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METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN ARIMA UNTUK MERAMALKAN KEBUTUHAN AIR PELANGGAN PT PETRO KARYA NIAGA Mualief, Muhammad; Dhartikasari, Efta; Jufriyanto, Moh.
RADIAL : Jurnal Peradaban Sains, Rekayasa dan Teknologi Vol. 11 No. 2 (2023): RADIAL: JuRnal PerADaban SaIns RekAyasan dan TeknoLogi
Publisher : Universitas Bina Taruna Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37971/radial.v11i2.417

Abstract

Abstrak: Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Arima untuk Meramalkan Kebutuhan Air Pelanggan PT Petro Karya Niaga Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mendapatkan metode peramalan terbaik dalam memprediksi kebutuhan air pelanggan PT PKN dengan membandingkan metode double exponential smoothing dan metode ARIMA. Data yang digunakan permintaan air PT Petro karya Niaga dengan periode Juni 2020 hingga September 2023. Berdasarkan penelitian ini. Hasil prediksi permintaan Penjualan PT PKN menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari periode Oktober 2023 - Maret 2024 berturut – turut pada bulan Oktober 2023 sebesar 833.596, November 2023 sebesar 825.279, Desember 2023 sebesar 816.961, Januari 2024 sebesar 808.643, Februari 2024 sebesar 800.326, Maret 2024 sebesar 792.008. Nilai error yang diperoleh yaitu MSE 44405.82. Berdasarkan hasil identifikasi model ARIMA hanya terdapat 1 model saja yang layak untuk dijadikan model persamaan peramalan yaitu ARIMA (0,2,1), Model ARIMA (0,2,1) mempunyai nilai MSE sebesar 50168. maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa model yang paling baik digunakan adalah model ARIMA (0,2,1) untuk model peramalan permintaan air PT Petro Karya Niaga. Hasil prediksi yang diperoleh dari bulan 2023 - Maret 2024 berturut – turut secara berurutan adalah 810.57; 796.78, 783.65, 771.17, 759.33 dan 748.15. Metode double exponential smoothing lebih unggul dibandingkan metode ARIMA dalam memprediksi kebutuhan air di PT PKN karena menghasilkan nilai MSE yang lebih kecil dan waktu komputasi yang lebih cepat dibandingkan ARIMA. Kata kunci: ARIMA, Double Exponential Smoothing, MSE Abstract: Double Exponential Smoothing and Arima Methods for Predicting Water Needs of PT Petro Karya Niaga Customers The aim of this research is to obtain the best forecasting method in predicting the water needs of PT PKN customers by comparing the double exponential smoothing method and the ARIMA method. The data used is PT Petro Karya Niaga's water demand for the period June 2020 to September 2023. Based on this research. PT PKN Sales demand prediction results using the Double Exponential Smoothing method from the period October 2023 - March 2024 respectively in October 2023 amounted to 833,596, November 2023 amounted to 825,279, December 2023 amounted to 816,961, January 2024 amounted to 808,643, February 2024 amounted to 800,326, March 2024 amounting to 792,008. The error value obtained is MSE 44405.82. Based on the results of identifying the ARIMA model, there is only 1 model that is suitable to be used as a forecasting equation model, namely ARIMA (0,2,1). The ARIMA (0,2,1) model has an MSE value of 50168. So it can be concluded that the model is the best used is the ARIMA model (0,2,1) for PT Petro Karya Niaga's water demand forecasting model. The prediction results obtained from 2023 - March 2024 respectively are 810.57; 796.78, 783.65, 771.17, 759.33 and 748.15. The double exponential smoothing method is superior to the ARIMA method in predicting water needs at PT PKN because it produces a smaller MSE value and faster computing time than ARIMA. Keywords: ARIMA, Double Exponential Smoothing, MSE
Quality Control Analysis of Sickle Products Using Statistical Quality Control (SQC) and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Arief, Fatikhul; Jufriyanto, Moh.
G-Tech: Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Vol 9 No 4 (2025): G-Tech, Vol. 9 No. 4 October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Raden Rahmat, Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/g-tech.v9i4.8059

Abstract

PT. ABC is a manufacturing company that produces agricultural and plantation tools, with one of its superior products being sickles. The main problem faced by the company lies in the high number of defective products in sickle, so this study was conducted with the aim of minimizing defects in these products. This study applied the Statistical Quality Control (SQC) method as a quality management approach to control product quality through the integration of the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and SQC methods. Primary data was obtained through interviews to identify the causes of product defects, while secondary data was obtained from production reports and the company's defect count. Based on the results of the analysis using a pareto diagram, it was found that 88% of quality problems were caused by cracks in the sickle blades. Furthermore, through Risk Priority Number (RPN) analysis, it was found that the main contributing factor was human error, namely operators who did not understand the applicable standard operating procedures (SOP), with an RPN value of 315. This finding indicates that crack defects are a dominant factor affecting product quality.
Work Accident Risk Analysis in Water Treatment Plant Laboratory of PT XYZ using JSA and HIRARC Methods Islahiyah, Azumah; Jufriyanto, Moh.
G-Tech: Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Vol 9 No 4 (2025): G-Tech, Vol. 9 No. 4 October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Raden Rahmat, Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/g-tech.v9i4.8061

