variables jointly have a significant effect on coffee export volume. Partially, export coffee prices, domestic coffee production, coffee plantation area, and per capita coffee consumption have a positive and significant effect on coffee export volume. Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices and inflation do not show a significant effect. These findings suggest that Timor-Leste’s coffee export performance is more strongly influenced by international market factors and production capacity than by domestic macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, policies aimed at increasing coffee exports should focus on strengthening production capacity, expanding plantation areas, and enhancing the competitiveness of Timor-Leste coffee in global markets
Co-Authors Abda Abda Alfines, Alfines Amir Hamzah Anak Agung Keswari Krisnandika Apria Fransiska Aristo, Mario Andri Aron, Robertus Asgar, Forestio Baksih, Baksih Bambang Purwiyono BERE, NOPRIANO Budi Prihatminingtyas Budi Prihatminingtyas Cakti Indra Gunawan Ceme, Grogorius Ciet, Markus Dangkung, Lukas Irwantus David Kaluge Dyanasari, Dyanasari Elisia Elisia, Elisia Eri Yusnita Arvianti Fahmi, Mijar Alif Farah Mutiara Firliyan, Enis Fransiska, Apria Gede Mekse Korri Arisena Grogorius Ceme Halimaking, Rosalina Ose Haluwalu, Fredi Tungga Hardiyanto, Yosef Harmono, Harmono Hary Sanjaya Hendrik Suhendri Hendrik Suhendri, Hendrik Indayati, Dewi Irensius, Irensius Isidorus Banggut Ismindarto, Anang Jenarung, Refli Firman Jusuf Sugiharto Kamil, Mohammad Kartini, Maria Talisia Kholil, A. Yusuf Kopek, Jeki Kurniasih, Defa Lebu, Junaidi Bebe Leksono, Anita Lende, Marselinus Lero, Oni Ringgu Ludovikus Ronaldus Unta Lukas Irwantus Dangkung Ma’sum, Zuhdi Mamo, Maria Frida Maria Wini Dowa Mariela Seixas Miranda Marpaung, Jupri Johanes SM Mayor, Fenny Marthina Meilani, Ema Mendonca, Agustinho Muljawan, Rikawanto Eko Nazizah, Nur Neri, Fhilipus Ninin Khoirunnisa’ Nur Ida Iriani Nur Ida Iriani Nurhananto, Dwi Asnawi Nurhananto, Dwi Asnawi Onifasia Adah Palus, Fridolin Triayen Pebrianto, Petrus Pebryanto, Alfredo Piran, Ronaldus Don Prasetyo Nugroho Priyambodo, Ayu Wulandari Rikarti, Eugenesia Yuliani Ririn Khuswati Rizky Ardianto Robertus Cio Rofiatin, Umi Rofiatin, Umi Rofiatin Sa'edi, Sa'edi Sadiyah, Ana Arifatus Saputra, Stephens Ermanda Sardan, Sardan Segara, Bayu Setiaji, Jatmiko Son Suwasono, Son Sri Andika Putri Sri Kusmaryatun Sriyutun Saghu, Yustina Suhudi . Sumarno . Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Sumarno Tallo, Yohanes Fischer Tirta Yoga Toni, Toni Ubu Weking, Maria Magdalena Prasedis Umbu Tamu, Marselinus Roberto Wahid, Moh. Waty, Klaudia Rewinda Widowati Yulita Yulita Zuhdi Ma’sum Zulkarnain Zulkarnain