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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Media Statistika Disease Prevention and Public Health Journal JURNAL PETERNAKAN Sosioinforma JUITA : Jurnal Informatika International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) JURNAL ILMIAH PETERNAKAN TERPADU J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Jambura Journal of Mathematics ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications J-ADIMAS (Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat) JURNAL AKUNTANSI KEUANGAN DAN MANAJEMEN Jurnal Pendidikan dan Kebudayaan Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika JURNAL ILMIAH GLOBAL EDUCATION Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Sains Jurnal Natural Xplore: Journal of Statistics Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Lingkungan Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya PRAGMATIS Jurnal Manajemen dan Bisnis Jurnal Medika Veterinaria Scientific Journal of Informatics Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Info Kesehatan Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Indahwati
Department Of Statistics, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Science, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
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Journal : JURNAL ILMIAH GLOBAL EDUCATION

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Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and LSTM Models to Handle Multi-Interventions in Automobile Production Forecasting Maghfiroh, Firda Aulia; Indahwati, Indahwati; Saefuddin, Asep
Jurnal Ilmiah Global Education Vol. 6 No. 4 (2025): JURNAL ILMIAH GLOBAL EDUCATION
Publisher : LPPM Institut Pendidikan Nusantara Global

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55681/jige.v6i4.4694

Abstract

Intervention refers to disturbances caused by internal or external variables, such as market changes, international events, or policy shifts. The dataset used in this study contains three intervention events, referred to as a multi-input intervention. The data consist of car production figures from PT Astra Daihatsu Motor obtained from the official GAIKINDO website. The forecasting task focuses on predicting PT Astra Daihatsu Motor’s production, which was influenced by three major interventions: policy changes in 2013, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the increase in SUV production in 2022. This study compares ARIMA and LSTM models for car production forecasting. The dataset covers monthly production data from January 2010 to June 2024, with a total of 174 observations. RMSE, MAPE, and SMAPE are employed as accuracy measures. Based on the testing data (May 2023–June 2024), the results show that the LSTM model outperforms ARIMA in capturing trend patterns, with lower error values of RMSE (4587.65), MAPE (10.37), and SMAPE (10.39), compared to ARIMA with RMSE (5059.48), MAPE (11.59), and SMAPE (10.50). Accordingly, LSTM represents a relevant and robust modeling alternative for production forecasting in operational decision-making, owing to its flexibility and strong capability in capturing complex data patterns.
Co-Authors A. A., Muftih Aditya Ramadhan Afendi , Farit Mochamad Agus Mohamad Soleh Agustini , Ni Ketut Yulia Agustini, Ni Ketut Yulia Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Alahmad, Ali Omar Aliu, Mufthi Alwi ALIU, MUFTIH ALWI Amelia, Reni Amin, Yudi Fathul Anang Kurnia Anik Djuraidah Antonius Benny Setyawan Ari Handayani Arie Anggreyani Aristawidya, Rafika ASEP SAEFUDDIN Assyifa Lala Pratiwi Hamid Aunuddin . Bagus Sartono Budi Susetyo Cahya, Septa Dwi Cahyani Oktarina Chrisinta, Debora Daswati, Oktaviyani Dea Fisyahri Akhilah Putri Dian Kusumaningrum Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Etis Sunandi Eva Wany, Eva Farit Mochamad Afendi Farit Mohamad Afendi Fatimah Fatimah Fira Nurahmah Al Aminy Fitrianto, Anwar Fulazzaky, Tahira Ghina Fauziah Hanifa Izzati Hanifa, Jasmin Nur Hari Wijayanto Harismahyanti A., Andi Hasanah, Lailatul I Gusti Putu Purnaba I Made Sumertajaya Iin Maena Indah, Yunna Mentari Irawan Irawan Jaya, Eddy Santosa Julianti, Elisa D Kamil, Farid Ikram Karunia, Nia Kefi Amtiran, Chandraone Putra Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kholidiah, Kholidiah Khusnia Nurul Khikmah Kristorio, Kevin Kusman Sadik Latifah, Leli Lestari, Nila Lili Puspita Rahayu Maghfiroh, Firda Aulia Mingka, Rizka Annisa Miranti, Ita Miranti, Ita Mohammad Masjkur Mualifah, Laily Nissa Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul Muhammad Nur Aidi Naima Rakhsyanda Narindria, Yasmin Nadhiva Nurul Fadhilah Panjaitan, Intan Juliana Pika Silvianti Puput Cahya Ambarwati Purnaningrum, Evita Putra, Stefanus Morgan Setyadi Perdana Putri, Christiana Anggraeni Ramdani, Indri Rasyid, Baharun Ray Sastri Regan, Regan Reni Amelia Reni Amelia Reza, Charolina Therezia Rifki Hamdani Rindy Anggun Pertiwi Salvina Salvina Silmi Annisa Rizki Manaf Siti Hafsah Siwi Haryu Pramesti Tina Aris Perhati Titin Agustina Titin Suhartini Titin Suhartini, Titin Utami Dyah Syafitri Vera Maya Santi Vitona, Desi Wahyudi Setyo Yenni Angraini Yuniarty, Titin Zulkarnain, Rizky _ Aunuddin