Abstract

PT. XYZ produces fertilizers and chemicals for agro-industrial solutions. To maintain product quality, quality control is carried out in the water treatment laboratory. The increasing complexity of laboratory activities increases the risk of workplace accidents, such as inhaling reactive chemicals that can irritate the respiratory system and cause poisoning, or slipping while taking samples, which can cause injury. This study aims to analyze potential hazards and design control recommendations using the Job Safety Analysis (JSA) and Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Control (HIRARC) methods. Data were collected through interviews with employees and questionnaires assessing the likelihood and severity of hazards. The results of the study identified 12 potential hazards spread across 4 work activities. There were 2 very high-level hazards, 9 high-level hazards, and 1 moderate-level hazard. This study provides control recommendations to reduce risks, such as controls including the use of appropriate Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) etc., thereby supporting improved workplace safety at the PT. XYZ laboratory.
Co-Authors Achmad Agung Wahyudi Agus Setiawan Agus Setiawan Ahmad Fahrul Sholeh Ahmad Wasiur Rizqi Akhmad Ferdy Firmansyah Akhmad Wasiur Rizqi Alifiansyah Rizaldy Satya Putra Alifiansyah Rizaldy Satya Putra Alvian, Fahri Amrillah, Mohammad Suhud Andi Andi Andre Viola Andy Kurniawan Angga Prasetyo Tanto Ar Rohman, Muhammad Hafid Arief, Fatikhul Arif Rubihanto Arifin Pahlawan, Ilham Aspar MS, Rezky Fathiyah Putri Bayu Tri Susisno Bintang Muslimah, Tsaqofi Chandra Muhamadin, Rilo Cholifaturochmah Cholifaturochmah delta medika Juniarto Deny Andesta Dhartikasari, Efta Dzakiyah Widyaningrum Efta Dhartikasari Priyana Efta Dhartikasari Priyana Elly Ismiyah Emdat Suprayitno Evie Talia Nurrohmah Faisal Amir Fathurrozi, Muhammad Fatimatuz Zahra, Fatimatuz Febriantie, Eka Ladya Charyl Fiih, Ahmad Laaroiba Firmansyah, Mohammad Nabil Fitriyana, Deni Fajar Galih Dwi Suryanto Hafidah, Lailatul Hidayat Hidayat Hidayat Hidayat Hidayat Hidayat Hidayat Islahiyah, Azumah Khairul Umam Khoiriyah, Amanda Rizqi Kukuh Winarso Kurniawan, Ricky Wahyu M. Tajul Arifin Maulan Najib May Dian Susanto Moh. Dian Kurniawan Mohammad Arif Alfriyan Syah Mohammad Faisal Setyabudi Mohammad Rizal Mualief, Muhammad Muchammad Rif'an Aziz Muhamadin, Rilo Chandra Muhammad Bashori Alwi Muhammad Choirul Anam Muhammad Hasanuddin, Muhammad Muhammad Irfan Maruf Muhammad Machfud Fitrah Firmansyah Muhammad Mualief Muhammad Zahidil Mukhtar Muhammad, Katon NAFHANI, MUHAMMAD Natasya Sabrina Al Alifah Nina Aini Mahbubah Nizar Adlany Nur Qomaruddin Rafli Pahlawan, Ilham Arifin Permata Ningtyas, Alviani Hesthi Pratiwi, Palupi Adilia Pregiwati Pusporini Purwanto Purwanto R Indriawan Praja Kusuma Rabbani, Nazwa Nayya Nanita Rafly Arifin, Muhammad Rendra Yanuarsah Reza Ardiansyah Rizqy Cahya Putra Fil Akbar Said Salim Dahdah Salman Al Farisy Salwatul Aisy Satria Bayu Nugraha Satya Putra, Alifiansyah Rizaldy Sesilia, Khofidatul Setiawan, Nur Ervil Suraying, Suraying Syahputra, Rifendy Ardian thoyyibul hikam Tsaqofi Bintang Muslimah Wahyudi, Avif Mas Yanuar Pandu Negoro Yudha Adhitya Kurniawan Yulia Nur Ainiyah